Exit Poll Results 2023: Cong leads in Chhattisgarh & Telangana, BJP likely to win MP & Rajasthan

BJP is expected to maintain an edge in the closely contested fight against the Congress in Rajasthan, while Mizoram is projected to throw a fractured mandate

The Indian National Congress is anticipated to come back to power in Chhattisgarh with a majority while engaging in a close race with the Bharatiya Janata Party in Madhya Pradesh. The grand old party is also expected to gain ground in Telangana to unseat the K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as predicted by various pollsters for the just-finished five assembly elections on November 30.

Exit polls have also indicated that BJP is expected to maintain an edge in the closely contested fight against Congress in Rajasthan, while Mizoram is projected to throw a fractured mandate.

The elections for the five states — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram — were conducted in four phases spanning from November 7 to November 30. The results of all these states will be declared on December 3.

Among the five states, BJP holds the reins in Madhya Pradesh, Congress is in power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, while Telangana is under the rule of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and the Mizoram government is run by Mizo National Front (MNF), a regional party.

Chhattisgarh

In Chhattisgarh, at least six opinion polls — India Today-Axis My India, Jan Ki Baat, Republic TV-Matrize, India TV-CNX, and ABP News-C Voter — indicated that Congress is leading the race with an estimated tally ranging from 40 to 56 seats in the 90-member House. The majority mark in Chhattisgarh stands at 46 seats.

BJP, which campaigned on the platform of eradicating corruption in the state, is expected to increase its 2018 tally of 15 seats and is projected to secure anywhere between 30 and 46 seats this time, bringing it close to seizing power, according to the exit polls. The Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to score nil, whereas it had won two seats in the 2018 elections.

The polling for 90 assembly seats of Chhattisgarh was held in two phases with the last leg on November 17.

Congress, which was voted to power in 2018 after 15 years of BJP rule is seen to have played the Hindu card, promising a caste census to counter BJP’s Hindutva ideology, while BJP leaders during public rallies accused Congress of anti-Hindu bias and appeasement politics.

The significance of the state holds particular weight for Congress in light of the upcoming 2024 general elections, especially since it has formed an alliance with 27 other political parties.

The BJP manifesto labelled as “Modi Ki Guarantee” has promised to take the people of the state on a visit to the Ram temple, which is being constructed in Ayodhya, if the party wrestles power from the Baghel-led government.

Meanwhile, Congress announced many lucrative schemes, including announcing an amount of Rs 15,000 to every woman above the age of 18, free education from kindergarten to post-graduation, health cover of Rs 10 lakh to state residents and subsided cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500.

Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress is confident of regaining power following its victory in 2018. However, a revolt led by its former leader, Jyotiraditya Scindia, in 2020 resulted in BJP assuming control of the state government.

Several exit polls indicate a probable return of BJP in the state. Axis My India’s prediction suggests that BJP is poised to claim power with an absolute majority of seats ranging between 140-162, significantly surpassing the majority mark of 116 seats in the 230-member House. The pollster anticipates Congress securing seats in the range of 68-90, with three seats going to other parties.

According to the Jan Ki Baat survey, BJP may secure 100-123 seats, closely followed by Congress with 102-125 seats, while others might secure five seats. Matrize exit poll projects BJP to win 118-130 seats, while estimating Congress to secure 97-107 seats.

Today’s Chanakya predicts an overwhelming victory for BJP with 151 seats, projecting Congress to secure 74 seats. Conversely, Pollstrat suggests that BJP could secure 106-116 seats, while Congress might win 111-121 seats.

On November 17, the state went to polls and recorded a voter turnout of 76.22 percent, which was the highest in its history. The Seoni district recorded the highest voter turnout of 85.68 percent, while the tribal-dominated Alirajpur in the state’s western region recorded the lowest voter turnout of 60.10 percent.

Congress is confident of overthrowing the long-standing BJP government led by Shivraj Chouhan, which has been in power for nearly two decades, except for a brief 15-month period when Congress took office after the 2018 elections.

Congress campaigned on the pledge of conducting a caste survey and prioritising the welfare of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who make up around 48 percent of the state’s population, while BJP banked heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma and popularity to retain power.

BJP’s electoral theme in the state was “Modi Ke Mann Mein MP” (MP close to Modi’s heart) and the slogan “Phir is bar BJP sarkar” (BJP government once more)

It also fielded three Union ministers, including Narendra Singh Tomar, Faggan Singh Kulaste and Prahlad Patel along with four Lok Sabha MPs including Rakesh Singh, Ganesh Singh, Riti Pathak and Uday Pratap Singh.

The saffron party, once more, hasn’t revealed its choice for chief minister in the state, and avoided naming Chouhan as their face due to a perceived fatigue factor, considering his lengthy tenure in office.

Congress’s performance in the Vindhya region, which has a significant tribal population, holds great importance in determining whether they secure a majority or fall short, similar to the 2018 elections when they were two seats short of the majority mark with 114 seats.

Rajasthan

In Rajasthan, the opposition BJP seems poised for victory according to several exit polls conducted on November 30 for the recently contested assembly elections. However, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests a hung assembly, projecting Congress to secure 86-106 seats while the BJP is anticipated to claim 80-100 seats.

