Govt convenes all-party meeting on Jan 30 ahead of interim budget session

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“My expectation from the budget is that the government takes steps for the revival of gems and jewellery industry. I also expect the custom duty to be cut by at least 3 percent,” said Anoop Saraf, Director of Gorakhpur based AISSHPRA Gems and Jewels.

"While the 2024-25 budget is an 'interim' one ahead of the general elections due in April-May, we find that the fiscal targets in the interim and final budgets in the past two election years were largely similar. Hence, the government's fiscal intent is likely to remain largely unchanged in the final budget," noted Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi.

"A target of 5.2 per cent of the GDP will give a real chance to achieve 4.5 per cent in 2025-26, while 5.4 per cent or 5.3 per cent will almost surely postpone the target by at least one year to 2026-27," Nikhil Gupta and Tanisha Ladha, economists with Motilal Oswal Financial Services, wrote.

At 5.3 per cent, the expected fiscal deficit target for the next financial year would be 60 basis points lower than the objective for 2023-24, which is widely believed to be met, despite higher-than-expected expenditure and lower nominal GDP growth.

"Concerns surrounding fiscal slippage in an election year are understandable. However, we expect the Centre to meet their fiscal deficit target of 5.9 percent of GDP in 2023-24. For 2024-25, we see Centre's fiscal deficit to consolidate further to 5.3 percent of GDP, despite poll pressure," noted Aastha Gudwani, India economist at Bank of America Securities.

Writing in the report, the finance ministry's officials said there is "considerable scope for the growth rate to rise well above 7 percent by 2030" on account of the pace with which physical infrastructure is being built, strengthening of balance sheets, improvement in institutional efficiency due to rapidly expanding digital infrastructure, and technological progress picking up pace with increasing overseas collaboration.

Highlighting the economy's 7 percent-plus growth rate between 2014 and 2019 despite an "insipid" global economic backdrop, the finance ministry said it is "eminently possible for the Indian economy to grow in the coming years at a rate above 7 percent" given the strength of the financial sector and "other recent and future structural reforms".

"The UK has been challenging as the spreads are low, which is what we’ve experienced over the last 12 months. That’s why we are restructuring the UK operations, which will take place over the next 9 months or so. Only then will you see an improvement in operational performance in the UK. But you could see an improvement in financial performance, in the spreads, because the spreads in Q3 were the lowest in a very long time in Europe. In the last few weeks, we've started seeing the spreads and the prices in Europe go up because of the geopolitical situation around the Red Sea and the Suez Canal," said Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer TV Narendran.

"While public sector banks have done a wonderful job in furthering financial inclusion efforts and have done a lot of outreach for popularisation of financial inclusion schemes, the participation of mainstream private sector banks, with the exception of IDFC First Bank, is lacking and there is a lot to catch up by private sector banks with their public sector counterparts in this aspect," Joshi said.

Susheema Vidyaratnaraj, a construction sector entrepreneur, said, "What we expect in the budget is a more conducive environment for the woman entrepreneurs in the country. Some measures are being taken for women entrepreneurs but they are somehow lost in the bureaucracy while being delivered to the people. Simpler steps to reach out to the women who really need this kind of encouragement to become entrepreneurs, is what is expected. Especially in the construction industry, we have different zonal provisions for each of the states..."

Speaking at the 20th Global Inclusive Finance Summit, Financial Services Secretary Vivek Joshi asked banks and financial institutions to work on three areas — getting KYC done for inoperative accounts, nomination for bank accounts and strengthening cyber security.
"We are not far from a situation where all the adults in the country will be covered with at least one basic bank account," Joshi added.

-Further, Santosh Iyer, Managing Director and CEO of Mercedes-Benz India, feels the luxury car industry makes a significant contribution to the GDP and expects a rationalised duty structure.

-The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) believes that though sector-specific announcements are unlikely to be made, the association hopes that there will be no “drastic change” in the existing policies, which can disrupt the ecosystem.

-Hari Kiran, Co-Founder and COO, eBikeGo, a manufacturer of e-bikes, believes that a uniform 5 percent GST on all EV sparеs, which is alignеd with thе 5 percent GST on vеhiclеs, will rеsonatе with thе industry as it aims for a morе еquitablе tax structurе.

