Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s description sets 'expansionist' China thinking  

The word `expansionist’ in history, has not been much in vogue since Adolf Hitler and his Third Reich was confined to the dustbins of history and later when superpowers, during the Cold War, found it convenient to flex their muscles in territories that did not belong to them. At any rate, in the 21st century, the word `expansionist’ does not occur as frequently in diplomatic dialogue as it did in the last century.

Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s use of the term 'expansionist' in reference to China, without naming them directly, has set the cat among the pigeons.

In Ladakh, at the contested border and the scene of violence where 20 Indian army men perished in a medieval clash with Chinese soldiers, the Prime Minister, on a surprise visit to the border, said, "The age of expansionism is over, this is the age of development. History is witness, that expansionist forces have either lost or were forced to turn back."

The statement by the Prime Minister brought two swift responses from the normally reticent Chinese, first in Beijing and then in New Delhi. In Beijing, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said, "at present, China and India are engaged in dialogue and communication on easing the current situation through military and diplomatic channels. Under such circumstances, neither party should take any action that could complicate the situation at the border."

In New Delhi, a few hours later, Chinese embassy spokesperson Ji Rong, said in an official statement, "Calling us Expansionist is not correct." Stating that China has demarcated boundary with 12 out of its 14 neighbouring countries, the Chinese embassy spokesperson tweeted that it was “groundless to view China as `expansionist’, exaggerate and fabricate its disputes with neighbours.”

BJP sympathisers are ecstatic at the Prime Minister using the term 'expansionist'. They believe that its implications are far reaching, and the indirect barb has hit home, calling it “perhaps the most important 'geo-political' statement of the 21st Century by any international leader.”

One of India’s leading foreign policy mavens, G Parthasarathy, believes that the word has a special connotation, as countries, are, for the first time, questioning China’s hegemonistic behaviour. "This is for the first time that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have lashed out against their big neighbour and that is no small achievement,” he told this writer.

In a major blow to China, ASEAN leaders have said that a 1982 UN oceans treaty should be the basis of sovereign rights and entitlements in the South China Sea. China has repeatedly laid claim to the entire disputed South China Sea on historical grounds.

ASEAN leaders, in a recent statement,  said that disputes in South China Sea should be resolved in line with the international law, stressing on "the importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation".

The key question at hand, according to diplomatic circles in New Delhi, is this: why would China respond to a camouflaged accusation at the speed they have, particularly when it does not name them directly?

Farfetched as it may seem, the answer, perhaps, lies in the charters of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which are both separate.

The five Permanent Members of the UNSC, as per the Security Council’s charter, should be committed to World Peace, reject 'expansionism' and safeguard the territorial integrity of all the UN members.

Even though it is extremely difficult — even next to impossible — to unseat any of the five UNSC Permanent Members — China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States — theoretically, an Emergency UNGA Session can be ushered in to vote out through a two-thirds majority, any Permanent Member of the UNSC on charges of violation of its Charter. One of the key violations enshrined in the Charter is furthering 'expansionism'.

It is generally believed that China has blatantly misused its UNSC membership with its overriding agenda of territorial expansionism under the garb and camouflage of 'economic expansionism'.

The other four UNSC Permanent Members have since long watched helplessly — and perhaps with a tinge of envy — China's methods and actions. They have all, at some time or the other, backed India to join the UNSC to counter China, but have been invariably checkmated by Beijing by the virtue of its veto power.

Veteran diplomatic and former foreign secretary, Kanwal Sibal, however, believes that given the past actions of the US and some other Permanent Members of the UNSC, hauling China over the coals will be a tough — nigh impossible — job.

"But the fact is that Prime Minister Modi used the word `expansionist’ when he went to Japan for the first time in 2014 in the context of the South China Sea. In between all these years, he engaged China at the highest level, but China’s latest showing at Ladakh and ingress at various points, Finger 4, Hot Springs and Depsang among others, all suggest well planned moves. So, he is right in saying that China is an expansionist power," he told this writer in an interview.

Others like Rakesh Sood, former Ambassador and ex-Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, believes that not much will come out of UN, "because it has many countries and China has a veto," making it impossible for any action to take place even in a post-COVID-19 world where many nations are asking questions about China’s role in the spread of the pandemic, in addition to its expansionist moves in Ladakh, South China Sea and Hong Kong.

While the so-called 'limited pull back' promised by the Chinese military on Monday from several friction points in eastern Ladakh needs to be taken at face value, the fact is that the Prime Minister’s definition of an expansionist power has caught the Chinese by surprise.