Predictions from Times Now ETG indicate that BJP is likely to secure 108 to 128 seats, significantly surpassing the majority mark of 100 in the 200-member House. It suggests that Congress may secure 56-72 seats with other smaller parties and independent candidates expected to secure 13 to 21 seats.

The Jan Ki Baat exit poll forecasts BJP as the victor in the Rajasthan assembly elections, projected to secure a significant 100-122 seats. Meanwhile, Congress is anticipated to secure 62-85 seats, leaving the remaining 14-15 seats likely to be claimed by other parties and independent candidates.

According to ABP-C Voters projection, BJP is predicted to lead in Rajasthan with 104 seats, while Congress is expected to secure 81 seats. The remaining 14 seats are anticipated to be won by other parties.

In the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly, a party or alliance needs to surpass the halfway mark of 100 seats to secure a majority and form the government in the state.

Since 1993, Rajasthan has been swapping between BJP and Congress, every five years. Veteran Congress leader Ashok Gehlot has been the desert state’s chief minister three times, while Vasundhara Raje from BJP has held the position twice during this period.

However, in these elections as well, there is a direct contest between the two parties. On November 25, out of the total 200 seats, polls were held for 199 seats as the election in the Karanpur seat of Sriganganagar district was postponed following the death of Congress candidate Gurmeet Singh Koonar.

In 2018 polls, Congress secured 99 seats to form the government while BJP held ground in 73 seats out of the total 200 seats.

Manipur

The opposition Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) seems to have an edge to come to power in the north-eastern state by crossing the halfway-majority mark of 21 seats, according to the exit polls.

The party is likely to win 15-25 seats out of the 40 constituencies, according to the Jan Ki Baat survey. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) was projected to emerge as a distant second with victory in 12-17 seats, whereas, Congress was predicted to win 7-9 seats and BJP one seat.

Mizoram witnessed a three-way contest among the MNF, ZPM, and Congress during the state’s elections to elect MLAs for the 40-member House on November 7. BJP aims to play a significant role as a potential kingmaker in the state.

The CNX exit poll has forecasted 14-20 seats for the Zoram People’s Party (ZPM), 11-15 for the Mizo National Front (MNF), and 8-10 seats for the Congress. It also predicts one seat for BJP. Commentators, observing the exit poll results, suggest that if the ZPM fails to secure a majority, there are possibilities of it forming an alliance with Congress.

On the other hand, C Voter predicts that the ruling MNF may secure between 15-18 seats, with a similar projection of 15 seats for the ZPM and five seats for Congress. However, it indicates that the BJP might not secure any seats in the state.

In the 2018 polls, the MNF won 26 seats with a 37.8 percent vote share, securing victory. Congress secured five seats, while the BJP won one. In the run-up to state assembly polls, Chief Minister Zoramthanga remained confident in the MNF’s return to power, citing their past performance and the ‘Zo unification’ initiative following ethnic violence in Manipur.

BJP in the last polls contested 39 seats, and Buddha Dhan Chakma was the party’s only winner from Tuichawng, where the Buddhist Chakma people hold the largest voter base.

The party secured 8.09 percent of the total votes polled, with 33 of its candidates losing their deposits. This time, the party has promised to invest Rs 1,000 crore to boost the agricultural infrastructure of the state and introduce 33 percent reservation for women in government jobs, and establish ‘Mizoram Hmeichhiate Battalion’, the state's first all-women police battalion.

Telangana

As per the majority of exit poll predictions, Congress is anticipated to hold an advantage over Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana, potentially concluding the two-term tenure of Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao in the state.

According to Jan Ki Baat, Congress is expected to get 48 to 64 seats, while BRS may win 40 to 55 seats. The survey has given 7-13 seats to BJP and 4 to 7 seats to AIMIM.

Republic-MATRIZE predictions say Congress has the possibility of getting 58-68 seats, BRS 46-56, BJP may emerge victorious on seats between 4-9 seats and AIMIM can win 5-7 seats.

Today's Chanakya exit poll results have predicted a landslide victory for Congress with 71 seats, whereas BRS may get 33-9 seats, BJP can win seats and gave eight seats to others.

Meanwhile, the pollster CNX has predicted that BRS will retain power with 70 seats in Telangana, with Congress being a close second. Meanwhile, BJP and AIMIM are predicted to get 7 seats each.

Telangana had the lengthiest campaign among the five states in the November polls, as the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) aimed for a third term. The challenge for the 119-member House intensified, with the BRS, Congress, and BJP in a three-way battle.

Since 2014, when Telangana became a separate state, the BRS has been in power. The party relied on its track record of development and improved governance. However, it is facing anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption and dynasty politics.

Congress, which campaigned aggressively in the state, accused the BRS of corruption, creating unemployment, and failing to fulfil its promise of supporting women. The party has promised six guarantees, including regular financial support for women and farmers.

Meanwhile, BJP’s campaign, led by PM Modi, criticised both the KCR-led party and Congress for dynastic politics and corruption. The BJP sought support to ensure the state gets a “double engine government” — with BJP in both the state and Centre — to execute development on the ground.

This election season marks the final opportunity before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, underlining their significance for national parties BJP and Congress as they vie to establish their dominance. The results are scheduled to be announced on Sunday, December 3.