BUSINESS
Macroeconomic choices and fiscal runway for Budget 2023
While the fiscal deficit for FY24 is likely to be 5.7-5.8 percent of GDP, there is scope for a somewhat larger cut in FY24, despite the challenging economic circumstances, given that the subsidies required for fertilisers and food might be somewhat lower next year, thanks to the drop in prices
BUSINESS
GDP | Q2 growth print masks underlying impulses in economic activity
GDP growth moderated from 27 percent in Q1 to 16 percent in Q2, reflecting the lower WPI inflation. This is expected to moderate further in the quarters ahead, which will allow a respite from the front loaded monetary policy tightening
BUSINESS
Core inflation more persistent than food inflation, and that’s a concern
The MPC is unlikely to match the aggressive US Fed rate hikes given that persisting inflation in India is still largely food driven
POLITICS
Indian Rupee has shown resilience in the midst of global headwinds
The RBI’s foreign exchange management kept the Indian Rupee stable during a period of extreme global volatility and tight external financial conditions
BUSINESS
RBI monetary policy meet today: What to expect
Being risk averse by disposition, the Monetary Policy Committee and the RBI will probably choose to be conservative, given evolving risks, and will hold off on normalisation till February, when the public health risks become clearer
BUSINESS
RBI Monetary Policy | Vigilant, mildly hawkish tone but G-SAP and VRRR actions signal start of normalisation
The RBI has consistently demonstrated a well thought, data driven, sequencing of steps to ensure an “orderly borrowing programme [and] an orderly evolution of the yield curve as a public good”. This modus operandi is likely to continue.
