How will assembly elections in five states affect BJP and Congress in Lok Sabha polls?

As many forecasters have concluded – on the basis of some surveys carried out by them recently – that the BJP is likely to lose seats in the next election even if it manages to retain power at the Centre.

No matter the outcome, the assembly polls in the five states are bound to impact the mood in favour of or against the BJP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

After having lost the polls in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the BJP is looking to win at least two states. It is under pressure to show that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still way ahead of BJP’s rivals, even though the opposition may have come together and the issues they have raised are gaining traction.

Why BJP Needs Two Wins

A win will mean Modi's appeal among the voters remains not so weakened in the assembly polls as is perceived after setbacks in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka where his campaigning could not overcome severe anti-incumbency issues.

A win in the state polls will be interpreted as the BJP remaining the most fancied one to be able to return to power for a third term in 2024, unhindered by whatever tactics its opponents adopt.

Already, the opposition, buoyed by the coming together of 26 anti-BJP parties, has been trumpeting that the ruling party is unlikely to be successful in retaining power for a third term in Delhi. A loss in MP and Chattisgarh, or failure to regain power in Rajasthan by the BJP, will strengthen the narrative of the opposition.

Opportunities For Congress And Rahul Gandhi

In a worst-case scenario for the BJP, a victory for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and a surprise win in Telangana could well mean not just the revival of the dispensation under the Gandhis. It could spell the return of Rahul Gandhi as the "real" leader among the Opposition leaders who can take on Modi. Others can remain aspirants for the post of PM forever.

Undoubtedly, it will also double up the bargaining power of the Congress in seat-sharing talks with other allies for the Lok Sabha polls of 2024, be it in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee may not be too pleased to see a revival of the Congress.

One may recall that Rahul Gandhi took charge as president of the Congress after the party’s spirited performance in Gujarat in 2017. He was also feted for the strong showing in the 2018 multi-state polls. A clamour for Rahul's return as head of the party as well as projection as PM candidate is bound to grow if the party succeeds again in these four states.

Impact On 2024

As many forecasters have concluded – on the basis of some surveys carried out by them recently – that the BJP is likely to lose seats in the next election even if it manages to retain power at the Centre, the outcome in this round of assembly polls will be used to buttress such projections.

True, the parliamentary elections are a different game. Yet, the inclination to read a larger impact in the assembly polls will be too tempting. The BJP’s own strategists are reported to have made assessments ranging from a simple majority of 272 to winning 240-250 seats in a worst case scenario when compared to 303 it won in 2019.

Therefore, it is all the more imperative for the Opposition leaders to close ranks behind the Congress and accept the pivotal role of Rahul Gandhi in his campaign against PM Modi's almost decade-old rule.

Of course, the 2018 outcome did not come in the way of the BJP winning the Lok Sabha polls of 2019 with a greater mandate, giving thumbs up for Modi for a second term. Similarly, a disappointing outcome, say in MP, Chhattisgarh and Telangana may not stop the BJP from seeking and winning an even larger mandate in 2024.

Modi's target of winning close to 50 percent vote could be doable, depending on the issues that dominate by April-May next year.

The State-Wise Picture

At present, the Congress is in power in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. The BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh where the Congress won with 114 seats to the BJP 109 in 2018. However, the BJP toppled the Kamal Nath government in 2020 because Jyotiraditya Scindia led a rebellion.

In the 2018 Assembly election in Rajasthan, the difference in vote share between the Congress and the BJP was only around 0.5 per cent. However, the Congress strike rate was much better. It won 100 seats against the BJP’s 73.

In Chattisgarh, the Congress won 68 of 90 seats, decimating the BJP aided by the anti-incumbency against three-term Chief Minister Raman Singh.

Till date, the BJP has found the goings-on in Chhattisgarh strongly against it, thanks largely due to current Congress CM Bhupesh Baghel's political management. There is also paucity of leadership among the BJP ranks. The BJP’s vote share has been going down – from 41 per cent in 2013 to 32 per cent in 2018.

In MP, the Congress won five more seats than the BJP in 2018 but with a 0.12 percentage point deficit in votes.

In Telangana, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is still confident about a third term for K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR). But the Congress has managed to displace the BJP as the principal opposition after its impressive win in neighbouring Karnataka where the minority votes played a crucial role. A similar outcome is expected by the Congress while the task for the BJP is further going uphill in the southern state.

Shekhar Iyer is former senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.