Proxy war in South China Sea a reaction to Taiwan VP’s US stop-over plans

Since China cannot stop contact between Taiwan and the US, it is countering it by ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea.(Photo: Reuters/File image)

A conflict by proxy is shaping up in the South China Sea. Whether it will flare up or die down will be determined not in the vicinity of the emerging fight, but in New York on Saturday. Again, a week later, what happens on the following Saturday in San Francisco will either add fuel to the fire or the flames will be extinguished — for now.

On the face of it, tensions have risen since August 5 when China water-cannoned a Philippines naval vessel on a supply mission for its troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed sea. It is a proxy fight. The real reason for the flare-up is the transit through New York and San Francisco of Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai Ching-te on his way to Paraguay and back for the ceremonial swearing-in of that country’s new President.

Rising Tensions

China does not want officials or political leaders in the United States of America to meet Lai or any other important Taiwanese politicians during what Beijing calls “sneaky visits by independence separatists” from its renegade province. Since China cannot, in practice, stop contact between Taiwan and the US, it is countering it by ratcheting up tensions in the South China Sea.

At the time of writing, the US political establishment is holding its cards close to its chest as far as Lai’s transit itinerary is concerned. Exactly a year ago, Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, infuriated Beijing by visiting Taipei. China raised tensions in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in at least three decades. It kept people on the breakaway island on edge by firing ballistic missiles over it and a 23-fold, daily increase in cyber-attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure in protest. In April this year, Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy, met Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen in California while she was on transit to Latin America similar to Lai’s travels this month. It was a watershed of sorts because no American of such a high political rank had met any Taiwanese President on US soil since 1979. China’s response was provocative: it sent maritime safety vessels from the south-eastern Fujian province into container routes to Taiwan with a mandate to board vessels and inspect their cargo.

Third-party Confrontations

Unlike a new kind of escalation last week involving a third country — the Philippines in this case — tensions, although heightened, have been managed during previous disputes over Taiwan’s attempts to outmanoeuvre China on the diplomatic front. If Lai had been transiting through the US this time merely as Vice President and meeting US officials or politicians, Beijing’s reactions may have been similar to past ones. However, Lai is Taiwan’s next presidential aspirant and front-runner in elections due to be held in January 2024. That makes it necessary for mainland China to choose its options for dealing with him carefully. For now, Beijing appears to have decided to have a third-party confrontation.

The next fortnight will show whether the tensions will be confined to the Philippines in the disputed sea or if it will be in addition to what China does against Taiwan and put its presidential hopeful in his place, as it were. China will not act rashly against the Philippines or use overwhelming force against Manila in any case: a US-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty is a guarantee against aggression against the Philippines. It has stood Manila in good stead for 72 years since it came into force. Bolstering the firm stand so far taken by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to preserve Manila’s sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal, two important middle powers, Japan and France, have reiterated their support for the outcome of an arbitration seven years ago against China’s claims in the South China Sea. So, the waters of this normally placid sea threaten to turn choppy any day.

The US Hand

Going by recent Chinese public pronouncements, it clearly considers the Joe Biden Administration as the instigator of potential trouble by both Tsai and her likely successor. Even as the mainland’s rulers leave open enough speculative room for the accommodation of Lai by mainland China if he is elected President, their main target will be the White House. Therefore, like the proxy war in the South China Sea, there is a fascinating media war that is ongoing for the hearts and minds of the American public. This is also somewhat unprecedented.

On July 4, the US Independence Day, Lai wrote an op-ed article in the Wall Street Journal outlining his “four pillars” strategy as the likely future President to ensure stability on the self-ruled island. Two weeks later, the Chinese government responded in the same newspaper with a stinging denunciation of Lai. Yet, it contained olive branches to Taiwan. Penned by the Spokesperson of China’s embassy in Washington, the response emphasised that mainland China is Taiwan’s biggest export market and investment destination. It further pointed out that trade between the two sides grew by over 7,000 times from 1978 to 2021. The response was a circuitous appeal to Lai to care about cross-Strait economic ties. This is a pointer that notwithstanding the issue of Chinese sovereignty vs Taiwan’s independence, bilateral economic ties could be the rationale for any modus vivendi between the two sides in the coming years. The op-ed battles have interestingly been joined by Foxconn founder Terry Gou in an article in The Washington Post. It has added to speculation that the billionaire industrialist may enter the presidential fray himself as a one-China advocate.

KP Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.