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The opposition leaders joined the protest initiated by the Kerala government, held a day after a similar protest by Karnataka against the Centre’s alleged biased fiscal policies.
Without a PM face, the INDIA bloc’s attempts to counter the magnetic appeal of ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ is going to be a non-starter. The PM face will be as much a part of the alternative narrative that the opposition wishes to stitch, and such a key lacunae won’t help in denting BJP’s stranglehold over the Hindi heartland
After settling on the impactful I.N.D.I.A name, the opposition’s progress on a common minimum programme and seat sharing have been slow. Meanwhile, BJP – courtesy the central government – is raining one hard knock after another, leaving the “I.N.D.I.A” alliance clueless on tackling BJP’s expansive Hindu nationalism package
Much depends on the index of opposition unity that the INDIA alliance can cobble against the ruling BJP. Untested pre-poll alliances, key opposition parties like BSP not being part of the alliance, and the ambitions of constituent parties and their local leaders make one-seat one-candidate easier said than done
Ultimately, the fate of the opposition alliance will depend on the challenge that the Congress Party can mount and how it performs in the seats in which it directly confronts the BJP
Manipur didn’t get the talk time it deserved during the no-confidence motion. The PM’s speech has fired up the BJP for the coming battles with the INDIA opposition bloc. But will Manipur’s suffering be forgotten as the political discourse inevitably shifts to the assembly polls later this year?
The monsoon session gave ample hints that the parties in the INDIA grouping are burying their differences until the 2024 polls. Congress seems to have recognised that the onus of keeping the bloc united lies with it. But they are also bracing for the tonguelashing from the PM during the no-confidence motion
Who is ahead at the moment? The only numbers giving a sense of present strengths are the vote shares and seat counts of individual parties of the alliance in the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies. In Lok Sabha it is BJP by a distance, while the tables turn in assemblies. One big question lingers: Is there a swinging voter in national elections?
It’s not just in Maharashtra that the Opposition has been dealt a blow, alliances are showing strains in UP and Bihar too
PM Modi has set up a five-pillar strategy for BJP to focus its messaging. The emphasis is on tapping votes of five different and overlapping constituencies. While some elements of the strategy could become clearer in the months ahead, the push for the Uniform Civil Code has already begun
Deciding the basis for seat sharing – previous Lok Sabha or assembly poll performance – isn’t easy. Each party would prefer the seat sharing benchmark that suits it. Similarly, Index of Opposition Unity will be dented if parties like BSP are excluded from the alliance or if there are friendly fights
In the past, Congress was a major stumbling block for larger opposition unity. But the party showed a new accommodative spirit at Patna. But sustaining this won’t be easy for Congress given the strained equations with AAP and TMC, and sacrificing state unit interests for the one-seat one-candidate formula
The grand old party’s willingness to accommodate the aspirations of regional parties will decide the course of this initiative. Challenges posed by internal rivalries between AAP-Congress and TMC-Left/Congress are hard to resolve. Arriving at a one-seat, one-candidate consensus is easier said than done
To project itself as a national player and counter BJP more effectively, Congress needs more space in big states like UP, Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and TN. Regional parties are unlikely to be generous in any of these states. A situation where Congress underplays its national heft to make more space for regional parties doesn’t help its or the opposition’s cause in a national election
Congress feels ambitious again about tackling BJP head-on and ignored opposition parties crucial for the unity effort. Those wary of a Congress resurgence on their turf stayed away despite being invited. Chasing unity before 2024 polls may be futile and could help BJP polarise the polity even more sharply
