Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been a great reformer of India in his tenure over the past eight years. The reforms enacted under his leadership have been extensive, and positively impacted the country's large population.
In the area of digital and financial inclusion, the India Stack, comprising world-class utility systems like Aadhaar, UPI, DigiLocker, and others, has facilitated the economic inclusion of millions of citizens previously excluded. It provides the rails for world-class innovation on top of the Stack. The India Stack has paved the way for the largest digitally-driven minimum income support scheme globally — Direct-Beneficiary-Transfer (DBT), where beneficiaries receive the money directly to their mobile-linked bank account in a matter of seconds after disbursal. A total of Rs 23 lakh-crore has been disbursed via DBT since 2014.
Physical infrastructure, too, has received a tremendous boost with investments in expressways, highways, ports, and railways. The GST system reduces India's abnormally high supply chain costs by creating a unified platform, and eliminated 17 separate taxes. The substantial collection of Rs 1.68 lakh-crore in April demonstrates the benefit of GST. Demonetisation put black money purveyors in their place, leading to a massive increase in tax collections.
These reforms have converged in the most significant step ever taken in Indian history by a Prime Minister in the social sector. Almost every Indian today has a roof over their head, water in the tap, a working toilet, access to electricity, food on the table, a gas stove, a mobile connection, a bank account with money, a road to the village, Internet connection, education for their children, and health insurance. No Prime Minister in India’s history has done as much for the poor as Narendra Modi has done in the last eight years.
Once every Indian has access to basic necessities of life, the outlook shifts from survival to a growth mindset. More than 50 million identifiable jobs have been created in the formal and informal sectors over the last eight years; evident to anyone who uses dependable databases such as the EPFO and ESI instead of conjecture. It stands to reason that a considerable increase in nominal GDP from Rs 124.7 lakh-crore in FY15 to Rs 236 lakh-crore in FY22 cannot happen without a complementary increase in employment generation.
Of course, India has suffered the inevitable decline in GDP growth following specific episodes such as demonetisation and the sudden lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic to arrest the disease and save lives. The latter also regrettably caused the migrant crisis, which in hindsight could have been avoided, but was openly dramatised by the Opposition-led governments in Maharashtra and Delhi. During the COVID-19 second wave, the shortage of oxygen and vaccines were also low points. Still, overall, Modi has led with an India-first attitude, acting to save and empower citizens. Western powers praise India for its prudent COVID-19 action and robust vaccine programme, and hold it up as an example of how democracies can work.
India's external image has begun to shine. West Asia has become India's friend, and ceased its unconditional support to Pakistan. The African continent, too, has become India's friend. Japan has deepened ties with India. The Quad has, indeed, improved India's standing. The United States views India as a partner in the Indo-Pacific to counter the threat of Russia-China — who are becoming hyphenated as the ‘Axis of evil in the modern world’, in the words of former US President Ronald Reagan.
Protecting citizens' lives overseas is one of Modi's utmost priorities during a crisis. This is evident in multiple scenarios, including Ukraine, West Asia, and during the onset of the global pandemic. India has been an exceptional neighbour, especially in a crisis as seen in the cases of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. It is one of the few countries to provide unconditional humanitarian aid to the latter.
After 75 years of Independence, India has put Pakistan in place. Today, the foreign affairs establishment doesn't allude to Pakistan except in compelling response when it makes untrue statements about India at the international stage. India stands taller today as an emerging global power because of the initiatives and stance taken by the Modi-led government.
The Indian military has been strengthened as well. The increased procurement of state-of-the-art equipment from the US, the increased firepower in the air force with the addition of Rafale, and the unabashed focus on the welfare of soldiers by providing the right equipment and ammunition to counter threats at the border are evident in the effective way India stood up to China at the Galwan valley, and other regions. Under Modi's leadership, India has declared to the world that it will defend its boundaries at any cost; unlike earlier episodes in our history.
The focus on Atmanirbhar India, the PLI schemes in manufacturing, and indigenous defence production will make India stronger. While all these developments stand tall, and have improved the nation's outlook tremendously, there is a four-part unfinished agenda that Modi must undertake in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. They are:
Justice System Reforms: Simply put, the promise of effective justice as a foundational democratic pillar in the Constitution remains unavailable to the ordinary citizen. Courts are overburdened with multi-year and -decade cases — media reports suggest this number exceeds 40 million cases. Constitutional matters have piled up in the Supreme Court. People do not expect justice in criminal or civil issues for one generation. As the nation celebrates 75 years of Independence, the lack of the availability of justice in a reasonable timeframe is gaping.
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Failure of justice disproportionately impacts the poor, and downtrodden. Today, many under-trials languish in jail, many of whom have completed and exceeded the longest term if found guilty. People have been arrested on charges of terrorism and sedition, jailed for 15-20 years, and released due to lack of evidence. Vendetta politics is a prime factor here by all political parties. Modi must ensure adequate capacity, and reforms using technology to address these gaps speedily.
Today, India has 18 judges/million population, having risen a paltry 14 during Independence when the nation needs at least 50. Surprisingly, even with the low capacity, vacancies in high courts are at 30 percent. It is a shame that India cannot fill these vacancies even with this massive human capital. A democracy without an adequate justice system cannot fulfil constitutional mandates, which must now become an utmost priority.