Shashank Srivastava, Senior Executive Director, Maruti Suzuki said that as the Interim Budget draws close, automobile industry stakeholders have varied expectations from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The industry believes that focus on last-mile connectivity, infrastructure and policy consistency would propel sectoral expansion.

Industry players, especially those betting big on battery-run vehicles, also expect sustained support for greener technologies, especially electric vehicles. The automotive industry is seeking an update on potential FAME 3 schemes (incentivising EV production), reduction in GST on lithium-ion batteries, production-linked incentives, and lowering the GST on entry-level internal combustion engine two-wheelers, which currently stands at 18 percent.

- Schools have a long list of expectations from the interim budget, ranging from the establishment of a subject matter expert (SME) committee for teachers to specific resource allocation for cultural change in institutions.

- The February 1 budget is an interim one, before the general elections are held by May. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated that there will be “no spectacular announcements” in the interim budget, but some tweaks cannot be ruled out.

- The allocation for the Department of School Education and Literacy was increased to Rs 68,804 crore in FY24 from Rs 59,052 crore (revised) in FY23. However, school administrators said the Union government must focus on quality control in light of sweeping changes proposed in the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020.

- While the growth story around defence continues to be strong, analysts maintain that there is unlikely to be any significant change in allocation in the upcoming budget. However, they believe that any increase in allocation will be a positive surprise on this front and that markets will cheer.

- In the FY23–24 budget, the defence segment received an allocation of Rs 5.94 lakh crore, a 13 percent increase over the previous year’s Rs 5.25 lakh crore. Of this, the capital outlay for “modernisation and infrastructure development” was increased to Rs 1.62 lakh crore, 6 percent higher than the FY2023 budget’s Rs 1.52 lakh crore and a 57 percent increase from FY2020.

Will the interim budget – scheduled on February 1 – increase the limits for Section 80C deductions? Tax experts said it’s highly unlikely because this section can be availed only in the old tax regime. The new income tax regime does not allow Section 80C tax deductions.

Sudhakar Sethuraman, Partner, Deloitte India said, "Individual tax payments look forward to better tax savings in terms of lower tax rates and higher income slabs. In the past, the simplified (new) tax regime has seen lower rates and wider income slabs than the regular (old) tax regime. However, one has to bear in mind that budget to be presented on February 1 is an Interim Budget. If the Finance Minister’s speech at the CII Global Economic Policy Forum 2023 Summit is any indication, the expectations on changes to tax rates would need to be tempered."

- A sharp fall in nominal GDP growth in 2023-24 could make it difficult for the Indian government to meet its fiscal deficit target of 5.9 percent of GDP.
- According to the statistics ministry's first advance estimate of GDP, released on January 5, India's nominal GDP growth – or GDP growth without adjusting for inflation – is set to plunge to 8.9 percent in 2023-24 – the lowest since the pandemic-hit year of 2020-21, and nearly half the 16.1 percent growth recorded in 2022-23.
- According to the International Monetary Fund's recent Article IV staff report, the Indian government remains committed to reducing its fiscal deficit to 4.5 percent of GDP by 2025-26.

- The Union Budget for the financial year 2024-25 may bring some relief on the minimum threshold, input tax credit and revision in GST rates on insurance products to make it easier to do business.

- However, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may avoid any major tinkering in the GST rates as she is going to present an interim budget in an election year.

- The small and medium business owners expect some relief in the minimum threshold for Goods and Services Tax (GST) registration in this year’s Budget, which could prove to be a booster for small-scale suppliers.

- Power and green energy industry is hopeful that the government will ensure policy consistency, focus on green hydrogen, lower goods and services tax (GST) rates, and easy access to subsidies and climate finance.
- Gyanesh Chaudhary, Chairman and Managing Director, Vikram Solar Ltd, said lower interest rates for the renewables sector, coupled with innovative financing models, will strengthen the capability of developers and equipment suppliers to compete in line with global standards.
- According to Pratik Agarwal, MD, Sterlite Power, the health of the power sector ultimately rests not on how much the network generates or transmits, but on the health of the country’s distribution companies (discoms).

