Sensex, Nifty at new record highs: Which levels to track? Here's what technical analysts say

Stock market today: Sensex, Nifty see profit booking after reaching record highs.

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty climbed to fresh record highs on Thursday, supported by firm global cues amid expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and steady foreign fund inflows.

Extending Wednesday’s gains, the Nifty scaled an all-time high of 26,306.95, surpassing its previous peak of 26,277.35 registered on September 27, 2024, while the Sensex surpassed the 86,000-mark for the first time to hit 86,026.18.

"The rally to record levels reflects upbeat market sentiment ahead of the RBI policy review next week, where hopes of a 25 basis-point rate cut are rising," Prashanth Tapse, Senior Vice President (Research), Mehta Equities told Reuters.

Tech View

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 hit a fresh all-time high today, coming 14 months after its previous peak of 26,277 on September 27, 2024. However, the rally remains narrow. From the last peak to now, only 26 Nifty stocks have delivered gains while 24 are still in the red.

Heavyweights have driven most of the upside, with Eicher Motors and BEL leading, while Trent and TMPV have lagged.

Market breadth outside the index is mixed. Midcaps are evenly split with 50 gainers and 50 losers, while smallcaps have clearly underperformed with a majority delivering negative returns.

Seasonally, December has been strong for equities, which may provide support. For broader participation, the market is closely tracking the Fed’s rate-cut path and progress on the US–India trade deal. A favourable outcome on both could revive foreign flows and fuel the next leg of the rally.

Nifty View

Looking at key levels, the zone of 26,250–26,300 zone is likely to act as an important resistance zone for the Index. Any sustained move above 26,300 could drive a fresh leg of rally in the index, potentially taking it higher towards 26500, followed by 26800. On the downside, the support has shifted higher in the zone of 26,100-26,050.

Sensex View

Looking at key levels, the zone of 85,900–86,000 zone is likely to act as an important resistance zone for the Index. Any sustained move above 86,000 could potentially taking the price higher towards 86,500, followed by 87,000. On the downside, the support has shifted higher in the zone of 85,600-85,500.

Ruchit Jain, Vice President, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said  that the ongoing uptrend has been driven largely by heavyweight stocks, while small-cap counters have lagged. Strong momentum in large-caps could lift the Nifty towards the 26,400–26,500 zone in the near term, with the 20-day exponential moving average (20-DEMA) at 25,900 acting as immediate support.

On the technical front, the Nifty has formed a reversal pattern on daily charts accompanied by a long bullish candle. Traders are watching 26,000–26,100 on the Nifty and 85,000–85,300 on the Sensex as key support zones. As long as the indices hold above these ranges, the bullish trend is expected to remain intact. Resistance is seen at 26,275–26,400 for the Nifty and 85,900–86,200 for the Sensex. A sustained fall below 26,000 on the Nifty or 85,000 on the Sensex could weaken the trend, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said Wednesday’s bullish engulfing pattern has reduced the recent downward bias. “We begin the session with a positive view as long as the Nifty holds above 26,165, but we will watch for quick profit-taking if the index fails to stay above 26,098,” he said.

The index now has immediate support at 26,050–26,100, a zone that has consistently attracted buying interest. On the upside, resistance has shifted to 26,300–26,350, where selling pressure could emerge and cap near-term advances, said Amruta Shinde, Research Analyst at Choice Broking.

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