Will March silver futures fall to Rs 2.5 lakh/kg before hitting Rs 3 lakh-mark? Analysts say short-term consolidation is possible

Silver prices

• Silver hits record highs on MCX, surging 5 percent amid global safe-haven demand
• Silver may exceed ₹3 lakh/kg if gold remains strong and the dollar stays weak.
• Silver demand up from solar panels, EVs, electronics, boosting prices

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Silver has accelerated its bull run in 2026, bucking expectations of a downturn after record returns last year. Analysts expect the rally to continue as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties persist, but advise some caution, especially when the precious metal rose 22% in 2026 itself.

March silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) jumped around 5 percent to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 2,87,990 per kilogram. Silver futures with May and July expiries also gained around 5 percent each to hit fresh lifetime highs of Rs 2,94,503 per kilogram and Rs 3,01,383 per kilogram, respectively.

The sharp rise in the precious metal came after US inflation data boosted hopes for more rates cuts by the Federal Reserve. The US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent month-on-month and 2.6 percent year-on-year in December, falling short of analysts' expectations of 0.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively, according to Reuters.

What lies ahead?

Silver has extended its rally, trading above $90/oz globally and near Rs 2.9 lakh per kg in India, reflecting strong momentum driven by safe-haven demand, geopolitical risk, and spillover strength from gold, said Justin Khoo, Senior Market Analyst - APAC, VT Market.

The analyst however noted that a decisive move above the Rs 3 lakh/kg mark is likely to be conditional rather than automatic. "The market is technically overextended after a sharp run-up, and short-term consolidation or volatility cannot be ruled out. That said, if gold sustains record levels, the dollar remains soft, and risk aversion persists, silver crossing Rs 3 lakh becomes a high-probability medium-term outcome, rather than an immediate breakout," he said.

Across multiple forecasts, silver has been in a multi-year supply deficit, meaning demand exceeds mine and recycled supply, said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza. He added that this keeps the upward pressure on prices.

What makes silver shine brighter?

"Silver is not just a store of value anymore it's essential in Solar panels (increasing consumption), Electric vehicles, Semiconductors and advanced electronics. This structural demand continues to grow and provides a fundamental floor to prices," he said.

Yadav explained that the anticipated rate cuts by the UD Federal Reserve make non-yielding metals like silver more attractive. Geopolitical uncertainty boosts safe-haven buying and weaker US dollar often lifts precious metals in local currency terms.

"Market positioning and speculative interest can drive short-term spikes which is already visible in recent price action. Very high silver prices sometimes prompt demand destruction like industries might substitute where possible if prices stay too elevated," the analyst said.

Siddharth Maurya, Founder & Managing Director at Vibhavangal Anukulakara, said that silver’s bull run seems to be unaffected even after touching lifetime highs, thanks to safe-haven demand, growth, and reduction of supply.

"Breaking the Rs 3 lakh barrier seems easy in 2026 if the global macro environment supports it. But investors must be ready for ups and downs as commodities get vulnerable to interest rate changes, changes in currencies, and profits taken," he added.

Technical view on silver:

The weekly/monthly trend in silver remains bullish overall, with higher swing highs and lows after breaking out from prolonged base levels, Yadav from Bonanza said. However, he cautioned that in the very short term, the market is extended and volatile, subject to sharp retracements as traders adjust positions following extreme moves.

"Price remains above most medium-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish bias. Oscillators (RSI etc.) on weekly charts are extended, often flashing overbought conditions, suggesting increasing odds of consolidation before fresh highs. In MCX, trend may remain upside, buy the dip could be better trading/investing strategy. Silver has support at Rs 2,40,000 and resistance at Rs 3,00,000," he said.

Also read: Hindustan Zinc shares jump 6% as silver futures cross Rs 2.8 lakh/kg; silver ETFs at record highs