Iran offers to 'facilitate dialogue' as Pakistan declares 'open war' on Afghanistan

Iran steps in amid Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation

Iran has offered to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan after Islamabad declared the neighbours were in “open war” following a fresh round of cross-border air strikes and exchanges of fire.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran stands ready to provide any assistance necessary to facilitate dialogue and to enhance understanding and cooperation between the two countries,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X.

The offer came after Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on February 27 that the country was now in “open war” with Afghanistan. Pakistani forces carried out strikes inside Afghan territory, which Islamabad said targeted militant camps. The Taliban administration in Kabul condemned the action as a violation of sovereignty. Both sides have reported casualties.

Tehran, which shares borders with both Pakistan and Afghanistan, has maintained close ties with Islamabad while also engaging with the Taliban authorities, though it has not formally recognised their government. During a previous flare-up between the two sides in October, Iran similarly offered to help ease tensions.

Military imbalance

The escalation has drawn attention to the significant imbalance between the two militaries — a factor that could shape both the trajectory of the conflict and diplomatic efforts to contain it.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance, Pakistan fields around 660,000 active military personnel, including approximately 560,000 in the army. It also maintains roughly 500,000 reservists and nearly 290,000 paramilitary forces.

Afghanistan under Taliban rule reports about 172,000 active personnel, with plans to expand to 200,000. These figures are based on Taliban statements and international reporting, with no independent verification.

Air power represents the starkest disparity. Pakistan operates about 465 combat aircraft, including F-16 and JF-17 fighter jets, as well as more than 250 helicopters supported by airborne early warning systems and integrated radar networks. Afghanistan has no functioning combat jet fleet, with only a limited number of aircraft and helicopters believed to be operational.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates Pakistan’s defence spending at $10.2 billion in 2024, roughly 2.4 per cent of GDP. Afghanistan’s military budget is not transparently published and is widely considered to be far smaller, constrained by sanctions and economic isolation.

Pakistan also possesses nuclear weapons — SIPRI estimates around 170 warheads — while Afghanistan has none, creating a pronounced strategic asymmetry, though such weapons are intended for deterrence rather than limited cross-border clashes.

Regional stakes

Despite Pakistan’s conventional superiority, Afghanistan’s Taliban fighters have decades of experience in insurgent warfare, particularly in mountainous terrain along the disputed 2,600-kilometre Durand Line.

The current confrontation appears to stem from cross-border counter-militant operations rather than large-scale mobilisation. Still, the declaration of “open war” has heightened tensions across the region.

Iran’s intervention underscores the risks of further escalation. By positioning itself as a potential mediator, Tehran is seeking to prevent instability along its eastern frontier and reinforce its diplomatic influence.

Whether dialogue will prevail over confrontation remains uncertain, but the military arithmetic highlights the urgency of de-escalation efforts.