Hindalco Industries Ltd is expected to report a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, with improved operating profit margins and bottom line.
Analysts attribute the revenue drop to lower realisation and volume growth, while reduced input costs are expected to boost operating profit and net profit.
A Moneycontrol poll of nine brokerages predicts a 2.5 percent YoY revenue decline to Rs 54,442.62 crore. However, EBITDA is expected to surge 21.3 percent to Rs 6,578.48 crore, and net profit may rise 18.3 percent to Rs 2,852.24 crore.
The company is scheduled to announce its results on May 24.
Hindalco's overseas subsidiary Novelis reported a 6 percent YoY increase in net profit to $166 million for the March quarter on May 6, despite a rise in tax provisions. Operating profit jumped 28 percent to $514 million.
Shipment volumes rose 1.6 percent YoY to 951,000 tonnes, but revenue declined 7 percent to $4.08 billion due to lower aluminium prices. US sales surged 60 percent and South American sales grew 26 percent.
Novelis achieved a record EBITDA per tonne of $540, surpassing the guidance of $525. The company said it was committed to the $525 EBITDA per tonne guidance.
Axis Securities predicts EBITDA margins for Hindalco will improve YoY and QoQ due to lower coal costs in India and higher operating leverage at Novelis.
Consolidated revenue is expected to rise QoQ, driven by increased Novelis shipments and slightly higher LME aluminium prices. Antique Stock Broking expects standalone revenue to decline 3 percent YoY, with lower aluminium prices, partially offset by higher copper prices.
Brokerage Nuvama forecasts Hindalco's aluminium EBITDA to increase by 1.8 percent QoQ, driven by higher aluminium prices despite stable volumes. It anticipates the impact of reduced coal prices in Q4 to reflect in Q1 of FY25 due to a lag effect.
It estimates project aluminium EBITDA at $885 per tonne (up 1.8 percent QoQ) and copper EBITDA at $660 per tonne (down 0.3 percent QoQ).
Analysts highlight the importance of commissioning timelines for various capex projects. They are awaiting management guidance on domestic aluminium demand and hedging positions.
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