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Market to react to CPI, IIP data this week, await balance of trade, FOMC minutes: Experts

This will be a holiday-shortened week and participants will first react to the macroeconomic data such as IIP and CPI in early trade on Tuesday. Going ahead, with earnings season behind us, the performance of global markets will be the focus for cues

August 16, 2022 / 09:42 AM IST
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The stock market gained nearly 2 percent and continued the winning streak for the fourth consecutive week ended on August 12. For the week, the BSE Sensex gained 1,074.85 points (1.84 percent) to end at 59,462.78, while the Nifty50 added 300.7 points (1.72 percent) to close at 17,698.2 levels.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For Nifty 17900-18000/(BSE on 60000-60300) could act as the strong resistance level. Further, momentum indicators like Stochastic and RSI indicate a strong possibility of some profit booking at higher levels. We believe that, due to the temporary overbought situation, we could see range-bound activity in the near future. On the higher side, the immediate hurdle would be 17900-18000/(60000-60300 on the BSE). On the downside, 17400-17300/(58500-58200 on BSE) could be the key supports level for the positional traders. For traders, buying on dips and sell on rallies could be the ideal strategy.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For Nifty 17900-18000/(BSE on 60000-60300) could act as the strong resistance level. Further, momentum indicators like Stochastic and RSI indicate a strong possibility of some profit-booking at higher levels. We believe that, due to the temporary overbought situation, we could see range-bound activity in the near future. On the higher side, the immediate hurdle would be 17900-18000/(60000-60300 on the BSE). On the downside, 17400-17300/(58500-58200 on BSE) could be the key supports level for the positional traders. For traders, buying on dips and sell on rallies could be the ideal strategy.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | Nifty is below a falling trendline coming down from October 2021 highs and below 78.6 per cent retracement of the entire 18600-15100 decline. The 78.6 retracement is at 17850. The zone between 17850-17900 will prove to be a major barrier for Nifty. Expect Nifty to trade gradually towards 17850-17900 where the true test of the bulls will be tested. If Nifty whistles past 17850-17900, opportunities for Nifty to move above 18600 openes up dramatically.
Manish Shah, Independent Technical Analyst | The Nifty is below a falling trendline coming down from October 2021 highs and below 78.6 percent retracement of the entire 18600-15100 decline. The 78.6 retracement is at 17850. The 17850-17900 zone will prove to be a major barrier for the Nifty. Expect it to trade gradually towards 17850-17900 where the bulls will face the true test. If the index whistles past 17850-17900, opportunities for Nifty to move above 18600 opens up dramatically.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is also a holiday-shortened one and participants will first react to the macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI in early trade on Tuesday. Going ahead, with earnings season behind us, the performance of global markets will be the focus for cues. Nifty has again reached the critical hurdle of the upper band of the broadening formation, which currently lies around the 17,800 mark and we may see some consolidation. Going ahead, buoyancy in global markets and rotational buying across sectors could help the index to surpass this hurdle and inch towards the 18,100+ zone. In case of any profit-taking, 17,150 and 17,450 levels would act as a support.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | This week will also be a truncated one and participants will first react to the macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI in early trade on Tuesday. Going ahead, with earnings season behind us, the performance of global markets will be the focus for cues. Nifty has again reached the critical hurdle of the upper band of the broadening formation, which currently lies around the 17,800 mark and we may see some consolidation. Going ahead, buoyancy in global markets and rotational buying across sectors could help the index to surpass this hurdle and inch towards the 18,100+ zone. In case of any profit-taking, 17,150 and 17,450 levels would act as a support.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The falling trendline resistance of the previous swing highs is around 17700-17800 and we have ended right around the resistance end. In case the market surpasses this hurdle, then the 78.6 percent retracement of the previous correction is around 17875. So this entire 200 points range 0f 17700-17900 is a crucial hurdle for the index and the momentum readings are overbought. So it is quite possible that our markets would see a corrective phase again anytime soon, but sometimes the index continues to trade in overbought zone and hence, traders should wait for a confirmation of any reversal before taking any contra trades. The immediate supports for Nifty are placed around 17630 and 17500 and a close below the mentioned supports would be the sign of reversal.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The falling trendline resistance of the previous swing highs is around 17700-17800 and we have ended right around the resistance end. In case the market surpasses this hurdle, then the 78.6 percent retracement of the previous correction is around 17875. So this entire 200 points range 0f 17700-17900 is a crucial hurdle for the index and the momentum readings are overbought. So it is quite possible that our markets would see a corrective phase again anytime soon, but sometimes the index continues to trade in overbought zone and hence, traders should wait for a confirmation of any reversal before taking any contra trades. The immediate supports for Nifty are placed around 17630 and 17500 and a close below the mentioned supports would be the sign of reversal.
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking | The Indian Market continued its upbeat rally ignoring any negative sentiment globally. However, Indexes are likely to witness correction in coming weeks amid high volatility and global recession concerns. On the technical front, the Nifty has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart which suggests strength in the counter. Nifty has been trading above 200-DMA as well as a super trend indicator which adds strength for upside. The short-term support for Nifty has shifted around 17450 levels, while on the upside 18000 may act as a strong hurdle. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 38000, while resistance at 40000 levels on a weekly basis.
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking | The market continued its upbeat rally ignoring negative sentiments from other markets. However, the indices are likely to witness correction in coming weeks amid high volatility and global recession concerns. On the technical front, the Nifty has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart which suggests strength in the counter. It has been trading above 200-DMA as well as a super trend indicator which adds strength for upside. The short-term support for the Nifty has shifted around 17450 levels, while on the upside 18000 may act as a strong hurdle. On the other hand, Bank nifty has support at 38000, while resistance at 40000 levels on a weekly basis.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | Markets around the globe are expected to respond to the FOMC minutes publishing next week. A close eye will be kept on the Fed's projections and discussions of inflation and recession. The market will also attempt to interpret the timeline for future rate hikes. The balance of trade figure, which is set to be declared next week, is another factor that the home market will be observing. The bulls are benefiting from strong medium-term momentum. However, the hourly RSI has tumbled behind the price and is displaying a bearish deviation which indicates that upward momentum may be going to slow in the short term. Short-term traders must liquidate some positions and wait for dips to enter. Immediate resistance is located around 17,800, while 17,600 serves as a decent support.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | Markets around the globe are expected to respond to the FOMC minutes publishing next week. A close eye will be kept on the Fed's projections and discussions of inflation and recession. The market will also attempt to interpret the timeline for future rate hikes. The balance of trade figure, which is set to be declared next week, is another factor that the home market will be observing. The bulls are benefiting from strong medium-term momentum. However, the hourly RSI has tumbled behind the price and is displaying a bearish deviation which indicates that upward momentum may be going to slow in the short term. Short-term traders must liquidate some positions and wait for dips to enter. Immediate resistance is located around 17,800, while 17,600 serves as a decent support.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Aug 16, 2022 09:42 am
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