- Anuj Puri, chairman of property consultancy ANAROCK Group, said that it is necessary that Budget 2024-25 should propose to increase the rebate on home loan interest under Section 24 of the Income-tax Act from Rs 2 lakh to at least Rs 5 lakh. Doing so could stimulate a more robust housing market, particularly in the budget homes segment, which has seen a decline in demand since the pandemic.c

- Rathi added, "Because of high inflation, the affordable segment of consumers were at a greater disadvantage compared to higher segments. Such interventions are necessary to uplift the lower income segment of the homebuyers."

One of the regulatory interventions that boosted the real estate sector in India and brought in transparency thus boosting homebuyers' sentiments is the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act (RERA).

G Hari Babu, the national president of the National Real Estate Development Council, told Moneycontrol that providing MSME or micro, small and medium enterprises status to local developers will not only increase accountability and transparency but also help companies access credit at affordable rates.

Senior living segment hopes to gain from the upcoming budget

In India, senior care services fall under the 18 percent slab of GST.

Ironically, while services provided by residents’ welfare associations that by and large cater to earning individuals are exempt (as per the central government) up to Rs 7,500 per month per unit, no such concessions are provided to seniors who are dependent on pension or interest income.

Manas Mehrotra, the founder of flexible office space provider 315Work Avenue, said that among some policy measures sought for in the upcoming budget is having a lower goods and services tax (GST) for small-scale coworking clients. "This will significantly help the coworking industry boost their footprint by attracting small startups to be part of the industry as well as increase the revenue collection to the government," he pointed out.

“We would like to appeal to the government to increase the education sector’s budget and reduce the GST slab from 18 percent to 5 percent on educational products and services. Our aim is to establish a strong foundation for the country’s children, particularly those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds,” said Prateek Maheshwari, Co-Chair of India Edtech Consortium (IEC) and Co-Founder of Physics Wallah (PW).

- The burgeoning edtech industry in India is on tenterhooks, anticipating fiscal policies that could shape the future of digital education.

- With the ongoing digital revolution and the Covid-19 pandemic accelerating the adoption of online learning, industry stakeholders are hopeful for strategic initiatives to propel growth and innovation as the edtech industry and start-ups as a whole face the brunt of economic slowdown and funding crunch.

- The industry is optimistic about potential tax incentives and benefits that may be announced in the interim budget. They say reduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates on digital educational content and services could make online learning more affordable, benefiting both students and edtech companies.

- Asset management companies (AMCs) in India want the government to roll back the debt taxation changes in the Interim Budget to be presented on February 1, 2024.

- In a big blow to mutual fund investors, the government in Finance Act 2023 had decided that capital gains from debt funds and certain other categories of non-equity mutual funds would be taxed at a higher rate.

- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had suggested that the interim Budget will not feature "spectacular announcements," but the possibility of some adjustments should not be completely dismissed, some experts say.

The experts addressed a panel discussion on 'We the women - India's next growth engine' at Moneycontrol Policy Next - India's $10 trillion Run.

“The narrative has shifted from women-empowerment to women-led development. Social and economic conditions were not conducive for women to enter the legal space. However, the landscape is now changing. 50 per cent of law students are currently women,” Bansuri Swaraj, Supreme Court lawyer and BJP. While She Capital Founder Anisha Singh said, “For the longest time, I heard behind closed doors, 'Why do you want to invest in women? They have catfights.' Women are powered, empowerment should be taken out of the dictionary."

- Following the implementation of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act of 2003, India has been trying to cap its fiscal deficit at 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The fiscal deficit was sustainably brought down from 5.8 percent in FY12 to 3.4 percent in FY19.

- However, the COVID-19 pandemic-driven economic crisis demanded fiscal support. Therefore, the deficit targets were raised by temporarily aborting the FRBM. The fiscal deficit for FY21 stood at a whopping 9.5 percent and that for FY22 at 6.7 percent, which was further lowered to 6.4 percent in FY23. India has committed to a slow taming of the fiscal deficit.

- The Indian healthcare sector is anticipating a renewed emphasis on regional healthcare and new initiatives to solidify its global standing as the pharmacy hub in the upcoming Budget 2024.

- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to unveil the Interim Budget 2024 on February 1. The general elections are set to take place in April-May 2024. Any significant announcements may be deferred until the full budget for FY25 is presented after the formation of a new government.

- The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance, an association of major Indian pharma manufacturers, has proposed that the 2024 Budget should accelerate the pace of life-sciences innovation & R&D. They noted that the Indian pharma sector aims to achieve market size of $120–130 billion by 2030 and $400-450 billion by 2047. The domestic pharma market is around $50 billion in size currently.

Sudhakar Sethuraman, Partner, Deloitte India said that at present, tax payments can be made by net banking, debit cards, NEFT/ RTGS, etc. Taxpayers such as non-residents who would need to pay tax, require a bank account in India. To facilitate tax payment from outside India, a facility to deposit tax from overseas bank accounts could be introduced.

One does not have much to say here but one hopes that we move beyond giving welfare programmes for women. In the past year, we have seen violence against women in Manipur, harassment against women wrestlers, and the shocking developments in the Bilkis Bano case before she received justice.

Each of these cases, especially the Bilkis Bano case, pose several questions on the well-being of women, morality and humanity. We have women in important political positions including the President and Finance Minister herself, but they have not taken any strong stand against violence and misbehaviour towards women. The welfare programmes mean nothing if we do not believe in the welfare of women.

Anticipating a boost in welfare spending, Jefferies highlighted the significance of direct benefit transfer and welfare schemes in recent state elections like the widely popular Ladli Behna plan in Madhya Pradesh.

"Stocks exposed to the government capex program may see some correction. We recently cut L&T to neutral in our model portfolio," Jefferies' Mahesh Nandurkar and Abhinav Sinha said.

- The political economy of agriculture and farmers has always been deeply contested in India. The share of agriculture in the economy has declined whereas the share of agriculture in employment has not declined.

- The economy has not produced enough jobs to absorb the labour from agriculture leading to eventual poverty. Successive governments have tried to come up with multiple policies to revive agriculture and industrialise the economy to create jobs. Most of these have not worked as per expectations.

- The government had come up with a policy of doubling farmer’s income. A Committee was instituted which submitted a 14-volume report to achieve the target. The government implemented various policies, reforms and programmes.

Economic Survey: The Economic Survey provides an overview of the state of the economy during the current financial year and establishes the framework for the presentation of the budget for the following fiscal year. Generally, the Economic Survey is presented a day before the Union Budget.

- India may earmark about 4 trillion rupees ($48 billion) for food and fertiliser subsidies for the next fiscal year, two government sources said, indicating fiscal caution ahead of this year's general election.

- Food and fertiliser subsidies account for about one-ninth of India's total budget spending of 45 trillion rupees during the current fiscal year that ends on March 31.

- The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution has estimated next year's food subsidy bill at 2.2 trillion rupees ($26.52 billion), the two sources said. That is 10% higher than a projected outlay of nearly 2 trillion rupees ($24.11 billion) for the current 2023-24 fiscal year. (Reuters)

- The Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to announce Delhi Metro's new corridor to connect Haryana and Uttar Pradesh via Delhi at an estimated project cost of Rs 7,500 crore, a government official said.

- “Delhi Metro’s phase IV will have six corridors. The last 6th corridor remains to be approved. The sixth corridor will extend the red line from Rithala (in Delhi) to Kundli in Haryana. The detailed project report (DPR) has been submitted. The approval is in the final stages,” the official told Moneycontrol.

Ambit Asset Management CEO Sushant Bhansali said, "IT companies delivered better than subdued estimates in Q3. Markets were worried about a slowdown impacting discretionary spending in the US. We believe the IT sector will continue to surprise positively on the earnings front, led by execution of strong deal wins."

Govt capex growth likely to slow down to 10% in FY25

- The government's capital expenditure may witness a significant slowdown in 2024-25, with a Moneycontrol survey of 15 economists suggesting that this week's interim budget may allocate around Rs 11 lakh crore for the same.

