Big tariffs, bigger receipts: Study finds Americans, not foreigners, are paying 96% of Trump’s tariff costs

US President Donald Trump

• Study finds US consumers pay 96% of tariff costs, not foreign countries
• US manufacturing lost 60,000 jobs since tariffs began in April 2025
• Export volumes to US dropped sharply; exporters redirected sales elsewhere.

Did our AI summary help?

After nearly a year of claims that tariffs would strengthen the US economy while forcing other countries to pay up, new research suggests the opposite is happening. American consumers are bearing almost the entire cost.

According to a study published Monday by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, Americans are paying 96% of the burden from tariffs as higher prices filter through to everyday goods.

When President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, he said the United States had been “looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered” by friends and foes alike. The data, however, shows the tariffs have largely come out of American wallets.

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” wrote Julian Hinz, research director at the Kiel Institute and an author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.”

The findings come as Trump continues to use tariffs as leverage in non-trade political disputes. Over the weekend, he escalated tensions with Europe after Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland sent troops to Greenland for training exercises. Those countries face a 10% tariff from February 1, set to rise to 25% on June 1 if no deal is reached for the US to buy Greenland.

On Monday, Trump also threatened a 200% tariff on French wine after French President Emmanuel Macron declined to join Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza, which requires a $1 billion buy-in for permanent membership.

The study shows that while export prices have largely remained stable, export volumes have fallen sharply. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on India in August, exports to the US dropped between 18% and 24% compared to shipments to the European Union, Canada and Australia. Exporters have instead redirected sales to other markets, avoiding the need to slash prices, the researchers found.

“There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the US in the form of tariffs,” Hinz told The Wall Street Journal.

Hinz and his team analysed more than 25 million shipment records between January 2024 and November 2025, covering nearly $4 trillion in trade. They found exporters absorbed just 4% of the tariff costs, while American importers passed most of the increase on to consumers.

While tariffs have boosted US customs revenue by $200 billion, the study notes that almost all of this money ultimately comes from Americans themselves. The authors compare the effect to a consumption tax that shifts wealth from consumers and businesses to the US Treasury.

Trump has also argued that tariffs would revive US manufacturing, but the economy has shed manufacturing jobs every month since April 2025. Between Liberation Day and November, the sector lost around 60,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule as early as today on whether Trump’s use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs is legal. The court had initially signalled a decision last week but delayed without explanation.