MC Daily Monsoon Tracker: Rainfall deficit narrows, reservoir deficit widens

North India gets some respite

Rainfall deficit narrowed to 17.1% until June 27, compared with 18.8% the previous day, data released by the Indian Meteorological Department showed. However, dry conditions in the previous week led to reservoir levels falling further on June 27.

Ten of the 36 states and UTs continued to witness over 50% deficiency in rainfall, with Chandigarh facing the highest levels of deficit at 91%

A spell of rain earlier this week helped narrow the deficit for north Indian states. Uttar Pradesh's deficit narrowed to 51%, while Punjab and Haryana also witnessed some respite. (see graphic)

In monsoon parlance, a normal is calculated using a long-period average of 30 years for a specific region.

A deficit is computed in percentage terms if the rainfall is below the long-period average.

The reservoir level situation worsened. Reservoir levels were down 16.7% from normal as of June 27, compared with 9% in the previous week.

Bihar and Andhra Pradesh have an over 50% deficit in reservoir levels.

A recent report pointed out that climate change was taking a toll on farmers, with 80% of marginal farmers saying they had suffered an extreme weather event in the past five years.

Economists contend that the situation can hurt farm income, agricultural output and consumer inflation. Food inflation was sticky above 8% in May and will likely stay elevated in the coming months.

Higher food inflation means that rural inflation has outstripped urban inflation for nearly a year and is likely to do so in the coming months.

High rural inflation further eats into wages, which affects the rural economy.

The agricultural sector recorded 1.4% growth in FY24, compared to 4.7% in the previous year, lower than the 3.7% long-term average.