"I’m not overly worried about global speed bumps derailing us completely. Our domestic economy is in pretty good shape and corporate earnings have been gradually improving," Puneet Sharma, CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, AIF said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
According to him, eventually the indices will find their momentum and push through to new peaks once the dust settles. "It may just not be a straight line to get there," he said.
On further rate cut possibility, Puneet Sharma is of the view that as long as the India-US trade deal remains in limbo and the RBI has other levers to pull, significant rate cuts can wait.
Do you expect the markets to face more challenges—primarily global—before hitting record highs?
I do think we might hit a few global speed bumps before markets charge to new all-time highs. It’s just the nature of the beast these days, there’s a lot happening worldwide that could stir up volatility. You’ve got things like high interest rates in the US and some uncertainty around major economies (China’s slowdown comes to mind) that could easily put investors on edge. A hiccup in any of these areas might unsettle sentiment briefly and make the climb to record highs a bit bumpy.
That said, I’m not overly worried about these challenges derailing us completely. Our domestic economy is in pretty good shape and corporate earnings have been gradually improving. So even if global events throw us a curveball in the short run, the market has some solid footing at home. We might have to be patient through a bout of turbulence, but eventually I feel the indices will find their momentum and push through to new peaks once the dust settles. It may just not be a straight line to get there.
Is the US-China tariff war a greater risk to global markets than other current factors?
The US-China tariff war is definitely a significant risk – no question about it. When the world’s two biggest economies are at odds, markets are right to be jittery. Every time there’s a flare-up or harsh rhetoric on tariffs, you can almost feel investors around the globe hold their breath. It’s a big overhang and has been for a while. But is it the greatest risk out there right now? I’m not so sure.
There are plenty of other factors keeping investors up at night. For instance, global interest rates are still high and there’s lingering worry about major economies sliding into a recession. Energy prices can surprise you, and geopolitical tensions in other regions (outside the US-China sphere) can spring up anytime.
In a way, markets have somewhat adjusted to the ongoing trade war drama, it’s been in the background for years, and unless it suddenly escalates, it’s kind of “baked in” to an extent. On the other hand, something like an unexpected central bank move or a financial sector hiccup could blindside the market more. So yes, the tariff war is a big risk, but it’s one among a handful of big risks. I wouldn’t rank it far above things like inflation or global growth concerns; they all matter and they all intertwine. It’s a cocktail of risks rather than a single dominant theme.
Do you believe interest rate cuts are unlikely until the US trade deal is resolved and the RBI continues its interventions in the money markets?
In my view, the Reserve Bank of India isn’t likely to rush into rate cuts until there’s more clarity on the global trade front. If a major trade deal (say involving the US, and by extension impacting India or global trade flows) is still up in the air, that uncertainty makes the RBI cautious. They’ve been pretty active in the money markets with other tools – things like managing liquidity and smoothing out currency volatility. Essentially, the RBI has been using these interventions as a stopgap to keep the system stable without touching the policy rates. It’s like they’re saying, “We have other ways to support the market; we don’t need to cut rates just yet.”
Do you see significant investment opportunities in data centres over the next year?
Absolutely. The data centre space is buzzing, and it looks like it’ll offer some solid opportunities over the next year. We’re living in a time when everything is moving online or to the cloud – from streaming our movies to businesses digitizing operations – and all that information needs to be stored and processed somewhere.
India is quickly becoming a hub for data centres, with big players (both domestic and international) investing in massive server farms across the country. So the demand drivers are certainly there, and I can see why investors are excited about companies linked to this theme. It’s not just the tech companies; even real estate firms and utilities that cater to data centres stand to benefit from this trend.
While I’m optimistic about the space as a whole, I’m also selective. The story makes sense – rising digital usage means more data centres – but execution is key. My approach would be to invest in companies that have a clear edge, maybe a technological advantage or strong demand pipeline, rather than just buying anything with “data centre” in its pitch.
Do you expect credit growth to pick up meaningfully in the near term?
I’m not holding my breath for an immediate surge in credit growth, at least not in the very near term. We’ve seen bank credit growing at a decent clip – high single digits to low double digits percentage-wise – which is healthy but not extraordinary. Given where interest rates have been (pretty elevated until recently), both businesses and consumers have been a bit cautious about taking on new loans.
Companies are still borrowing, sure, but many of them are also exploring raising funds via bonds or equity, especially larger ones, instead of relying solely on bank credit. And on the retail side, while there’s always demand for home loans, car loans, etc., the higher EMIs (thanks to those past rate hikes) might be making people think twice about loading up on debt quickly.
If we’re talking a slightly longer horizon, say a few quarters down the line — I do see the potential for credit growth to gather more pace.
But in the here and now, I’d say credit growth will remain moderate. It’ll likely track overall economic growth: steady and stable, but probably not a big spike unless something changes dramatically (like a sharp fall in interest rates or a big government push on lending).
Are you bullish on new-age companies that have transitioned from a ‘cash burn’ phase to profitability?
I’m really pleased to see many of our new-age companies finally turning the corner from burning cash to actually making some money. It’s a major milestone for any startup-turned-listed-company to prove that their business model can generate profits, not just user growth.
However, I wouldn’t lump all these companies together blindly. I’m selectively bullish. I’ll back the ones that not only have shown profits but have done so while still growing and innovating. Those companies, I believe, have a solid foundation to build on. But for any that are just barely in the black and could slip back if they’re not careful, I’d say the jury’s still out.
Do you believe gold will continue to hold its appeal in the coming years?
Honestly, I don’t think gold will have the same kind of appeal going forward as it once did. The world is moving fast, and investors today have access to a wide range of instruments that can deliver better risk-adjusted returns. Gold still plays a psychological role, it feels safe when markets are shaky but beyond that, it hasn’t really delivered meaningful wealth creation. Over the long term, equities and even high-quality debt have far outperformed it.
A lot of the recent interest in gold came from uncertainty geopolitical risks, sticky inflation, and central bank buying. But if those risks stabilize and economies normalize, gold tends to lose its shine quickly. It doesn’t generate cash flow, it doesn’t compound, and it relies purely on sentiment. For investors looking to grow capital in a structured way, gold doesn’t fit the bill anymore. I’d rather hold assets that can actually produce earnings or interest income.
That doesn’t mean gold disappears, it’ll still have cultural significance in countries like India and may see occasional rallies during crises. But from an investment standpoint, I see it more as an emotional comfort than a productive asset. For long-term investors who understand compounding and diversification, there are simply more efficient ways to build wealth than holding gold.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
Find the best of Al News in one place, specially curated for you every weekend.
Stay on top of the latest tech trends and biggest startup news.
