In this episode of Market Minutes, Lovisha Darad discusses about key factors that will guide market direction this week. Some of them include monthly derivatives expiry, launch of T+0 settlement cycle, and US GDP data. Meanwhile, the primary markets are also expected to be busy with 12 new IPO launches in the SME segment. Also, catch Ashwin Mehta of Ambit Capital on Voice of the Day segment. Market Minutes is a morning podcast that puts the spotlight on hot stocks, key data points, and developing trends.
Global trends, money injected by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the outcome of state elections, and RBI's interest rate decision were the major drivers behind the markets' rally last week.
FPIs purchased shares worth 116.31 billion Indian rupees ($1.42 billion) on a net basis in April, the highest since November 2022.
While the macroeconomic data indicates that the likelihood of sidestepping recession has increased, the economic engine is not expected to run at full steam in the near future
Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added.
Industrial production data for July and inflation rate for August are scheduled to be announced on Monday.
Other factors that would influence trading are global market trends, movement of the rupee and crude oil, say analysts.
Last week, the BSE Sensex advanced 1,573.91 points or 2.97 per cent, while the NSE Nifty climbed 468.55 points or 2.97 per cent.
The government had not released data for the months of April and May citing insufficient data collection amid the outbreak of coronavirus.
A clutch of macro data points, start of the fourth quarter results season and geo-political dynamics post US missile attack on Syria will determine market movement this week, experts said.
If corporate spending in the US increases on account of factors like taxes, Indian IT companies will benefit, said Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse.
The rupee today staged a smart rebound by recovering 17 paise to 67.82 against the American currency on fresh dollar selling by corporates and banks.
In key macro data to watch today, November consumer price index (CPI) and index of industrial production (IIP) for October will be released later today. Ekta Batra of CNBC has more details about what to expect.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Indranil Sengupta, chief economist –India, Bank of America Merill Lynch, says inflation in India has peaked and it will come down meaningfully in the second half of 2014.
The macro data today will most likely determine the RBI policy next week. The IIP range is between a growth of 1% and a decline of 3.5%. The range that the CPI data is working with is around 9.7% to around 10.8%.
Manishi Roychaudhuri of BNP Paribas Securities says correction in Indian market will continue in the foreseeable future. He expects the home currency, which has fallen to 63 against the US dollar, to remain weak going forward.
The Nifty and Sensex touched their life-time highs on Friday, buoyed by improvement in the macro data and better-than-expected second quarter earnings, says Hiren Ved, Director & CIO, Alchemy Capital. He believes it is the right time for long-term investors to enter the equity market.
Relief rally seen today in the market should not be misunderstood as an uptrend, as markets will remain rangebound till expiry on Thursday.
Today is the start of another truncated week for the stock market. Last week saw three sessions and this week will see four sessions from, Monday through Thursday ending with Good Friday. This is also the second week of earnings season, which hasn’t begun well so far on Friday.