Antony Blinken visit: How to contain fallout of US withdrawal from Afghanistan tops agenda

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (File Image : AP)

The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the fast escalating violence in the country is set to prominently figure in bilateral talks after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken touches down in New Delhi on July 27, sources close to the talks said.

On his first official trip to India, Blinken is expected to sit down with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar Jaishankar on July 28. He is also expected to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India has taken a keen interest in the Afghan situation as the Taliban gets ever closer to the capital city of Kabul. New Delhi remains engaged with both the Afghan government and the Taliban, according to sources. The violence has escalated after large-scale fighting erupted between Afghan government forces and the rebel Taliban more than three weeks ago.

While both sides have publicly said they don't want to get bogged down into another civil war, there has been no conciliation so far. Further, reports of assassinations of female journalists, government bureaucrats, rights activists and religious minorities have increased from Taliban-held territory.

"New Delhi recognizes very well what the situation may devolve into if decisive action is not taken quickly. However, apart from systematic drone strikes, the US side seems shy to do anything else. Given the finality of the US army's pullout from Afghanistan, the US government is unwilling to get involved again," a senior policy advisor person close to the deliberations said. He added that the latest meeting will allow India to gauge what Washington DC plans next.

"The meeting is also an opportunity for us to understand whether the US would again invest funds into Pakistan, whose army has grown increasingly belligerent across the Afghan border. If that is the case, India would need to stop that," another person in the know said.

The Ministry of External Affairs has said the official agenda of the meet is broad and open. "Secretary Blinken's visit is an opportunity to continue the high-level bilateral dialogue and bolster the India-US global strategic partnership. Both sides will review the robust and multifaceted India-US bilateral relations, and potential for consolidating them further," it has said.

Blinken is also set to meet National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, who recently attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's meet on Afghanistan. The bloc includes China, Pakistan and Russia, among other central Asian states.

Other issues

Apart from Afghanistan and related security issues, the discussions will focus on regional and global issues of mutual interest, including recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indo-Pacific region,  and cooperation in the United Nations.

On the health front, India may get some clarity from the US when it can expect shipments of vaccines from the US. In early June, the Joe Biden administration had announced its intention to donate and distribute up to 80 million vaccine doses globally. Later in June, they released the distribution list for the countries which saw 16 million vaccines being allocated to Asia.

This includes India and other countries in the subcontinent such as Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and others, along with the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan etc. The donations will be routed through the global COVAX vaccine initiative.

However, a date has not yet been set for when the shipments may reach. Also, given the scale of vaccines required in India, the government says the donations will barely scratch the surface. The 80 million doses the US is donating comprise vaccines manufactured by AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson and Johnson.
The ones to be sent to India are expected to be Moderna, which have also received approval for usage in the country