China’s birth rate hits record low since 1949 as population drops by 3.4 million

China Birth Rate Hits Lowest Since 1949 in Blow to Baby Drive

China’s demographic crisis has deepened as the country recorded its lowest birth rate since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, despite a series of government incentives aimed at encouraging larger families.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday revealed that China’s birth rate dropped to 5.6 per 1,000 people in 2025. The number of newborns fell by 1.62 million, totaling just 7.92 million, a decline of 17% compared with the previous year.

The total population shrank by 3.4 million to 1.405 billion, marking the sharpest fall since the 1960 Great Famine.

The figures deal a setback to President Xi Jinping’s push to build a fertility-friendly society. A shrinking workforce and a rapidly ageing population are raising concerns over long-term economic sustainability and the pressure on China’s pension system.

To counter the trend, Beijing has rolled out pro-natalist policies, including extended maternity and paternity leave, easier marriage registration, and direct financial support. Couples now receive about $500 annually for each child under three, while a 13% value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and devices has been reintroduced from January 1, 2026.

He Yafu, an independent demographer, said the amount of government subsidies is “too small” to meaningfully lift birth rates. He also pointed to fewer women of childbearing age and declining marriage rates as key reasons behind the continued fall.

The shrinking pool of potential mothers is partly the legacy of the one-child policy, which was scrapped in 2015 but has left lasting structural imbalances in China’s population.