Closing Bell: Nifty below 18,800, Sensex down 284 pts; midcap index down 1%

Taking Stock: Nifty below 18,800, Sensex falls 284 points; all sectors in the red

Top losers on the Nifty included Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer Products, Tata Motors and Asian Paints, while gainers were Divis Laboratories, L&T, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel.... Read More

Markets witnessed a roller-coaster ride on the weekly expiry day and settled marginally in the red. After the flat start, Nifty tried crossing the record high again but profit taking in heavyweights across sectors gradually pushed the index lower. It attempted to recoup losses in the middle but in vain. Finally, it closed at 18771.25 levels; down by 0.45%. Most sectors traded in sync with the index and drifted lower wherein energy, realty and IT were among the top losers. The broader indices too inched lower and shed in the range of 0.7%-1.1%.

We’re seeing profit taking at higher levels due to feeble global cues but the tone is still positive. The real challenge is to handle positions amid choppiness. We thus suggest keeping a check on trades and advise preferring hedged bets until the market clears the air over the next directional move.

The Nifty witnessed a volatile day of trade today. It opened on a positive note however faced selling pressure at higher levels and closed in the red down ~ 85 points. On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has been facing stiff resistance at the zone of 18870 – 18900. Despite multiple attempts, it has been unable to surpass it.

The hourly momentum indicator has a negative crossover which is a sell signal and could be the reason for the weakness in the Nifty. On the downside the Nifty is trading around the key hourly moving averages 18808 – 18783 which can act as a support. The Bollinger bands are contracting indicating that there could be more consolidation before it resumes trending moves. Overall, we continue to maintain our positive outlook on the index for targets of 19000. In terms of levels, 18700 – 18660 shall act as a crucial support zone while 18880 – 18900 shall act as a crucial resistance zone.

As far as Bank Nifty is concerned, the 20-day moving average of 43976 acted as a stiff resistance and the index was unable to surpass it. The Bank Nifty is still stuck in a range and until the zone of 44000 – 43500 is not decisively breached on either side, the range-bound action is likely to continue.

Apart from weak global market cues, the US Federal Reserve's testimony that inflation would take longer to cool sent jitters amongst the investors as this would mean more rate hikes are in the offing. However, the highlight of the day was Sensex once again touching a new high before giving up gains due to profit-taking.

Technically, on intraday charts, the Nifty has formed a double top formation and also formed a bearish candle on daily charts which is largely negative. For day traders, 18850 would be the immediate resistance level. Below which, the market could retest the level of 18700-18650. On the flip side, a fresh uptrend rally is possible only after the dismissal of 18850. Post the breakout, the Nifty is likely to rally till 18900-18935.

The domestic market is currently witnessing increased volatility as it hovers around its historical peaks. This heightened volatility has also affected mid- and small-cap stocks, which have shown resilience. Moreover, the weak global indicators have had an impact on the domestic market, as they experienced declines following concerns of potential rate hikes, prompted by comments from the Fed chair regarding the fight against inflation.

Indian rupee ended 9 paise higher at 81.95 per dollar against previous close of 82.04.

Benchmark indices ended lower on June 22 with Nifty below 18,800.

At close, the Sensex was down 284.26 points or 0.45percentat 63,238.89, and the Nifty was down 85.50 points or 0.45 percent at 18,771.30. About 1,294 shares advanced, 2,139 shares declined, and 123 shares were unchanged.

Top losers on the Nifty included Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer Products, Tata Motors and Asian Paints, while gainers were Divis Laboratories, L&T, HDFC, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with PSU Bank and Power down 1 percent each, while oil & gas, metal, FMCG, pharma, and information technology down 0.5 percent each.

The BSE midcap index shed 1 percent and smallcap index fell 0.6 percent.

Indian Rupee appreciated today on the overnight decline in US Dollar on not-so-hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Dovish comments from FOMC officials Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee put further downside pressure on the Dollar. FII inflows also supported the local currency. However, weak domestic markets and overnight gains in crude oil prices capped sharp gains.

We expect Rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on risk-off sentiments in global markets. However, easing crude oil prices and foreign inflows may support Rupee at lower levels. Traders may remain cautious ahead of weekly unemployment claims, current accounts and existing home sales data from the US. We expect the USDINR spot to trade between 81.50 to 82.40 in the near term.

-Underperform rating, target at Rs 660 per share
-US approval for Spiriva Generic is a positive, but widely anticipated
-18 percent/75percentof incremental EPS for FY24/25 was linked to this Spiriva generic
-Spiriva generic is a meaningful contributor to Lupin’s medium-term profitability
-Spiriva generic does not allay concerns on weakness in core business
-Stock trades at expensive valuations of 40x/33x FY24/FY25 Ex Spiriva EPS estimates

Gold fell on Thursday and held close to a three-month low touched in the last session after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that more interest rate hikes were likely to tame inflation.

Spot gold fell 0.3 percentto $1,926.59 per ounce by 0918 GMT, having hit its lowest since March 17 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4percentto $1,936.60.