Bangladesh elections minus Sheikh Hasina: Why India is watching the results closely

Historic Bangladesh elections: Implications for India’s security and trade

• Bangladesh holds historic elections after Hasina's ouster and 15 years of Awami rule.
• BNP and Jamaat are main contenders; India closely monitors shifting dynamics
• Bangladesh's vote impacts India's economy, security, and geopolitics.

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India’s neighbor Bangladesh is set to hold historic general elections, marked by the dramatic ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Her removal ended 15 years of Awami League rule and brought in an interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus. India is closely monitoring the elections, as the dynamics of its relationship with Dhaka have shifted significantly following the end of Hasina’s regime.

Leaving Awami League out of the game, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami are the main contenders, vying to capture voters who once supported Hasina.

Analysts expect the BNP to be the frontrunner, but a coalition led by Jamaat, aided by a youth-driven Gen-Z party, is also showing strength. Tarique Rahman’s return from a 17-year political exile and the death of former PM Khaleda Zia have further energized BNP supporters, making this a tightly contested race.

Why India should look closely? 

For India, the outcome carries major geopolitical and economic implications. Under Hasina, Dhaka was a close and reliable partner, but her ouster has created uncertainty. Bangladesh shares a 4,000-kilometre border with India and anchors the Northeast region, providing key transit routes that reduce dependence on the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor.

India exported $11.1 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh between April 2023 and March 2024 and imported $1.8 billion, highlighting strong economic interdependence.

India has raised concerns about attacks on minorities, with External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stating, “We continue to witness a disturbing pattern of recurring attacks on minorities as well as their homes and businesses by extremists.” Security concerns have also prompted India to withdraw families of officials posted in Bangladesh and restrict tourist visas.

Diplomatic engagements

Despite tensions, diplomatic channels remain active. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met interim leader Muhammad Yunus at a BIMSTEC summit in April 2025, while External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has visited Dhaka, including attending Khaleda Zia’s funeral. India has reiterated support for “a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh,” as noted by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.

With the election outcome determining not only domestic leadership but also the alignment of foreign policy and regional stability, India and other global powers are closely watching how Bangladesh navigates this historic vote.

US factor

These elections come amid a new US-Bangladesh trade agreement that reduces tariffs on Bangladeshi goods to 19%, slightly above the 18% applied to India. However, New Delhi’s main concern lies elsewhere, the deal includes a zero-duty provision for certain Bangladeshi textile and apparel products made with US-produced cotton and man-made fiber. For India’s textile industry, which had hoped to benefit from the India-US interim trade agreement, this clause could undermine the competitive advantage it was expecting.

China factor 

Bangladesh’s strategic position in the Bay of Bengal makes it a focal point for China and the US. China gains a less crowded route to the Indian Ocean and strengthens trade and defense ties, including projects like the Padma Bridge and the BNS Pekua submarine base.