Taiwan ruling party loses local elections in setback for pro-independence faction

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen delivers a speech

Taiwan’s China-sceptic President Tsai Ing-wen resigned as leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after it lost local elections to the opposition Kuomintang over the weekend, suggesting voters were more concerned about domestic issues than Beijing’s territorial claims.

The DPP has been in power since 2016 and Tsai still has a little more than a year left of her current second term as president. But the outcome of the November 26 elections will shape the race to replace Tsai and could hasten the process of her becoming a lame-duck president for the rest of her term.

“The election results were not as expected... I ought to shoulder all the responsibility and I am resigning as DPP chairwoman immediately,” Tsai said.

The local elections in Taiwan normally do not generate much interest outside the island. But they were closely followed in China and the US this year.

In their first in-person meeting on the side-lines of the G20 summit in Bali this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Joe Biden that Taiwan was the first “red line” that should never be crossed if the US wanted to have a competitive but healthy relationship with China.

Beijing’s concerns

The US President assured him there was no change in Washington’s “one China” policy – an acknowledgment that Taiwan is part of mainland China. But the US wants reunification to be peaceful and not done through force.

While addressing the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October, Xi said he would never give up the option of force to get back Taiwan.

But the US has also remained ambiguous on whether it will come to Taiwan’s rescue if it was attacked by China. This ambiguity is expected to deter China from using force on Taiwan, observers said.

DPP’s pro-independent policies had raised serious concerns in Beijing since it came to power. China cut off communications with Taiwan and ramped up diplomatic and military pressure on the island.

The Kuomintang (KMT), on the other hand, favours eventual unification with China and had previously overseen a historic expansion of ties with Beijing, easing travel, trade, and investment across the Taiwan Strait.

China said the local elections in Taiwan “revealed that mainstream public opinion in the island is for peace.” It said it wanted to work with Taiwan’s people to promote peaceful relations and firmly oppose Taiwan independence and foreign interference.

A strong KMT showing seems to have reassured Beijing, but it forced Tsai to resign as DPP chair. She could now use her moderating influence on the pro-independence factions to diminish the rhetoric to separate from the mainland. Or she could raise the bar further to heighten tension with China before the 2024 election.

However, Tsai will not be able to contest beyond her two terms. A lot will now depend on the DPP leader who is chosen to succeed her as the party’s candidate for 2024’s presidential election.

The elections were technically a local affair to choose city mayors, councillors, and county chiefs. But Tsai used it to send a message against China’s growing threatening postures towards Taiwan.

China claims Taiwan to be a breakaway province of the mainland – the People’s Republic of China (PRC) – which is ruled from Beijing by the Chinese Communist Party. So far, the PRC has never governed Taiwan.

China has been increasingly assertive in its territorial claims over Taiwan. It launched a series of coercive military exercises around Taiwan in August, protesting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to the island.

Leadership referendum

In the run-up to the local elections, Tsai and the DPP frequently cited persistent military threats from Beijing and said Taiwan would only be able to stand up to mainland China and protect the island by voting for the ruling party.

Observers said the overuse of DPP’s nationalism card made the public immune to the Chinese threat. If this indifference continues, it could reflect during the campaign for the 2024 presidential election, set to start in three to four months.

In a video message on the eve of the local elections, Tsai described the weekend polls as a referendum on her leadership and said voting for the DPP candidates was a vote for her and her commitment to “take good care” of Taiwan.

Analysts said the results showed voters were focused on domestic issues like the economy and social welfare. They said Taiwanese voters have become “desensitised” to China’s military threat and therefore, were not willing to react to it with the kind of urgency that the DPP wanted them to.

Analysts said the DPP’s China threat card is facing diminishing marginal returns over time. The results of the local elections reflect the level of support for Tsai’s administration and people’s satisfaction with the ruling DPP party.

The outcome is also seen as an important indicator for both the ruling party and the main opposition in shaping their strategies for the upcoming presidential and legislative elections.

Taiwanese voters chose the leaders of 21 counties and cities. In the past, many mayors from capital Taipei, a city of 2.5 million people, have gone on to run for president.

Chiang Wan-an, the great-grandson of late KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek, won the race for mayor in the capital. Retaking Taipei for the KMT will elevate the 43-year-old Chiang to the top ranks of the party's future presidential contenders.

But analysts said Chiang still lacks political experience and is unlikely to be considered as the KMT’s presidential candidate in 2024.

However, it remains to be seen how the Taiwan issue now plays out in China and the US as they closely watch the likely candidate who will lead the country in future.