Antique initiates coverage on Adani Power with 'buy' rating, sees up to 30% upside

Antique initiates coverage on Adani Power with 'buy' rating, sees up to 30% upside

Domestic brokerage Antique has initiated coverage on Adani Power with "buy" rating and gave a target price of Rs 187, which represents up to 30% upside for the stock.

Antique sees multi‑year earnings upcycle for the company, driven by 2.3x capacity expansion to 41.9 GW by FY33E, led by 23.72 GW under construction across brownfield and greenfield projects.

Antique said Adani Power has secured 70% share (12.4 GW of 17.7 GW) in ongoing state thermal power purchase agreement (PPA) awards, 67% of 41.9 GW portfolio already tied under long-term PPAs.

At 1:15 pm on December 16, Adani Power shares were trading 0.2% lower at Rs 144 apiece.

The brokerage expects FY25–32E revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGRs at 16%/19%/17%; net debt/EBITDA to fall to sub‑1x by FY32E despite Rs 2 lakh crore capex funded 60% via internal accruals.

The stock rose 36% in 2025 so far.

"India's structural power upcycle—supported by 6% demand CAGR over FY22-32E and rising peak needs from EVs, data centers, AI, and manufacturing—creates a strong tailwind for coal power. APL has secured a dominant 70% share of the ongoing state-led thermal PPA

awards (12.4 GW of 17.7 GW), highlighting its cost and execution advantage. Earnings visibility is strong, with 90% of operational capacity and 67% of the 41.9 GW portfolio tied under long-term PPAs," said Antique in its research note.

"The stock trades at 15x EV/EBITDA FY26E, which is an attractive valuation given its growth visibility. We initiate coverage on APL with BUY rating and value the stock at 15x FY28F EBITDA of Rs 29,300 crore to arrive at a TP of Rs 187. Our DCF (CoE 13.6%, terminal growth 5%) backs it with a fair value of Rs 185/share," added Antique.