India Q3 GDP Data Highlights: Maha Kumbh to help achieve 6.5% GDP for FY25, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

On being asked about the issue of rising temperatures, CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said the Indian government is taking a number of measures to adapt to the challenges being posed by climate change. This comes as India saw an unusually warm February.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said given the long-term growth prospects of India in comparison to others, one should not over-interpret the current market volatility. This comes amid a market downturn with Sensex crashing over 1,400 points today.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said with Maha Kumbh saw a huge sums of money being spent on food, accommodation, travel and other sectors. This is expected to have a sizeable impact on consumption expenditure in Q4, he added.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said the tax cuts announced in the Union Budget 2025 will help to improve the medium term economic prospects.

We should not be held hostage by global uncertainties, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran. Indian economic momentum will sustain irrespective of them, he further said, adding that crop production is set to remain robust.

Tax cuts as announced in the Budget, and higher employment growth will result in higher household savings, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran. He however added that savings have been lower than historical trends

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said private investment in real terms in very low. He added that while it is rebounding, there is room to do more given the high demand.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said India sees continued active interest from investors in India. “Legacy investors have been using the extremely buoyant Indian stock market until recently to generate profits on old investments,” he said. This comes amid a market downturn.

Inflation is trending down, which were distorted by few items like food and gold, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said the manufacturing PMI is continuing to expand. He added that urban as well as rural demand see good growth rate.

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said good exports performance, public sector capex and heightened spending during the Maha Kumbh will help achieve the estimated 6.5% GDP for FY25.

Speaking at a briefing after the release of GDP numbers , CEA V Anantha Nageswaran, said India’s growth rate stands out among advanced and developing economies. He added that the GDP data “augurs well for the growth trajectory of India for FY26 and beyond”.

India’s real GDP or GDP at constant prices is estimated to touch Rs 187.95 lakh crore in the financial year 2024-2025, according to data released by the government. This is higher than the first revised GDP estimate of Rs 176.51 lakh crore for the financial year 2023-2024.

Real GDP in Q3 FY25 is expected to rise 6.2% year-on-year to Rs 47.17 lakh crore.

India’s fiscal deficit widened to Rs 11.7 lakh crore, or 74.5 percent of the full-year target, in the first 10 months of the year, despite capex spending lagging behind, data released by the government on February 28 shows.

The government expects the construction sector to see a growth of 8.6 percent in FY25, followed by 'Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services' sector (7.2%) and 'Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting' sector (6.4%).

FY24 forecast was revised upward to 9.2 percent from 8.2 percent in the provisional estimate released in May 2024. The FY23 growth now stands at 7.6 percent from an earlier estimate of 7 percent.

The Indian economy recovered in the December quarter to grow at 6.2 percent after sinking to a seven-quarter low of 5.6 percent in the July-September period, data released on February 28 shows.

The third quarter number was a tad below the MC poll median of 6.3 percent but helped retain the full-year forecast of 6.5 percent, according to second advance estimates.

The stock markets closed after recording significant losses. The benchmark index Sensex crashed over 1,400. Nifty meanwhile tumbled around 2 percent. All sectoral indices closed in the red, with Nifty IT and Auto recording the strongest losses.

• India’s economy likely rebounded last quarter, although growth prospects remain uncertain in coming months as US President Donald Trump threatens to upend global trade with tariffs.
• Data due Friday will likely show gross domestic product grew 6.2% in the three months to December, according to a median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. While that’s higher than a seven-quarter low of 5.4% in the July-September period, it falls short of the central bank’s projection of 6.8%.
• The Indian government has already lowered its GDP growth estimate for the current fiscal year through March to 6.4% — the weakest pace since the pandemic — with economists expecting another downward revision on Friday. Growth is projected by the government to be below 7% in the coming fiscal year as well, compared with 8% expansion in the previous year. - Bloomberg

• 7.8% growth rate not necessary every year for Viksit Bharat, it can be higher in conducive years, and lower in others
• Need not be worried about Year to year volatility
• If current year not great at growth, it is fine.
• Need not rely on global economy for growth, but on domestic factors - Kouame, World Bank

