The rupee is in long-term consolidation, and a breach of 69.52 could take the currency towards Rs 73/USD mark, Arun Kumar, Market Strategist, Reliance Securities, said in an interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand.
Q) The Nifty 50 on weekly basis closed flat with a negative bias. What does the weekly chart pattern tell about the technical picture?
A) The Nifty formed an indecisive pattern on the weekly time frame. However, both nearest and medium-term oscillators are positive. Since few of these measures are stretched in varying degrees of the overbought zone, the index may extend its sideways / non-trending phase between 10830 - 11171.
A clear directional bias will emerge once the index strongly moves outside this zone.
Q) Rupee hit a fresh record low of Rs 69.13/USD on Friday. Where do you see the currency heading?
A) USDINR has been moving a non-trending band of 68.25 - 69.13 for almost a month. Given the weak setup on higher time frames, INR may extend its weak trend once it closes beyond 69.13.
Q) How is Bank Nifty looking on technical charts? Any other index which is showing strength?
A) Bank Nifty also formed an indecisive pattern similar to Nifty on the weekly time frame. Broadly, the index exhibits signs of trading within a band and effectively directionless on a near-term basis.
Since the near, as well as medium-term measures, are positive and mildly overbought, the index may face some headwinds around the zone of 27250 - 27650.
A clear and strong close above the mentioned zone could see the index resume its out-performance. Apart from banking, the NSE Financial Services and FMCG indices are strong. NSE Pharma Index might be a dark horse.
Q) Plenty of stocks hit fresh 52-week lows in July compared to stocks which hit 52-week highs. The absence of buying in broader markets is likely to cap upside for markets, and what should investors do with stocks hitting lows -- hold or exit?
A) The best is to hold on to quality stocks which have a strong balance sheet and are generating cash profit.
Q) Top 3-5 positional call which could give handsome returns to investors in next 1 month?
A) Positive on from medium to long-term perspective
1. HDFC STANDARD LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY
In the next 6 months to one year return expected to be in the range of 20 to 30 percent.
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