Asia’s big fear after Iran strikes: Will the US pull ships and missiles from the China front?

Some analysts have even suggested his military actions are part of a grand plan to enable the United States to focus on containing China.

• Asian allies worry US focus on Iran may weaken Indo-Pacific defenses
• Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea concerned over shrinking US military presence
• US munitions and missile deliveries to Asia face possible delays

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Japanese lawmakers met bureaucrats at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo on Monday to seek clarity on evacuation plans, energy stocks and the legal basis for US military action against Iran, but discussions also centred on a broader strategic concern: whether Washington could divert ships and missiles away from Asia as the Middle East conflict deepens, according to Reuters.

One question raised at the closed-door meeting, described to Reuters by a politician who attended, was how the region would respond if US assets currently used to deter China were shifted to the Middle East, leaving a gap in Asia’s defences.

According to Reuters, the issue is particularly sensitive for Japan and South Korea, which host large US military bases that support deterrence against China and nuclear-armed North Korea. Democratic Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own and which is armed by Washington, is also closely watching developments.

“We hope this operation is fast, limited, and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia,” Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker in Taiwan who sits on its parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee, told Reuters.

Chen said a prolonged conflict could harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific” and added that Taipei must prepare for Beijing to step up “coercion” while the United States is distracted, according to Reuters.

US President Donald Trump has said operations in the Middle East would last four or five weeks but could continue longer. He plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March, though Beijing has not confirmed the visit, Reuters reported.

Responding to questions on Taiwan, Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, said on Tuesday that Taiwan is an internal matter for China and that Beijing firmly opposes the use of force to infringe on the sovereignty and security of other countries, as quoted by Reuters.

Concerns over US naval posture

The Japanese politician who described Monday’s meeting told Reuters that a senior foreign ministry official said Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that US military assets would not be shifted away from the region.

About 40 percent of US Navy ships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report last month, Reuters reported.

These include the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and at least six missile destroyers based in Pacific ports in California, Hawaii and Japan, the US Naval Institute said on Monday, according to Reuters.

The only US aircraft carrier currently deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance at its base in Yokosuka, Japan.

“The U.S. Navy is stretched thin,” Bryan Clark, a former US defence official specialising in naval operations at the Hudson Institute, told Reuters.

If the war dragged on, there was a realistic possibility that the United States could reduce its naval presence in Asia to reinforce the Iran conflict, Clark said, adding: “The fleet … is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theatre.”

Munitions, missile deliveries and deterrence

Reuters reported that the Iran conflict is also depleting US munitions reserves, an issue experts have flagged in the past. The US military has asked defence firms to increase production, but rebuilding stockpiles could take years.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive, told Reuters that rebuilding munitions reserves in the Indo-Pacific is central to deterring China from military action on Taiwan over the medium term.

Japan has already faced delays in deliveries of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the United States and could fall further behind schedule, Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told Reuters.

Strategy shift or prolonged entanglement?

Reuters noted that it has been three months since Washington unveiled a new security strategy identifying the Indo-Pacific as the key “geopolitical battleground” and prioritising deterrence over Taiwan.

Since then, Trump has captured the leader of Venezuela in a military strike, threatened to annex Greenland and joined Israel in launching air operations against Iran, according to Reuters.

While some Asian allies worry the United States may be diverting focus, analysts cited by Reuters said Beijing may not immediately benefit. By targeting Venezuela and Iran, two countries that supplied China with oil, the US has weakened partners that contributed to China’s energy security, Reuters reported.

Some analysts told Reuters that the military actions could form part of a broader strategy to address Middle East dynamics before shifting resources back to Asia.

“The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources toward dealing with China,’” a Japanese ruling party lawmaker told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to shift.”

Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer with the Royal Australian Navy and a non-resident fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, told Reuters that China has previously taken advantage of US distraction, pointing to its rapid militarisation of South China Sea islands during the US war in Afghanistan.

“Beijing will be watching closely,” Parker told Reuters.