MC EXCLUSIVE Is the world rethinking US dependence under Trump 2.0?

Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s second term is emerging as a catalyst for a broader global rebalancing, with countries across Europe, Asia and the Western Hemisphere reassessing their security, trade and diplomatic dependence on the United States amid growing uncertainty about Washington’s reliability.

According to Harsh V Pant, Vice President of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Trump 2.0 has unsettled America’s partners to such an extent that governments are now actively recalibrating how much they can rely on the US over the long term.

Pant situates this shift within a wider pattern of global anxiety triggered by the Trump administration’s foreign policy approach. “I think it is quite extraordinary that Trump’s second term, in Trump’s second term we find that America’s partners are much more in distress than America’s so-called adversaries and America’s allies and partners,” he said. He warned that the implications of this anxiety extend well beyond the current political moment in Washington. “How this will play over the course of next few years is quite unsettling because it will have long term implications for everyone not simply for America but also for America’s partners and how they calibrate their reliance on the US.”

From dependence to hedging

Pant argues that the unpredictability of Trump’s second term has forced countries to accept that Washington will increasingly “play by its own logic”, regardless of alliance structures or shared histories. As a result, the world is entering a phase where hedging against US volatility is no longer optional.

“I think countries, all countries, are trying to rebalance and India will have to find its own partners and its own ways of navigating this turbulence,” Pant said. “Accepting the fact that Washington will play by its own logic and will have its own approach which may not be completely or which may not be as in sync with the Indian approach as perhaps it was for the last several decades.”

This reassessment, Pant emphasises, is not confined to India. Even formal US allies are now grappling with a strategic dilemma far more severe than that faced by non-aligned partners. “If you look at other alliance partners like Japan, South Korea, Australia, they are in a much more difficult position,” he noted, contrasting their treaty obligations with India’s relative flexibility.

Europe, trade and strategic autonomy

Pant points to Europe as a key theatre where this rebalancing is already visible. Faced with uncertainty about US commitments, European countries are diversifying both their security thinking and their economic partnerships.

“If you look around the world countries have begun to do the same,” Pant said. “We have seen this new momentum in India–EU relations… the EU has gone and signed a deal with Mercosur in Latin America.”

He also highlighted Canada’s recent diplomatic outreach as a telling indicator of this shift. “Canada has just recently reached out to China trying to recalibrate its ties with China against the backdrop of Mr Trump’s push back against Canada,” Pant said, underscoring how even close US partners are seeking alternatives when confronted with pressure from Washington.

Building new capabilities beyond the US

Beyond trade and diplomacy, Pant argues that Trump 2.0 is pushing countries to rethink their security dependence on the United States and to invest in autonomous capabilities. In situations where partners lack the ability to resist US pressure, acquiescence may be unavoidable in the short term—but the long-term response is likely to be more structural.

“When the partners have no capability to push back then you have to acquiesce,” Pant said. “But you know that would also mean that we will see new capabilities being developed, new ways of pushing back, more creative ways of pushing back coming into place.”

He cited evolving debates in Europe as evidence of this shift. “We are already seeing some of that in the case of Greenland, we are seeing how countries like Germany are beginning to rethink their national security strategies,” Pant said, pointing to a broader reassessment of post-Cold War assumptions about US leadership.

A turning point in the global order

Pant places Trump’s second term within a longer historical arc, arguing that the changes now underway could reshape the foundations of the international system.

“I think all of this will have a long term impact on the evolution of global order,” he said. “We are looking at a moment in global politics where foundations for some long term changes are being put into place.”

For Pant, the central consequence of Trump 2.0 is not simply policy disruption, but a deeper erosion of confidence in the United States as a predictable anchor of the global system. As countries diversify partnerships, build independent capabilities and hedge against volatility, dependence on Washington is no longer taken for granted.

The result, he suggests, is a world in transition, one where US power remains significant, but where trust in US leadership is increasingly conditional, and where global actors are quietly but decisively preparing for a future less centred on Washington.