Govt working on SL resolution to placate DMK, a tough task

The UPA government is still working on a resolution on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue in a desperate last ditch effort to get the DMK back on board. But a breakthrough looks unlikely at the moment. The UPA government is likely to move amendments to the US-sponsored resolution against Sri Lanka at the UNHRC. But moving the amendments is no easy task and will involve hectic lobbying.

The resolution, as it stands, has been 45 days in the making. It is expected to pass with more numbers than the resolution last year. Minor tinkering in the resolution may work, but pushing in intrusive language like 'genocide' or 'international inspections', as demanded by the DMK, at the very last stage is virtually impossible.

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What India would be trying to do is what even the US didn't push for and the US may not be willing to risk a collapse of the resolution at the last stage. Not just the US, India will have to persuade a large number of other countries, which is a difficult task.

All these contraints will be highlighted by Dilip Sinha, India's envoy in Geneva, during foreign office consultations in Delhi on Wednesday. This even as UPA's future hangs in balance with the DMK pulling out support.

DMK leader TR Baalu met President Pranab Mukherjee late on Tuesday night to submit his party's letter of withdrawal just over 12 hours after DMK chief Karunanidhi announced in Chennai DMK's decision of pulling out of UPA on the question of UN resolution on Sri Lanka.

"I have informed the president of our decision of walking out of UPA. No question of any rethink," Baalu said. The DMK ministers will submit their resignations to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday.

The reason why this speed of handing over the letter of withdrawal of support was shown was the position taken by the DMK. CNN-IBN has learned that the DMK has been adamant in inclusion of words 'genocide' , 'war crime' and 'international probe' in the proposed Parliament resolution. The government is willing to offer the term 'Independent' , 'credible probe' instead. But the government formula has been rejected by DMK.

So with the DMK pulling out with its 18 members, the UPA is now entirely dependent on the two UP leaders Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, both unpredictable, and with a canny ability to extract a heavy price for their help.

With the DMK pulling out, the UPA is now a minority government. Will the UPA survive till the 2014 elections or will a no confidence motion lead to snap polls this year? Speaking to IBN18 Editor-in-Chief Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manusinghvi said, "It is nothing but sensational suggestions that the government is falling tomorrow, the government is falling day after. It's a lameduck ICU."

Congress 202
NCP 9
RLD 5
Others 16
Outside support for UPA totals 49, including:
SP 22
BSP 21
RJD 3
JDS 3
UPA + outside support equals 281
The Opposition:
NDA - 152
Left + Others 88