Is India’s ‘golden phase’ with Bangladesh over? What Tarique Rahman’s win means for India

BNP’s sweeping victory in Bangladesh puts Tarique Rahman on course for premiership, raising questions for India on Hasina’s stay, border security, power trade and China ties.

• BNP's Tarique Rahman set to become Bangladesh's new PM
• India-Bangladesh ties face strain over Hasina's presence in India
• China's influence in Bangladesh expected to grow as ties cool

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Bangladesh’s likely next prime minister will inherit a relationship with India that runs on two tracks at once: a dense web of trade, power and connectivity that neither side can easily unwind, and a politically charged public mood in Bangladesh that has turned sharply sceptical of Delhi since Sheikh Hasina fled to India.

Under Sheikh Hasina, India and Bangladesh built something unusual in South Asia: steady security cooperation, rising trade, new rail links, electricity flowing both ways, and a political understanding that reduced surprises. Indian officials have often described that period, in conversations reported by The Hindu and Indian Express, as a 'golden phase' in bilateral ties.

Start with the baseline: what actually changed

BNP’s return is not a routine alternation of power.

BNP won at least 212 of 299 seats, a two-thirds majority, with Tarique Rahman expected to become prime minister.

India’s public posture has been cautious. The Ministry of External Affairs said it supports 'free, fair, inclusive and credible elections' in Bangladesh, while also confirming India did not send observers.

The most immediate India problem: Hasina is in India

Hasina has been in India since her ouster. BNP figures have publicly argued that her presence in India can damage bilateral ties. Tarique Rahman himself has framed it as a political reality Delhi cannot wish away, saying that if India 'shelter[s] a dictator,' it will 'earn the resentment' of Bangladeshis, as quoted in Business Today.

For India, extradition is not simply diplomatic; it’s also legal and political. What matters, from a strictly reported standpoint, is this: BNP leaders are signalling they want this issue on the table, and Indian officials have not indicated any shift publicly.

Why it matters for Delhi: because it can become a permanent irritant that spills into everything else, visas, trade facilitation, security cooperation, even tone at multilateral forums.

Security: the quiet cooperation India doesn’t want to lose

Under Hasina, India and Bangladesh built deep operational cooperation on border management and militant networks.

MP-IDSA (a government-linked Indian think tank) has been explicitly tracking how Bangladesh’s political transition affects India’s Northeast security environment; its July 2025 meeting report flags concerns around border crossings, extremist activity, and broader regional alignments.

BNP leaders, for their part, have tried to reassure India on this file. In an interview reported by The Indian Express, BNP’s Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said BNP would not allow activities on Bangladeshi soil that threaten India’s security.

Trade and connectivity: the ballast that makes a rupture costly

Even with politics souring, the economic relationship is large and infrastructure-heavy.

Reuters reported bilateral trade 'approaches' $18 billion, and put India-Bangladesh trade at around $13.5 billion in its February 10, 2026 dispatch on China widening its role in Bangladesh.

Power is a particularly sensitive strand. The Indian Express reported that India exported 11,933.83 million units (MU) of electricity worth $1.03 billion to Bangladesh from April 2023 to March 2024, citing trade data on India’s Department of Commerce portal. Bangladesh’s Daily Star also reported electricity imports worth about $1 billion from Adani Power in FY2023-24, citing ERPC-related figures.

MP-IDSA has also emphasised how connectivity restoration since 2011 (lines of credit, transport links) has been treated as a strategic priority by both sides.

Water, border shootings, and 'Felani': The emotional triggers

India-Bangladesh ties don’t usually break over grand strategy. They fray over issues that travel fast inside domestic politics: water-sharing, border incidents, dignity.

Business Today quoted Tarique Rahman invoking both, 'our share of the water' and 'I don’t want to see another Felani hanging,' referencing the 2011 killing of a Bangladeshi teenager at the border that became a symbol in Bangladesh.

China: The background music that’s getting louder

If India’s core worry has a single headline, it’s this: as Dhaka cools toward Delhi, Beijing finds room to expand.

Reuters reported on February 10, 2026 that China is set to widen its footprint in Bangladesh as India’s ties decline, citing growing Chinese engagement and pointing to a broader atmosphere of anti-India sentiment since 2024. Separate Indian Express commentary has also detailed the scale of China’s economic presence in Bangladesh and how 'balancing' becomes harder as partnerships deepen.

This doesn’t mean Bangladesh 'chooses China over India.' It means Dhaka may try to increase bargaining power by widening options, and India has to respond with diplomacy that competes on delivery, not nostalgia.

The 'review the Hasina-era deals' signal

After Hasina’s fall, BNP leaders publicly called for scrapping Hasina-era agreements with India, describing them as 'secret' and 'unjust,' according to Times of India coverage from August 2024.

Even if not all deals are reopened, the signal matters: some India-linked agreements could become domestic political targets.

So what does Tarique Rahman’s win mean for India, in one clean line?

It means India is moving from a relationship built around a trusted political partner (Hasina) to a relationship that will have to be managed through institutions, incentives, and crisis control, while navigating three high-friction files: Hasina’s presence in India, bilateral deals, and China’s expanding role.