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Last Updated : Sep 24, 2018 09:55 AM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com

Experts say volatility may continue. Top 10 short-term picks by brokerages which could return 5-15%

For the coming week, 11210 followed by 11350 would be seen as immediate hurdles, suggest experts

Kshitij Anand @kshanand
 
 
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Indian market witnessed a roller coaster ride last week and this week also the market is likely to remain volatile due to F&O expiry on September 27, Thursday, as traders would roll their positions from September series to October series.

The index has fallen nearly 400 points for the week ended September 21 and now any rally towards 11,350 levels should be used as shorting opportunities, suggest experts.

Week ended September 21 has been clearly the worst for our markets in the last few months. The index has fallen on all the four days of the truncated week. However, after the recent fall, there is hope for some bounce back.

If we have to analyse the index on the weekly and monthly chart, we can see index precisely testing key Fibonacci ratios and thereby giving some ray of hope for the bulls.

The next week would be quite crucial for our market to set a near-term trend. For the coming week, 11,210 followed by 11,350 would be seen as immediate hurdles, suggest experts.

“If the index has to gain some kind of strength, it should first take out these barriers convincingly with an authority. On the other hand, if we fail to do so and again slide below 11,050-11,000, then it would certainly not augur well as we may see a sharp slide once again to test lower levels,” Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst, Technicals, and Derivatives at Angel Broking told Moneycontrol.

“As a trader, our advice would be to stay light on positions and one has to be agile while picking up stocks at least for the momentum perspective. Also, we need to highlight that we may see higher volatility going forward and hence, aggressive positions should be strictly avoided,” he said.

We have collated a list of 10 stock strategies for the coming week with a holding period of 1 month which could give 5-15% return:

Analyst: Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst, Technicals, and Derivatives at Angel Broking

BPCL: Buy| LTP: Rs 376.50| Target: Rs 394| Stop Loss: Rs 350.50| Return 5%

From the beginning of this calendar year, all OMC stocks have been struggling to a great extent. Now, after undergoing some stressful time with correction of nearly 25-30 percent from record highs, we can see some early signs of revival. At this juncture, we like BPCL from this pocket.

There are multiple technical observations are being witnessed due to the last couple of week’s price action. Firstly, a copybook ‘Bullish Island Reversal’ pattern on the daily chart, which is very seldom to see.

Due to this price development, the weekly chart now depicts a ‘Dragonfly Doji’ pattern precisely at the ‘200 SMA’ and the pattern has now been confirmed. Hence, one can look to go long around Rs 420 for a positional target of Rs 394 in coming weeks. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 350.50.

Vedanta: Buy| LTP: Rs 230.45| Target: Rs 265| Stop Loss: Rs 217| Return 15%

The ‘Metal’ has been an interesting play of late. We did see some kind of resilience from this space in last week’s sharp correction. They did not fall much and in fact, recovered quite sharply to show some encouraging signs.

From this basket, ‘Vedanta’ seems to be a better choice considering its close on Friday. The stock has been consolidating since the last couple of months and but soon we expect it surpass its hurdle of Rs 234.

Thus, it offers a better trade set up at current levels. One can look to go long around for a positional target of Rs.265 in coming weeks. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 217.

Brokerage Firm: SMC Global Securities

GAIL (India): Buy| LTP: Rs 390.15| Target: Rs 425| Stop Loss: Rs 370| Return 9%

The stock closed at Rs 390.15 on September 21, 2018. It made a 52-week low at Rs 290.33 on September 28, 2017 and a 52-week high of Rs 399.40 on August 16, 2018. The 200-days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 347.62.

The short-term, medium-term and long-term bias is looking positive for the stock as it is trading near an all-time high. It is likely to form the “Cup and Handle” pattern on weekly charts, which is considered to be bullish.

Last week, the stock gained over 5 percent with a rise in volume activity and also manages to close on verge of the breakout of the pattern.

On the indicators front, RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying for the stock so one can initiate long in the range of Rs 385-388 levels for the upside target of Rs 415-425 levels with a stop loss below Rs 370.

ONGC: Buy| LTP: Rs 180.40| Target: Rs 200| Stop Loss: Rs 165| Return 11%

The stock closed at Rs 180.40 on 21st September 2018. It made a 52-week low at Rs 151.80 on June 28, 2018 and a 52-week high of Rs. 212.85 on January 25, 2018.

The 200-days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 173.79. As we can see on charts that stock was trading sideways and formed a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature.

Apart from this, it has given the breakout of “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on daily charts and also manages to close above 200-WEMA, which also gives the positive outlook for the stock.

