The upmove in IT shares today tracked a spike in expectations of a US rate cut, fuelled by weak economic data and recent dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. Continued weakness in the Indian rupee added to the positive backdrop.
Fed officials lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point — the first cut since December — at their policy meeting Wednesday, citing the need to support a more fragile job market.
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The labour demand has softened, with unemployment risk rising and job gains slowing, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after a widely anticipated 25 basis points rate cut.
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no widespread support of a larger than 25 basis points rate cut at the FOMC September 2025 meeting.
The US Fed's 25 bps rate cut marked the first cut of President Donald Trump’s second term and came amid signs of labour market weakness and persistent inflation pressures.
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25 percent, its first cut since December 2024.
Lower interest rates ripple across stocks, bonds, real estate, and currencies. Knowing how to position yourself can help you benefit instead of being caught off guard.
The policy pivot will take place amid unrelenting pressure from President Donald Trump, who has pushed for a “big cut” this week
It is too much to expect that a small cut in interest rates could spur sluggish global GDP growth when other necessary factors are not in place
Powell's worries stem from the fact that an early rate cut could spark inflationary pressures, given that labor market trend and consumption data shows that the economy can handle higher rates for longer.
Global markets came under the fire amid broad-based selloff due to the Fed's disappointing 2025 dot-plot.
The Fed’s 25-bps rate cut aligned with market expectations, but stubbornly high inflation has prompted a more cautious approach. The central bank has raised its inflation projections and scaled back expectations for rate cuts in 2025 as it waits for greater clarity on price pressures and policy changes.
Mandal believes that the trajectory of Indian equities will hinge more on the earnings performance of India Inc than on global risks, such as the strengthening dollar.
Trump's strong stance on imposing heavy tariffs has caused markets and policymakers to stare at a déjà vu moment, reminiscent of 2018 when inflationary pressures rose throughout the year during his first term amid the trade war with China.
With Fed policymakers navigating through possible policy changes Trump's second term and sticky inflationary pressures, a more cautious stance on rate cuts is expected in 2025.
The upcoming Fed monetary policy meeting carries added significance as it will be the final one under the Biden administration. This gives greater significance to the Fed's forecasts for 2025 as the Trump administration takes office.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 97.1 percent of investors are betting on the possibility of the US Federal Reserve delivering a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut on December 18.
While a 25-basis point cut is priced in for the FOMC meeting this week, the markets are expecting a shallower easing trajectory next year and higher level of rates at the end of the loosening cycle
Powell’s remarks prompted traders to pare back expectations for a December rate cut, with the policy-sensitive yield on two-year Treasuries rising as much as eight basis points to 4.36% Thursday.
Swaps traders lowered the chance to less than 60% that the central bank reduces rates at their two-day gathering that wraps on Dec. 18 — from roughly 80% a day earlier.
Swaps traders boosted to about 80% the probability that the Fed will cut rates again on Dec. 18, up from around 56% earlier Wednesday.
US Fed Rate Cut: With the US Federal Reserve slashing key interest rates again and domestic inflation expected to ease from December onwards, the RBI could start the interest rate easing cycle in February 2025.
The US Fed is widely expected to lower the benchmark interest rate on Thursday by a quarter percentage point, a move that will come on the heels of a half-point cut in September.
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