Karnataka Exit Polls: A mixed bag where Congress sits prettier than BJP

Counting of votes is on May 13.

The majority of exit polls on May 10, the day of voting for the Karnataka legislative assembly elections, predicted a hung legislature, although the Congress has an edge over the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

Four polls predicted a categorical victory for the Congress, while one anticipated a win for the BJP. The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to get about 30 seats.

The poll of 11 exit polls, meaning the average, gave 107 seats for the Congress in a house of 224 seats, for which the simple majority required to form the government is 113. It expected 92 seats for the BJP, and 23 for the JD (S), leaving two for independents.

The Election Commission of India is scheduled to announce the results on May 13. The provisional vote percentage was a record 72.67 percent on May 11 morning.

Exit Poll

Exit polls are not usually reliable because respondents prefer not to reveal who they have voted for. There have been instances of exit polls going way off the mark. But there have also been times when the prediction was close to the actual results.

JD (S) as kingmaker?

In 2018, seven agencies predicted a hung assembly in Karnataka, and that was a reality. One pollster predicted a hands-down victory for the BJP.

If there is a hung assembly this time, then the JD (S) may have the final say if it enters the game of government formation despite being a poor third. Earlier, it had shaken hands with both the national parties.

The exit poll for 2023 clearly indicates that the poll battle was fought intensely between the Congress and the BJP. The JD (S) still has a long way to go to spread its wings across the state and has not been able to increase its footprint despite the hectic campaign by state party president HD Kumaraswamy and patriarch and former prime minister HD Deve Gowda.

India Today-Axis MyIndia has given the highest number of seats to the Congress: 131. The next highest prediction, 120, is by News24-Today’s Chanakya, followed by 115 by IndiaTV-CNX and 113 by Times Now-ETG. The rest predict less than 113 for Congress, with the least - 86 - assigned by News Nation-CGS.

Only two pollsters predicted the BJP will touch or cross the century mark. While News Nation-CGS said the ruling party will get 114, one seat more than the simple majority, News18-Rajneeti projected 100 seats. India Today-Axis My India is the only one to predict the BJP will not get more than 71 seats.

For the JD (S), the least score – 12 seats – was predicted by News 24-Today’s Chanakya. No agency predicted wins for more than four independent candidates.

Pre-poll surveys by five local TV channels too had predicted a fractured mandate in the state, while giving an edge to the Congress. TV9-CVoter predicted the Congress will win 106–116 seats.

Both the Congress and the BJP rubbished the exit poll results, saying the numbers were far from the reality. Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee President DK Shivakumar insisted his party will get a minimum of 141 seats. Chief minister Basavaraj Bommai said the exit polls can’t be 100 percent correct. His confidence level in forming the government before and after the polls remains the same.

BJP spokesman Vijaya Prasad told Moneycontrol there is a lot of inconsistency in the numbers put out by the survey agencies.

“Our karyakartas have given us feedback soon after the polling. We go by that feedback. In 2018, the exit polls, on average, predicted that the BJP would get 80–85 seats. But we won 104 seats.”

Congress vice president Suraj Hegde said, “It is better to wait for the final results. Usually, the sample size of the surveying agencies is small. The people of Karnataka are clever. They don’t reveal their minds to anyone before or after the polls. They don’t share their views frankly, even with the media.”

In 2018, the mandate in Karnataka was fractured. The BJP topped the chart with 104 seats, followed by the Congress with 80 and the JD (S) with 37. The Congress-JD (S) ruled the state for the first 14 months, and later the BJP.