Looking ahead, markets will focus on the upcoming policy decision from the Federal Reserve, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged but updated economic projections will be closely watched.
A combination of stronger dollar and higher inflationary environment in turn leading to probable rise in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve are hindrances for gold prices moving higher, despite the geo-political risk arising out of the war.
The war with Iran is accelerating a global shift towards strategic stockpiling of oil, metals and minerals, turning commodities into instruments of national power
Any renewed geopolitical escalation or prolonged disruption to tanker traffic could keep prices elevated, while sustained high oil prices also risk fuelling inflation and increasing diplomatic pressure to restore stability.
Escalating tensions in West Asia have triggered a global oil shock, with crude prices surging past $115 and raising fresh concerns over energy supply. Production cuts by Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have intensified worries about disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade. Surabhi Upadhyay speaks with Manisha Gupta on whether India could face an oil or LNG supply shock and how the global energy market may respond if the crisis deepens.
Even if the fighting ends quickly, analysts warn that damage to infrastructure, disrupted logistics and heightened risks to shipping could keep fuel prices elevated for weeks or months, affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.
If Brent crude sustains above the $90 per barrel mark, the implications for India could extend well beyond higher fuel prices. A widening current account deficit, pressure on the rupee, and a potential delay in interest-rate easing could begin to weigh on corporate earnings and market valuations.
Markets remain fixated on the US–Iran conflict as Trump has vowed to strike “very hard,” while Iran’s president apologized for regional strikes and said Iran would refrain from attacking neighbouring countries “unless attacked first”. Crude oil and aluminum stand to gain most if the conflict deepens.
If US labour market conditions remain robust, expectations for a June rate cut may fade further. Conversely, a weaker jobs report could prompt markets to recalibrate rate expectations.
On the data front, US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, along with speeches from several FOMC officials, will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut.
This comes despite a muted sentiment in global commodity prices on a firm dollar ahead of key US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting trajectory.
Markets will also watch the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump tariffs scheduled for February 20. The week ahead will be holiday-shortened with potentially thinner liquidity.
Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts.
Central banks’ gold purchases fell below 1,000 tonnes in 2025 after three record years, as high prices led to caution.
Further downside pressure on precious metals may emerge early in the week as higher CME margins come into effect on Monday, February 2.
Experts advised investors to diversify, avoid panic selling, and eye rebounds from central bank demand.
Trading pauses or delays are not entirely unheard of across global exchanges.
ETFs remain effective instruments when price discovery is orderly. When it is not, outcomes become uneven — even in rising markets. So, participating in a bull market is not only about choosing the right asset. It is also about ensuring that the chosen instrument allows the investor to actually receive the return the asset delivers.
With Iran warning that any attack would be treated as “all-out war,” markets remain alert to the risk of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global crude flows.
Silver has delivered an exceptional rally of over 200% in the past 12 months, sharply outperforming gold’s 80% rise during the same period.
The market is divided between those viewing corrections as buying opportunities and those warning of overheated conditions, an analyst said.
Globally stock markets are down and the flight to the safety of gold is up as there is a risk-off sentiment in response to Trump’s Greenland policy, the threatened tariffs on eight European countries and Europe’s hardening anti-Trump stance.
Next week, commodity traders will watch President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals.
The market is technically overextended after a sharp run-up, and short-term consolidation or volatility cannot be ruled out, an analyst said.
Hindustan Zinc share price: The sharp rise in the precious and industrial metal came after US inflation data boosted hopes for more rates cuts by the Federal Reserve.