Why China’s population keeps shrinking despite policy push

Why China’s population keeps shrinking despite policy push

• China's population declined for a fourth year in 2025 as deaths exceeded births
• Policy incentives failed to boost birth rates amid economic and social pressures
• China's ageing population and shrinking workforce strain pensions and healthcare

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China’s population declined for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, as the number of deaths again exceeded births. The figures underscore the limits of Beijing’s efforts to reverse a demographic slide that is reshaping the country’s economy and workforce, the New York Times reported.

Official data released this week showed that 7.92 million babies were born last year, down sharply from 9.54 million in 2024. Deaths rose to 11.31 million, continuing a trend driven by an ageing population.

Policy efforts fail to lift births

Chinese authorities have rolled out a wide range of measures aimed at encouraging couples to have children. These have included public campaigns framing childbirth as a civic duty, subsidies for families and housing incentives for married couples.

More recent steps have drawn public attention for different reasons. From January, a value-added tax was imposed on contraceptives and condoms, a move widely interpreted online as another attempt to nudge people toward having children.

Officials have also promoted marriage more aggressively, urging local governments to influence attitudes toward family life. Some measures, such as tracking menstrual cycles or tightening abortion guidelines, have drawn criticism for being intrusive.

Young adults remain unconvinced

Despite the policy push, many young Chinese say they are delaying or rejecting parenthood for economic reasons. High housing costs, weak job prospects and a slowing economy have made long-term commitments feel risky.

Youth unemployment remains elevated, and many graduates struggle to secure stable income. With limited social welfare support, families continue to shoulder most of the cost of raising children.

On social media, reactions to the contraceptive tax were largely dismissive. Many users said the cost of raising a child far outweighed any price increase on birth control.

Demographic pressures build

Demographers say China has crossed a threshold that makes population decline difficult to reverse. Fertility rates are now so low that even sustained incentives are unlikely to restore growth.

The shrinking number of working-age citizens poses long-term risks. Fewer workers will be available to support a rapidly expanding elderly population, placing strain on pension and healthcare systems.

China’s leadership, including Xi Jinping, has called for a shift in attitudes toward marriage and childbearing. But analysts say policy tools have limited reach when social norms and economic pressures are moving in the opposite direction.

Ageing accelerates fiscal strain

China’s population aged 60 and above is projected to reach about 400 million by 2035. At the same time, the working-age population is shrinking faster than expected.

The government has begun raising the retirement age for the first time in decades, though it remains low by international standards. Officials plan a gradual increase over the coming years, but resistance remains strong.

Marriage rates continue to fall

Marriage rates have declined steadily over the past decade, while divorces have risen. Local governments have experimented with incentives for matchmakers and dating programmes, but uptake has been limited.

Those working in the matchmaking business say demand has softened. Many young people, particularly women, show little interest in marriage, let alone starting families.

For policymakers, the challenge is becoming clearer. Even as economic growth slows and the population ages, reversing China’s demographic decline is proving far harder than designing policies to address it.