• Achieving high income growth by 2047 would require growth at 7.8% average
• Growth needs to be consistently high
• India has strong foundations of macroeconomic stability, demographic dividend, strong reform momentum, large market, strategic and political opportunities
• All engines of growth will need to work faster
• One of the key constraints to private investment has eased
• Investment to GDP has started to decline, which is a worry, though financial sector conditions are conducive
• Employment remains concentrated in agriculture and other low productivity sectors
• Women's participation in paid Employment is low. Suggest targeted intervention.
• Pvt investment has not yet responded despite conducive environment. There is scope for pvt investment to take a bigger share.
• India has specific features, need to trade off global headwinds with unique opportunities from China plus 1.
• Openness in general important in trade irrespective of bilateral or multilateral agreements. -  World Bank Lead Economist Aurelien Kruse

Andhra Pradesh Finance Minister Payyavula Keshav presented the state’s Budget for 2025-26 in the assembly, marking the first full budget under the coalition government. The budget outlines a revenue expenditure of Rs 2,51,162 crore, capital expenditure of Rs 40,635 crore, a revenue deficit of Rs 33,185 crore, and a fiscal deficit of Rs 79,926 crore.

Madhabi Puri Buch, who is moving on after a three-year tenure, assumed the role of SEBI Chairperson on March 2, 2022. She was a whole-time member at the market regulator before that for five years from April 2017 to March 2022. Buch was not only the first woman to head the market regulator but also the first person from the private sector to serve as the chairperson of the entity. However, her tenure as SEBI chief was marked by allegations of irregularities—initially from short-seller Hindenburg and later the Congress party. Moreover, a section of SEBI employees has accused her of creating a ‘toxic work environment’, though that matter has now been resolved. Buch has denied the allegations.

• India is on track to become a high-income nation with a projected GDP of $23–$35 trillion, fueled by consistent annual growth of 8%–10%. This transformation will be driven by the country’s demographic advantage, technological advancements, and sectoral shifts, according to the India@2047: Transforming India into a Tech-Driven Economy report by Bain & Company and Nasscom.
• By 2047, the services sector is expected to contribute 60% to India's GDP, while manufacturing will make up 32%, both serving as key drivers of economic growth.

According to a Goldman Sachs report, Trump's tariffs could affect India’s GDP by 0.1% to 0.6%. The analysis, which examines the impact of US tariffs under both country-level and product-level reciprocity, highlights that India’s domestic activity linked to U.S. final demand is approximately twice as high (4.0% of GDP) when factoring in indirect exports through other countries. This could potentially lead to a GDP growth impact of 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points.

According to a Deloitte report, Artificial Intelligence (AI) in healthcare is expected to add USD 25-30 billion to India’s GDP by 2025, improving accessibility, diagnostics, and treatment outcomes.

The IMF projects real GDP growth of 6.5% for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, driven by strong private consumption, bolstered by continued macroeconomic and financial stability.

India’s GDP growth stood at 6.7% in the first quarter of FY2024-25 but saw a sharp decline to 5.4% in the second quarter. This downturn has fueled speculation about whether the slowdown is cyclical or systemic, heightening anticipation for the third-quarter GDP figures, which could provide a clearer economic outlook. In the previous fiscal year (FY2023-24), the provisional annual GDP growth rate was recorded at 8.2%. However, NSO’s January estimates project a 6.4% growth rate for FY2024-25, marking a four-year low. With the second quarter dampening sentiment, a weaker-than-expected third-quarter GDP could further challenge the possibility of achieving the 6.4% annual growth target.

The National Statistics Office (NSO) is set to release the quarterly GDP estimates and annual GDP figures for FY2024-25 today at 4 PM. Meanwhile, credit rating agency ICRA has estimated India’s Q3 GDP growth at 6.4%, citing higher government spending as a key driver despite fluctuating consumption trends. Economists noted a year-end boost in demand across consumer-driven sectors, spurred by the festive season.

Good morning and welcome to Moneycontrol. Today as part of our live coverage, we will be tracking the latest on Sebi appointment, legacy of Madhbi Puri Buch. Later in the day, we will also look at the Q3 GDP numbers that will be released today. Stay with us for latest updates