Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit could prove to be a diplomatic challenge for Joe Biden, Xi Jinping

Nancy Pelosi (centre) after landing in downtown Taipei, Taiwan, on August 2 (Image: Twitter/@SpeakerPelosi)

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a known China-baiter, landed in Taiwan on Tuesday night sparking off the worst cross-strait tension in decades and posing a huge diplomatic challenge for both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

The renewed tension comes barely four days after US President Joe Biden told his Chinese counterpart during a two hours and 17 minutes long telephone conversation that there is no change in America’s policy on Taiwan.

As the House Speaker, Pelosi is one of the most important American leaders to land in Taiwan. She is the third public official in the Line of Succession after the President and Vice President. Newt Gingrich was the last US House Speaker to visit the island in 1997. The Chinese response at that time was mild. But its response to Pelosi’s visit is unlikely to be as mild as in the past.

The conversation between the two presidents on Friday was aimed at lowering rising tension in the Taiwan strait in recent weeks. But Biden did not guarantee he would stop Pelosi from visiting Taiwan.

The ambiguity on Biden’s part may well be part of an assessment that China’s angry rhetoric will not translate into a military confrontation. By allowing the House Speaker’s visit, the US is telling China that it will not be allowed to dictate America’s policy towards Taiwan.

Pelosi and the accompanying Congressional delegation visited Hawaii, Malaysia and Singapore. They will also visit South Korea and Japan. But in the House Speaker’s official itinerary there was no mention of Taiwan.

Xi had warned Biden not to play with fire and China threatened to take “resolute and forceful measures” if Pelosi went ahead with her visit.

Biden told reporters last week the US military thought it was not a good idea for the House Speaker to visit Taiwan now.

The Biden administration shared its security assessment with Pelosi but couldn’t prevent her from travelling to Taiwan.

In the US, the Federal government is composed of three distinct branches: legislative, executive and judiciary whose powers are vested under the Constitution in the Congress, the President and the federal courts, respectively.

As America’s President, Biden cannot dictate terms to Pelosi, the head of the US Congress.

In the Chinese political system, on the other hand, Xi Jinping is the most powerful leader. He is the President of the country, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and also the Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Xi often consults the seven-member standing committee of the politburo— China’s most powerful body where both he and the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang are members. But the communist party has direct control of all the bodies and committees and it makes Xi as general secretary of the party the most powerful leader who leads the 89 million members of the communist party and also the two million-strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The division of power in the American political system, therefore, is seldom appreciated by the Chinese leadership.

Since 1979 when the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China, Beijing has strongly opposed any move that appears to give Taiwan international legitimacy.

Though the US acknowledges Beijing as the legitimate seat of the Chinese government, it has also maintained informal contacts with Taiwan, often supplying it with sophisticated weapons to deal with a potential Chinese threat.

The last major crisis between China and the US over Taiwan surfaced in 1995 in the wake of Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to America. Beijing protested against the move by firing missiles into waters near Taiwan but after the US decided to send two aircraft carrier battle groups to the area, it decided to back off.

The situation, however, is very different now in view of the ongoing trade war and the growing rivalry between the US and China.

After the Taiwan Travel Act became law in 2018 under Donald Trump’s presidency, it encouraged a number of US officials, including Congressmen, to visit Taiwan.

Pelosi, however, has a long history of criticising the Chinese government and the communist party. She has met the Dalai Lama and other dissident leaders and pro-democracy activists of China in the past. In 1991 she visited Tiananmen Square and displayed a banner honouring the demonstrators who were killed two years earlier in the crackdown on the movement by the Chinese leadership.

The House Speaker has also been critical of China’s handling of the Hong Kong protests and its treatment of the Uighurs minority in Xinjiang. Pelosi has also been a strong advocate for strong US support for Taiwan.

China has shown its disdain for Pelosi in the past by describing her as someone who is “full of lies and disinformation.”

Experts feel Pelosi’s political stature makes Tuesday’s visit all the more provocative to the Chinese leadership.

The visit and the unfolding crisis pose a diplomatic challenge for both Xi and Biden. The Chinese President is seeking a record third term in the Chinese Communist Party’s 20^th Congress in November. A crisis over Taiwan leading to a military confrontation is the last thing he will want.

The US President too will not like to open a front with China at a time when the Ukraine war is on. Growing concerns over rising gas and food prices have affected the US economy and significantly reduced Biden’s domestic stocks. If this continues and Democrats lose the November mid-term polls, Biden will become a lame duck president.

But if the House Speaker, who is a Democrat Party member from California, had cancelled her visit, the Republicans would have taken political mileage out of it by criticising Biden for wilting under Chinese pressure.

By allowing the Pelosi visit the US government can continue to maintain its ‘“strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan. Not putting it in her official itinerary has allowed Washington to maintain that its policy towards Taiwan has not changed.

But if China decides to flex its military muscle over Taiwan, it risks the US to also respond militarily in Taiwan’s support.

To avoid a confrontation with the US, Beijing may dismiss the House Speaker’s travel to Taiwan as an unofficial visit that does not accord Taiwan any international legitimacy.

Whether this diplomatic nuancing is acceptable to China will be known by the way the Beijing leadership decides to react to deal with the unfolding crisis in the Taiwan strait.