- To be sure, a capex target of Rs 11 lakh crore for the next year would still represent a new all-time high. However, it would only be around 10.3 percent higher than the budget estimate of Rs 10 lakh crore for the current financial year which, in turn, was a huge 33.4 percent higher than the budget estimate for 2022-23. The capex growth slowdown in seen as being key to the government's effort to cut its fiscal deficit to achieve the medium-term objective of 4.5 percent of the GDP by 2025-26.

- According to economists, the government may revise down its capex for the current financial year by around Rs 30,000 crore to Rs 9.7 lakh crore. As such, a budget estimate of Rs 11 lakh crore for 2024-25 would represent an increase of 13.4 percent over the revised estimate.

Capital gains on the sale of residential property should be exempted if 50 per cent of the sale realisation is invested in more than one residential property. Currently, long-term capital gains on capital assets are taxed at a rate of 20 percent and the holding period for eligibility is 24 months.

- Shares of public sector undertakings (PSUs) have seen a stupendous rally in the five years that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance government has been in power, with persistent capex in growth verticals such as railways, infrastructure, power and defence.

- This rally across the PSU pack will in the immediate future be determined by the upcoming interim budget, given the government’s capex allocation for each pocket, said analysts.

- However, they warned investors to exercise caution while putting their money in these state-controlled entities as valuations in some stocks look overheated compared with their private peers. In the past one year, one out of every three PSU stock has more than doubled, helping the BSE PSU Index surge over 65 percent.

The Confederation of Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) recommends the definition of affordable housing be revised as a unit with a 90-square-metre (sqm) RERA carpet area in metros and a 120-sqm RERA carpet area in non-metros without a cap on the cost of the unit.

The present limit for deduction of interest against rental income under Section 24(b) of the IT Act is Rs 2 lakh for self-occupied property.

Revised Estimates: Compared to Budget estimates, some ministries or departments may require more money than expected as the financial year progresses. This needs a modification to the allocations announced in the Union Budget. This is called revised estimates, where the government reviews and modifies the allocations as needed.

Harsh Goenka also expressed that sustainability in general will need to get supported through the budget both in terms of incentives and tax policy so that companies are encouraged to embrace sustainable practices and also innovate their products and services to meet global standards. PM Modi’s Green Credits Initiative proposed at the COP 28 summit and also the commitment to balance economic development aspirations with actions on climate change are positive steps that need budget initiatives. With the right framework, India has a good potential to be a generator and exporter of carbon offsets.

- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to intensify measures to stimulate consumption and support the rural economy while maintaining control over inflation in her upcoming presentation of the sixth consecutive budget on February 1.

- Another proposal is related to increasing the funds under the Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme -MGNREGA and higher payout for farmers.

- Women and marginalised communities may get additional sops as part of Sitharaman’s effort to boost consumption ahead of the general elections, experts said.

-Harsh Goenka suggests that the 15 percent tax rate for new manufacturing units could be made more inclusive by extending the benefit to companies that already have a unit and are expanding their manufacturing base by adding another unit.

-"GST rationalisation should continue through a reduction in the number of slabs by merging 12 percent and 18 percent into 15 percent," he added.

Budget Estimates: While presenting the Union Budget, the government allocates funds for various projects, welfare schemes, ministries and department. The allocations listed here are budget estimates. They are not the government’s final commitment, they are called estimates. They indicate the maximum amount of money the government will spend on the specified project, ministry, department or the scheme. Later, the government presents revised estimates detailing out the money allocated for a particular scheme, department or ministry.

- India's economy is forecast to grow 7% in the 2024/25 fiscal year from an estimated 7.3% in the current year that ends on March 31, the government said in its latest review on Monday.

- The estimates come days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government presents its last budget before the country heads to a general election this summer.

- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget on February 1, factoring in the growth projections.

- "The robustness seen in domestic demand, namely, private consumption and investment, traces its origin to the reforms and measures implemented by the government over the last ten years," the review said. (Reuters)

- Edtech firms express hope for potential tax incentives and benefits in the interim budget. They contend that a decrease in Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates on digital educational content and services could enhance the affordability of online learning, proving advantageous for both students and edtech companies.