Tax Terrorism And Inadequate Regulatory Capacity: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s 2014 election manifesto promised tackling tax terrorism. However, over the last eight years, more powers have been invested in tax authorities to harass the minority of India’s income taxpayers. Disputes have increased from around Rs 4.5 lakh-crore in 2014 to around Rs 12 lakh-crore. Despite schemes to reduce disputes, and increased appeal limits, perverse assessments continue to haunt people. Honest taxpayers are picked up for scrutiny without actual evidence, repeatedly, and without recourse. Tax codes are passed in Parliament without inviting debate, giving more unilateral power to the tax authorities.
Tax terrorism has become the number one issue for business in India, and urgent reforms are needed. Tax officials must be held accountable for their assessments where reversals in higher courts during appeals can be marked against their performance. Data suggests that more than 75 percent appeal cases are lost by the tax authorities. Special tax benches are required for speedy justice. The increased fear of tax terrorism among businesses is counter-productive to the vision of economic growth.
The tribunals and regulatory systems suffer from inadequate capacity, and disdain for service to citizens. Regulators such as the NCLT have inadequate capacity, unfulfilled positions which unduly delays judicial decisions, and permissions sought by citizens.
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The RBI is in a rut where it doesn’t even respond to applicants; if it does, it is brusque, and often to communicate the rejection of applications without adequate reasons. Instead, people are forced to spend extra budgets on the Big 4 consultants who will make the application on their behalf, and walk the corridors to get matters resolved. Bankers tell their clients openly that once they apply to the regulator, following up is impossible because of the lack of timely response on the regulators' side. Many regulators do not follow a consultative approach for changing regulations. These are serious issues that hinder the constitutional rights of citizens to pursue gainful employment, and entrepreneurship.
Lack Of A Cohesive Urban Policy: India is urbanising rapidly, and is probably 40 percent urban today. The world, on average, is at 55 percent, while China is at 60 percent. In any economy, urban areas are engines of growth, jobs, and opportunity. Sadly, India has failed to recognise this. There are constitutional powers for the panchayat raj and other rural governing bodies. Urban areas, where the bulk of tax collections and high-growth employment emanate, are not accorded the same rights. State and Union governments direct large expenditure budgets towards the rural areas, but not urban.
Each city needs a full-time five-year mayor who can dedicate their time to developing cities sustainably. In many cities, the corporations have been bereft of elected representatives, and lack accountability to the citizens they are meant to serve.
In Bengaluru, for instance, the mayor changes every year with hardly any time to effect change. Corporations have become dysfunctional and corrupt, and must be broken up and rearranged with proper governance mechanisms. Urban infrastructure has deteriorated, unable to keep pace with the population explosion, causing unacceptable traffic jams and reducing productivity. Urban citizens are forced to endure pathetic roads and polluted air daily, and the metro systems languish due to a lack of project management. The Smart City project is inadequate.
The whole urban policy needs a relook with focused investments keeping sustainability and environmental protection at its core. Modi has admirably taken care of the rural areas and citizens; the urban areas now require the same focus and commitment. India cannot realise its dreams of growing into a $5 trillion economy on the way to $10 trillion this decade without a cohesive urban policy.
Lack Of Adequate Interaction Before Enacting Policy: Modi should ensure that any new policy that his government wishes to pass must be placed in the public domain, an adequate debate is generated, and experts are invited to point out the pros and cons of the proposed policy, after which political decisions are taken. It is appropriate for every Cabinet minister to have 8-10 people in an advisory council to seek their expert opinions on policies. This will ensure policies are well-rounded and grounded, and not unilaterally drafted by bureaucrats who may lack exposure and working experience in business and economic matters. In a representative democracy, interaction is warranted and, indeed, necessary as the will of the people must be reflected in policy and law. Ministers are not masters of citizens, but representatives.
In the US, for instance, there are forums for a sustained dialogue between the political leadership and other stakeholders before enacting policy decisions. This process ensures that the proposed policy responds to the nation's needs, and is broadly accepted by the citizenry. India’s Parliament fails to conduct an entire debate on even the most crucial of affairs, the Union Budget. Instead, it is a hasty, truncated, and, almost always, a guillotined affair.
This lack of productive dialogue has led to the most perverse laws being passed that take away the citizen's rights. Parliamentarians who have taken an oath to protect their citizens against the onslaught of an authoritarian bureaucracy are left helpless because they do not read budget proposals, expenditure documents, and other matters, nor bring in experts to advise. There is a mounting need for external dialogue before passing laws.
On an overall basis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done a remarkable job in changing the contours of the nation, ensuring development reaches every corner, and instituting the rails to ensure that India grows faster. To meet the needs of the 21st century and India's accelerated growth trajectory, the barriers to growth and innovation, justice, responsible taxation, and effective regulation must be demolished. These reforms are needed urgently, both from the perspective of the election cycle, and for India to fulfil its potential as a Top 3 economy this decade.
As a strong and focused leader, naturally citizens’ expectations are much higher from Modi; the hope is that he succeeds in creating a strong, prosperous India where the dreams of every Indian is capable of fruition.
Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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