US is playing a dangerous game in Europe at Ukraine's expense

An eventual, forced partition of Ukraine may well be under way. Or a replay of the horrors in the Balkans

Old style diplomacy is back. The peaty aroma of single malt whiskeys, the muddling of lime wedges and sugar for a hearty Caipirinha, but most of all the heady toasts with every shot of the best Polish and Russian vodkas downed purposefully to make the salutes come true! The war in Ukraine has seen to it.

The lazy luxury of armchair composition of cipher telegrams by diplomats at embassies for dispatch to their headquarters has been paused by new occurrences which challenge diplomatic ingenuity. The change has shown some stunning results in instances where the diplomats collecting information, and doing diligent reporting are committed professionals, such as at the Russian embassy in Warsaw, Poland.

In early March, they unearthed a treasure trove of information that Poland was conspiring with support from the White House to take control of parts of western Ukraine, which the Kremlin had no interest in occupying. This area would be a ripe fruit for Warsaw to pick, Poles had concluded. Imagine the mountains of caviar and the gallons of vodka which would have been consumed — not to mention other blandishments used by Russians — to obtain such priceless information!

The Russian foreign ministry sat on the intelligence for several weeks while the redoubtable Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov conferred with President Vladimir Putin how best to use the gold mine of secret details. In the end, Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki (SVR), Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, released the explosive information on April 28.

The SVR rarely, if at all, puts out any information for the media. The rationale for making an exception must have been that if the foreign ministry gave out this information, it would be discredited as Moscow propaganda, and no one would take any notice. But the SVR was different, and those in Europe who understood the far-reaching implications of this possibility sat up and took note.

Meanwhile, Polish intelligence got wind that their highly-classified plans were obtained by intrepid Russian diplomats. Russians were sure of their sources: so, while they sat on the information, they also planned militarily how to react to Warsaw’s conspiracy. Poland’s government, enraged by Russia’s access to the most guarded and secretive sources in Warsaw, ordered the expulsion of 45 diplomats from the Russian embassy in Warsaw on March 23.

Lavrov kept his cool. He is not the type who easily gets ruffled. After weighing pros and cons, he expelled the same number of Polish diplomats from Russia, but only a fortnight later. The military preparations following the scoop by the Russian embassy in Warsaw culminated in missile attacks on Lviv in Western Ukraine, near Poland on June 1. If reports are correct, the Russian attacks destroyed vital rail lines in the Lviv area through which weapons and other supplies from NATO come into Ukraine via Poland.

Large parts of western Ukraine have been relatively at peace, and have not seen many Russian attacks since the war began. Why then did Russia rain missiles on critical infrastructure in Lviv, and its neighbourhood at this point? Ten days before Russia targeted the arms transfer infrastructure in Lviv, Poland took the first steps towards what Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned about. Poland’s President Andrzej Duda travelled to Kyiv, addressed Ukraine’s Parliament and announced joint customs control of the border with Ukraine.

There are two ways of looking at this development. A positive view would be that a joint border customs arrangement would ease Ukraine’s meagre exports to the European Union via its border with Poland along western Ukraine. Conspiracy theorists in Moscow would argue that “we told you so. Our intelligence was spot on. A Customs Union is the beginning of what we predicted.” Briefing reporters on Duda’s visit, Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Oleksander Kubrakov said the two countries would set up a joint venture railway company for rail infrastructure and transport in both directions.

The last decision would be red rag for the Russians. It would aid in the movement of NATO arms from Poland to Ukraine. That explains the June 1 attack on rail lines in Lviv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was explicit about the joint decisions with Poland. “It is the beginning of our integration into the common customs space of the EU.”

Poland has agreed to take the lead in the EU and NATO dealings with Ukraine for several reasons. First, large parts of what is now western Ukraine, including the regional capital of Lviv, were part of Poland for 423 years from 1349, and again between the two world wars. Many Poles view these areas as historically part of Poland. The war in Ukraine appears to have given the Polish people a windfall chance to reclaim what they consider to be their land, and not Ukraine’s.

Second, successive post-Iron Curtain Polish Presidents have chafed at Germany’s superior status and importance within post-Cold War Europe, and its institutions. Control over western Ukraine, especially fuelled by a sense of historical entitlement to those territories, will enhance Poland’s prestige on the continent, and greatly raise its clout within the EU.

The US is abetting this dangerous move, which is tantamount to redrawing the de facto borders within Europe even if Lviv and its neighbourhood remain de jure part of Ukraine. But then Washington’s objectives in wars are usually short-term and tactical, not strategic.

Ukrainians must consider what will be left of their country if Russia takes away its eastern parts and Poland regains control over western Ukraine. An eventual, forced partition of Ukraine may well be under way. Or a replay of the horrors in the Balkans when Yugoslavia broke up 30 years ago.

KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. 

Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.