BUSINESS
Yearender 2022: Expect more clarity on economic puzzles in 2023
Hopefully, idiosyncrasies from multiple shocks will dissipate and the new year will shine a light on conflicting indications
BUSINESS
Can G20 bridge gulf between geopolitics and macroeconomics for responding to a crisis?
Addressing the most pressing of the global challenges require bridging the gulf between geopolitics and macroeconomics, which tempers optimism about the G20’s ability to resolve the common problems faced by a world economy in crisis
BUSINESS
A sense of a relapse instead of firming recovery is gaining ground
Disappointing downgrades, data, and dismal external environment could stunt recovery
BUSINESS
Inflation or growth — which side of the equation will RBI consider?
Although supporting a recovery may have precedence, a growing divergence in monetary policy and negative real rates will not be easy to sustain in a hazardous environment of unknown duration
BUSINESS
Inflation, Growth, Recovery | It is a bit early to celebrate
It’s pertinent to flag that common global factors are returning foreign investors back to emerging markets of which India is a part; they are less drawn by country-specific reasons
BUSINESS
Time will tell the extent to which the rupee gets internationalised
Going by the experience of masala bonds, it is worth noting that their issuance has remained a very minor and insignificant fraction of overall external commercial borrowings
BUSINESS
Inflation pipelines swelling as a long period of global macro instability begins
The RBI’s sanguineness on inflation (negative real rates) suggests it considers India an exception to this trend
BUSINESS
Inflation | Slaying the enemy gets complicated
Intensifying price pressures, external challenges raise the costs to output
BUSINESS
RBI delivers a punch, starts removing punchbowl
The RBI has communicated in advance that if inflation surprises on the upside, it will act. No surprise there
BUSINESS
High levels of uncertainties add to stagflation risks
To avoid hurting private consumption and stagflation forces building, the government will have to intervene effectively to restrain food, fuel, and fertiliser prices
BUSINESS
For monetary and fiscal policies, growth is the laggard
Against the intensifying macro uncertainties, geopolitical developments, oil price gyrations, and inflationary pressures at large overseas, growth may well turn out the laggard ahead
BUSINESS
FY22 GDP | Mixed bag under Omicron’s shadow
If inflation starts weighing down upon consumption, observed already in consumers’ future and discretionary spending intentions, the strength of economic recovery could waver
BUSINESS
GDP catch-up is just about while consumption decline deepens
Encouraging as the data may be, it is superficial over the deep troughs of one year ago. Compared to the pre-pandemic levels, the growth catch-up is a bare 0.33 percent rise in correspondence
BUSINESS
Don’t get your hopes high, bond market development could be a mirage
Wishing bond market development on spurious signs will not deliver one, but improving corporate governance to inspire the trust essential for financial contracts may do so
BUSINESS
RBI, IMF see growth intact, inflation declining. Good time to roll back excess liquidity
The key question is how much could domestic interest rates rise with normalising liquidity in the given growth-inflation settings? The timing is significant for understanding this
BUSINESS
Securing a recovery is tougher than handling the crisis
When the revival is marked with oscillations and bumps, and its path is less of a smooth and continuous affair, securing it firmly is easier in theory than in practice
BUSINESS
Why the RBI is pro-growth
The central bank considers the economy to be fragile — a weaker state takes longer to recover from shocks and catch-up to where it was before the pandemic. That explains why the central bank is wary of trapping the economy in a low-growth situation for a longer period
BUSINESS
Between inflation and growth, the latter remains taller risk
Although inflation remains above the RBI’s upper band, and core inflation firms around 6 percent, the high energy costs and pandemic-related forces are dominant drivers
BUSINESS
Is there a risk of market correction?
Growing divergence in producer-consumer prices a sign of declining profits ahead
BUSINESS
Growth downgrades are just the beginning, further pruning likely
The deterioration is likely to be more than foreseen
BUSINESS
A resurgent COVID-19 strains monetary-fiscal policies, growth
Policies in delicate territory as adverse combination unfolds
BUSINESS
Budget Fallout: The central bank jostles markets
Challenge of repressing yields intensifies, expands battle in the forex market
BUSINESS
Economic Recovery | Overdo and reality
Conflicting signs and incomplete information aggravate demand uncertainties
BUSINESS
Fiscal support: Missing piece in an improving macro picture
Stimulus indications by the government should materialise in the remaining year
