China has bought more than half the soybeans it promised from US

A soybean harvest at a farm near Rochester, Minnesota. (Photographer: Ben Brewer/Bloomberg)

China has secured at least 7 million tons of US soybeans after heavy buying in the past two weeks, passing the halfway mark toward meeting its 12-million ton purchase agreement with the Trump administration, according to people familiar with the deals.

The tally follows a wave of buying from Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic grain reserves. The stockpiler booked about 2 million tons from the US last week, according to the people. That has continued this week, with purchases of at least seven soybean cargoes, or more than 400,000 tons, they said.

The appearance of Sinograin in the market, which adds to deals booked by state-owned firm Cofco, could ramp up the pace of China’s imports. The purchases also are coming as the Asian nation was auctioning large volumes of soybeans from state reserves to clear space for the incoming cargoes.

Sinograin did not reply to a fax seeking comment.

Grains markets and American farmers have been closely watching soybean purchases amid a lack of visibility into the agreement reached after a meeting between President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping in late October, which called for China to buy at least 12 million tons of the oilseed. The Asian nation has yet to confirm details of its deal with the US.

American officials also have given differing deadlines for the purchases, adding more confusion. The US initially said the goal would be reached by the end of the year, but then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said buying would be completed by the end of February, when China’s purchases from Brazil start to ramp up seasonally.

The pace of buying has been opaque. Officially, the US Department of Agriculture has reported less than 5 million tons of soybeans sold to China, but the total has been widely considered to be higher. The US government shutdown has also delayed weekly export sales data, keeping some of the purchases by China under wraps.

USDA said Thursday that 114,000 tons of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, adding to the nearly 3 million tons of such sales already on the books. Cargoes sold to unknown destinations can see their destinations changed to China at shipment.

Ultimately, sellers in the US and buyers in China expect the target to be met, but murkiness on exactly when the supplies will ship — coupled with an expected record Brazilian harvest in the next few months — means that prices remain under pressure.

Soybean futures in Chicago have slid roughly 9% from a peak in November, giving up much of a rally sparked by hopes for the opening of China trade. Prices fell Thursday, dropping as much as 0.6%.

“In the absence of the formalized deal, the market is concerned that we have too many beans,” No Bull Ag analyst Susan Stroud said by phone.

Brazil’s soybeans are already cheaper than the US. While current purchases by China state firms are influenced by the trade pact, other private buyers have less of an incentive to overpay for American beans, with recent rainfall in Brazil helping to boost fields.

“This is an uphill battle from January and February forward,” Stroud said. “Traditionally, we don’t gain back any sort of market share unless Brazil has a weather problem.”

Farmers and traders have been pining for a return of trade with China. The country’s avoidance of US crops during the autumn harvest pressured farmers and worsened a cash crunch at a time when bankruptcies have been rising. The Trump administration unveiled a $12 billion aid package earlier this month, in part to help farmers hurt by the tariff regime and low prices.