Finance Bill: Each year, the government introduces the Finance Bill in the Parliament to implement the Budget proposals. The Finance Bill lays out the government’s fiscal strategies. The Finance Bill contains the details on taxation, revenue, expenditure and borrowings, for the upcoming financial year. The Finance Bill provides the legislative backing to the tax proposals of the government. Any proposal on modification to the existing tax rates or introduction of any new tax is contained in the Finance Bill.

Inflation and layoffs across sectors are the two major issues that are worrying Indians and they expect some security from the Union government ahead of the 2024 Budget, according to a survey.

The survey that maps consumer sentiments and expectations from the Union budget 2024 was conducted among 2,500 Indians and more than half of them raised rising inflation as their key concern.

Erratic monsoons, climate change that could impact the agriculture yield is also seen as another important concern area, as it’s a direct contributor to inflation, according to the survey by Kantar, a marketing data and analytics company.

- Although the upcoming budget is an interim one, it is expected to lay the groundwork for future policy decisions. Most brokerages anticipate a focus on fiscal consolidation and priorities regarding capital and non-capital expenditure.

- "We anticipate the policy direction and priorities to align closely with recent budgets, as the government navigates between fostering growth recovery and managing challenging debt dynamics," Elara Capital said in a recent report.

- Sitharaman, who has already presented five annual Budgets, will be unveiling an interim Budget for fiscal 2024-25 on February 1 in the Lok Sabha. It will be the last major economic document before the next general elections.

- Industry says that the government must take measures to boost economic growth in the country as India marches towards becoming the third-largest economy in the coming years. Industry body CII has suggested the launch of the 'National Mission for Advanced Manufacturing' to enhance quality and productivity in manufacturing.
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- "The mission should strengthen the ecosystem for building a technologically advanced manufacturing industry and accelerate the adoption of transformative technologies in the manufacturing sector," it said.

With the imminent pre-election Budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to balance voter appeal through targeted spending without widening the fiscal deficit. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, set to deliver her sixth budget speech on February 1, is expected to leverage the tax windfall from the economy's rapid expansion to sustain infrastructure spending. Key sectors for electoral focus include farmers, women, the poor, and young people. While no major spending spree is anticipated in this interim budget, economists emphasize scrutiny for insights into fiscal consolidation pace and policy priorities leading up to the elections. Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global Financial Services highlights the budget's significance in this context.

As the interim Budget for 2024 approaches on February 1, traders brace for potential market volatility. Here are key do's and don'ts from experts:

1. Volatility Strategies: Tina Gadodia (Quantsapp): Suggests strategies like iron butterfly, calendar spread, or put ratio back spread to safeguard against negative outcomes.

2. Caution on Leverage:Avdhut Bagkar (StoxBox): Advises avoiding over-leveraged positions; suggests sticking to large-cap stocks to mitigate risks during volatile sessions.

3. Strategic Entry Timing: Avdhut Bagkar: Recommends entering the market during the last hour to gain insights and identify major levels post-budget impact.

4. Option Trading Caution: Chandan Taparia (Motilal Oswal): Urges option writers to focus on proper risk management; suggests hedging long positions and selecting strong sectors.

5. Hedging Strategies: Soni Patnaik (JM Financial): Recommends hedging with strategies like bear put strategy, cautioning against naked option writing due to potential volatile swings.

6. Prudent Approach: Sameet Chavan (Angel One): Advocates a prudent approach, recommending a bear put spread in Nifty to navigate potential volatility.

7. Disciplined Trading: Shilpa Rout (Prabhudas Lilladher): Emphasizes disciplined trading and calculated risk-taking, especially for intra-day traders and small investors.

Traders are cautioned against aggressive strategies, emphasizing the need for meticulous planning and risk management during the Budget day's anticipated market fluctuations.

Days ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's interim Budget for 2024-25, the finance ministry, in a report titled 'The Indian Economy: A Review', anticipates a close-to-7% GDP growth in the next fiscal year. The report attributes the robust growth to the strength of domestic demand, particularly private consumption and investment, fostered by government reforms over the last decade. The report emphasizes the bolstering of the supply side through infrastructure investment, both physical and digital, as well as measures supporting manufacturing. In the words of the report, "Accordingly, in 2024-25, real GDP growth will likely be closer to 7 percent."

