Northeast results suggest BJP’s 2024 strategies are on track. Is the opposition serious about unity?

Celebrations at BJP camp as it emerges victorious in Tripura, and Nagaland and allies to retain power in Meghalaya.

As India approaches the 2024 general elections, the state elections in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland were a major litmus test for political parties in the region. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made significant inroads in the north-eastern part of India over the last few years. The party's electoral performance in the region has been impressive, with victories in states where it has traditionally been considered weak.

Goodwill In The Northeast

The BJP's focus on development and good governance has helped it win the support of the people in the Northeast. The party has launched several development initiatives in the region, such as the Act East Policy and the North East Special Infrastructure Development Scheme (NESIDS). These initiatives have helped improve the region's infrastructure and create new employment opportunities, which has helped the BJP win the support of the people.

This round of elections in the Northeast state can be seen as a mixed bag for the BJP's campaign for 2024. While the party has managed to retain power in Tripura and improve its vote share in Nagaland, it has suffered a setback in Meghalaya.

The BJP's alliances between 2014 and 2019 with regional parties and absorption of Congress leaders has helped them win assembly elections in Assam (60/121 seats), Manipur (21/60 seats), Tripura (35/60 seats) and Arunachal Pradesh (41/60 seats) and form governments. Although they won only two seats in Meghalaya in 2018, the BJP expanded its electoral map by forming alliances with NPP and others. In Nagaland, tying up with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party has also helped BJP immensely.

Why BJP Wins

The Northeastern states have historically posed difficulties for the Congress party. Strong regional parties have dominated the political landscape in these states. The BJP's strategy of expanding its electoral map by forging alliances with smaller regional parties has proven to be a smart move.

By building alliances with smaller players, the BJP has been able to gain a foothold in states where it has traditionally been weak. For instance, in Assam, it was the AGP and the BPF, in Tripura it was the IPFT. After winning elections, the BJP has been able to engulf these smaller parties and become the dominant player in these states.

This strategy of ally-and-engulf has helped the BJP expand its support base and win elections in regions where it was previously considered weak. The BJP's strong organisational machinery in the northeastern states and the support of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have been crucial factors in the party's success in the region. The RSS, which is the parent outfit of the BJP, has been working in the Northeast for several decades and has a strong network of cadres in the region. The BJP has been able to leverage this network and build a strong party machinery in the region.

Congress's inability to form a united front against the BJP has been a key factor in the latter's success in the region. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 18 seats in the northeastern states, while the Congress won only four. Further, parties like the TMC are able to make inroads in the state at the expense of the INC and there are also a number of smaller opposition parties in the fray that end up helping the already dominant BJP.

But Worries For BJP Too

The BJP also needs to re-evaluate its overall strategy as it faces a challenge of losing support from the youth in the north and central states of India. The youth in these regions are concerned about issues like unemployment and the poor performance of the economy, which has led to a shift in their support away from the BJP.

By winning states in the Northeast and East, the BJP can demonstrate its ability to govern and deliver on development, which could help the party regain the trust of the youth in the north and central regions of the country.

There is still hope for opposition parties as they have been successful in forming alliances and coalitions in the past. For example, in Tripura, the Congress has been able to sustain its alliance with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and win a few seats. But enough reports suggest their cadres on the ground had difficulty working together.

The Congress’s win in the Sagardighi bypoll in West Bengal’s Murshidabad, Adhir Ranjan Choudhary’s backyard, after successive losses there also came about because CPM did not field a candidate. Similarly, the Congress candidate for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was able to win the Kasba Peth bypoll in Pune against the BJP, a seat that was considered a BJP stronghold.

These do demonstrate that opposition parties can still pose a challenge to the BJP at the state level, especially if they are able to work together and form alliances. But can an opposition unity project with all its unwieldiness succeed in Lok Sabha elections where PM Narendra Modi makes a virtue of not being weakened by heeding to coalition compulsions? The answer to that is still blowing in the wind.

Shamik Vatsa is a researcher at the Centre for Policy Research, Delhi. (Twitter: @ShamikJNU). Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.