Despite the fall in broader indices, the stock ended over 4 percent gains accompanied by good volume so follow up buying can continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of Rs 177-178 levels for the upside target of Rs 195-200 levels with a stop loss below Rs 165.

Analyst: Sumeet Bagadia, Associate Director at Choice Broking

Oil India: LTP: Rs 218| Buy at Rs 218.65-216.50| Stop Loss: Rs 209| Target: Rs 235| Return 8%

On the daily chart, the stock has given a breakout of its Symmetrical Triangle formation with above-average volume which indicates a robust upside movement in the counter.

Moreover, the stock has managed to close above its 21 and 50-days moving average which shows a positive trend in the stock.

On the weekly chart as well, the stock has sustained above its 200-weeks moving average placed at Rs 214.50 level which suggests an upside movement.

A daily momentum indicator RSI reading is at 65.49 level with a positive crossover. The RSI has also given a breakout of its downward falling trend line which points out for a positive breath in the stock.

Bharti Infratel Ltd: LTP: Rs 279.90| Buy at Rs 281.20| Stop Loss: Rs 263.20| Target: Rs 320| Return 14%

On the daily chart, the stock has given a breakout of its rounding bottom which suggests positive momentum can be seen in the near future.

Moreover, on the daily chart, the stock is trading above its 20-days moving average which shows the dominance of the stock. The momentum indicator MACD, Signal line has given breakout above MACD which suggest a signal of optimism.

Analyst: Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in

Hero MotoCorp: Buy| LTP: Rs 3165| Target: Rs 3296| Stop Loss: Rs 3090| Return 4%

This counter appears to have registered a short-term bottom around Rs 3100 levels after retracing around 80 percent of its last leg of the rally from the lows of Rs 3033 – 3350 levels.

As this counter was indifferent to Friday’s fall and closed in positive terrain with marginal gains, sustaining above Rs 3,100 levels, it can easily target Rs 3296 levels. A stop-loss suggested for the trade is Rs 3090.

HPCL: Buy| LTP: 257| Target: Rs 280| Stop Loss: Rs 240| Return 9%

After hitting a bottom of Rs 233 this counter appears to be consolidating in a narrow range of Rs 260-247 for the last couple of trading sessions.

Sustaining above Rs 247 levels it can make an attempt to register a decent pullback towards Rs 283 kind of levels. Hence, traders can buy into this counter for an initial target of Rs 280 with a stop of Rs 240.

Brokerage Firm: ICICIdirect Research

JK Paper: Buy| LTP: Rs 166| Target: Rs 193| Stop Loss: Rs 161| Return 16%

The share price of JK Paper, after a sharp up move in July-August 2018 from Rs 98 to Rs 194 is witnessing consolidation in the last five weeks. Consolidation in the stock appears to have approached maturity and is likely to resume its fresh up move.

During the entire consolidation, the stock is forming a base at the previous breakout area of early August 2018 and 38.2 percent retracement of the previous up move (Rs 98 to Rs 194) placed at Rs 158.

Time-wise, the stock has already taken five weeks to retrace just 38.2 percent of the previous up move Rs 98 to Rs 194. The slower pace of retracement of the rally is a cornerstone of a bullish price structure and indicates the corrective nature of price decline

Among oscillators, the weekly 14 periods RSI in an uptrend and is seen taking support at its nine period’s average, thus supporting the positive bias in the stock.

We expect the stock to move higher and test levels of Rs 194 in the coming weeks as it is the all-time high and upper band of the last five week’s consolidation.

Jindal Steel & Power: Buy| LTP: Rs 234| Target: Rs 268| Stop Loss: Rs 221| Return 14%

The share price of Jindal Steel & Power registered a resolute breakout above the downward sloping trend line joining the high of January 2018 (Rs 294) and May 2018 (Rs 265). This signals positive bias and resumption of up move, thus offering a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock.

During the previous month, the stock rebounded taking support at the 200-week EMA and 80 percent retracement of the previous major up move (Rs 158-294) signalling a positive price structure.

Immediate support for the stock is around Rs 221 levels as it is the recent breakout area and the bullish gap area of September 14, 2018.

Among oscillators, the weekly MACD has generated a buy signal as it moved above its nine period’s average, thus supporting the positive bias in the stock.

We expect the stock to continue its positive momentum and test levels of Rs 270 as it is the 80 percent retracement of the entire decline (Rs 294 to Rs 177) at Rs 270.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
First Published on Sep 24, 2018 09:55 am
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