Anish Srikrishna, CEO of TimesPro, emphasizes the need for budgetary measures to propel India's education system to the next level, focusing on digital literacy and skill development. The proposal advocates collaboration between the National Digital University and EdTech entities to efficiently upskill the population. Incentivizing these initiatives through tax rebates aims to ensure affordability, fostering widespread adoption of technology-led education. The recommendations further include empowering the youth for the job market, ensuring accessibility through infrastructure and financial support, and creating a conducive environment for the sustained growth of the EdTech sector.

Krishan Mishra, CEO of the Financial Planning Standards Board (FPSB India), outlines expectations for the Union Budget 2024-25. Emphasizing the crucial role of National Pension Scheme (NPS) and Public Provident Fund (PPF) in retirement planning, Mishra calls for extending NPS benefits to cover employers' contributions up to 10%. Additionally, he urges a higher limit for PPF, aligning with increased incomes. Mishra envisions a budget that fosters financial resilience and enlightenment, creating a prosperous future for the new Bharat and their second innings.

Manisha Zaveri, Joint Managing Director at Career Mosaic, expresses optimism about the forthcoming budget's potential to unlock opportunities for international student mobility. The focus lies on initiatives fostering collaboration between Indian and international universities, creating avenues for cross-cultural learning and research opportunities. With the sector poised for a post-pandemic resurgence, Zaveri expects the government to make international education more accessible and affordable. Anticipated measures include targeted scholarships for Tier 2 and Tier 3 city students, tax benefits for families supporting overseas education, and streamlined visa processes. A supportive budget in these aspects is seen as crucial for India's long-term economic and intellectual growth.

- Analysts foresee a continued focus on capex, infrastructure, and potential measures for rural upliftment.

- Challenges like poor weather, climate change, and inflation prompt expectations of tax relief and support for agriculture.

- With general elections approaching, analysts anticipate populist moves, including rural spending, tax breaks, and subsidies.

- Poor volume growth in consumer stocks may see a turnaround with policy boosts aimed at reviving rural consumer demand.

- Despite short-term challenges, the outlook for discretionary consumption in the rural sector remains optimistic.

Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, Pralhad Joshi, has taken the initiative to convene an all-party meeting scheduled for January 30, setting the stage for the upcoming Budget Session of Parliament. The session, commencing on January 31, will witness Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presenting the interim budget on February 1. This pre-session gathering aims to foster dialogue and collaboration among various political parties, ensuring a comprehensive and productive discussion during the crucial Budget Session.

- National Investment Pipeline (NIP): Launched in 2020, the NIP aims at an investment of over Rs 1.5 lakh crore across diverse sectors, fostering infrastructural development for India's economic growth.

- National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP): The NMP framework supports the monetisation of brownfield assets, vital for sustaining the investment requirements of NIP and expediting infrastructure development.

- Challenges: Despite these initiatives, the need for private capital remains a hurdle; improvements are crucial for seamless infrastructure development.

- Role of InvITs: Since 2014, Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) have attracted private capital, fostering democratic ownership of infrastructure assets.

- SEBI and Ministry of Finance: Enabling governance and ease of doing business, these entities have facilitated InvITs' success in sectors like roads, pipelines, and transmission.

- Brownfield Asset Monetisation: InvITs focus on monetising brownfield assets, offering growth opportunities while releasing government/developer capital for further investments.

- Frameworks for Growth: The NMP and Acquire, Operate, Maintain, and Transfer (AOMT) frameworks are pivotal for driving InvITs' expansion, emphasizing competitive bidding for true price discovery and investor transparency.

- Moneycontrol survey indicates a potential slowdown in government capital expenditure for 2024-25.

- Interim budget likely to allocate around Rs 11 lakh crore for capital expenditure, a new all-time high.

- Anticipated growth rate of 10.3%, a significant decrease compared to the current fiscal year's 33.4% surge.

- Objective is to trim fiscal deficit, aiming for 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.

- Economists predict a revision down of current fiscal year's capex by around Rs 30,000 crore to Rs 9.7 lakh crore.

- Budget estimate of Rs 11 lakh crore for 2024-25 would signify a 13.4% increase over the revised estimate.

According to a Moneycontrol study of 15 analysts, the government is expected to unveil a budget deficit target of 5.3 percent of GDP for 2024-25 on February 1. It is also expected that market borrowing to finance the deficit will be reduced.

The estimated budget deficit target for the following fiscal year is 5.3 percent, 60 basis points lower than the target for 2023-24, which is largely expected to be met despite higher-than-expected expenditure and lower nominal GDP growth due to a significant increase in tax receipts.

One basis point equals one tenth of a percentage point.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman prepares to present her sixth consecutive budget on February 1, matching the record set by former Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Notably, Sitharaman, the country's first full-time woman finance minister, has already presented five full budgets since assuming office in July 2019. As she gears up for an interim or vote-on-account budget this week, she is poised to equal the remarkable record of PM Morarji Desai, underlining her significant role in shaping India's economic policies.

Investor attention is poised for a dynamic week as stock markets gear up to scrutinize the impending budget. Analysts anticipate significant market movements influenced by the interim budget presentation, US Federal policy decisions, and quarterly earnings reports. With Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman scheduled to present the interim budget for 2024-25 on February 1, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting occurring on January 30 and 31, the week is laden with pivotal events. Foreign investors' trading activities and global trends will also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. Additionally, the disclosure of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector on Thursday adds to the macroeconomic landscape. Stay tuned for comprehensive coverage as the market navigates through these impactful developments.

As Budget 2024 approaches, the salaried class anticipates announcements that may reduce their tax loads. Investment systems including the National Pension System (NPS) and Public Provident Fund (PPF) are expected to be revised.

The Finance Ministry is contemplating a nominal GDP growth of 10.5 percent for the fiscal year 2024-25, based on Moneycontrol polls involving 15 economists. Fiscal consolidation, primarily revenue-driven due to expenditure rigidities, is a key consideration, given its impact on tax collection and, consequently, fiscal consolidation. India's nominal GDP is expected to grow by 8.9 percent this year, reaching Rs 296.58 lakh crore, while the ministry had previously anticipated a 10.5 percent growth to Rs 301.75 lakh crore. Economists from Emkay Global Financial Services project a 5.4 percent gross fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio for 2024-25, assuming a nominal GDP growth of approximately 10.3 percent. Meeting the 2025-26 fiscal deficit goal of 4.5 percent amid debt sustainability may require accelerated consolidation efforts by the government.

The Indian Space Association (ISpA), representing 39 startups and major companies, has fervently urged the government to broaden the Goods and Services Tax (GST) exemption to include satellites, launch vehicles, and ground equipment in the impending Interim Budget. This plea aligns with the sector's call for tax holidays and exemptions, citing the relatively modest profit margins within the space industry.

ISpA is pushing for a reduction in the tax rate to 5 percent on external commercial borrowings and a substantial decrease in the withholding tax on the satellite sector from 10 percent to 2 percent. The association also emphasizes the need for clarity on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy for the space sector.

Adding to the chorus, Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Bengaluru-based startup Digantara, underscores the necessity for a relaxation of custom duties within the space sector. These appeals collectively highlight the industry's expectations for fiscal support and a conducive regulatory environment to foster growth and innovation.

The Financial Budget 2024 holds significant importance for every sector, with the real estate industry emphasizing the need for official recognition as an industry. Saransh Trehan, Managing Director of Trehan Group, highlights the potential benefits, including interest subsidies and relief from stamp duties. Recognizing the pivotal role of streamlined processes, he advocates for a single window clearance system to eliminate project delays. Trehan further urges the government to enhance home loan tax rebates, providing immunity to home buyers and boosting sales. Special incentives for infrastructure projects in Tier 2 and 3 cities are proposed to stimulate real estate investments and meet burgeoning demand.

Interim Budget may see measures to boost consumption demand, push agri economy

- Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to intensify measures to stimulate consumption and support the rural economy while maintaining control over inflation in her upcoming presentation of the sixth consecutive budget on February 1.

- Experts said one way to boost consumption is to put more money in the hands of people, and one of the possible ways of doing it is by reducing the tax burden through tinkering with tax slabs or increasing the standard deduction.