It’s a gruesome count; 16 so far in 2022, not including the young bank manager from Rajasthan shot at his office on June 2, by a terrorist who does not even seem to have bothered to conceal his face, barring ironically, a COVID-19 mandated face mask.
The rest of the list is tragic in their very ordinariness, and include, among others, school teachers, a popular medical shop owner, and a TV actor, all in all indicating a random targeting of Hindus. The headlines are already screaming — is this the next exodus? It seems so, as reports indicate that some one thousand-odd have begun moving out, from families who moved to Kashmir in around 2010 as part of schemes launched by the government. For years, they stayed safe and worked well with the locals. That is important to remember; as it is important to remember that Kashmiri Muslims have also been killed by terrorists.
The Rising Attacks
Terrorists are now said to be ‘hybrid’ – which means that they’re not given much training, and given tasks such as throwing a grenade or firing a pistol point blank at unprotected, unsuspecting persons like a teacher going about their daily life. This is different from the terror operations carried out earlier in the Valley, where heavily-armed terrorists stormed army camps or attacked convoys—both which required extensive training and planning.
The current rash of attacks can be done by anyone sufficiently imbibed with hate. That hate is freely available online, pushed by not just Pakistan and its groups, but also by many other groups. Just check your social media feed and Hindu-Muslim debates and polarising views are at an all-time high.
This is not to say that the terrorists and terror modules are not around. The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is an important player, and has a presence behind the various groups that have come up, such as the TRF (Terrorist Resistance Front) or the KFF (Kashmir Freedom Fighters) who claimed the recent killing. Then of course terrorists from Pakistan are still being arrested. Stitching this all together is a social media blitz, aimed at keeping suspicions high, and motivating young people who are already left with nothing much to do.
Patrons Are Under Pressure
With their back to the wall and facing a strong intelligence grid, terrorists have been finding it hard to operate, with 62 killed this year, including 15 Pakistani nationals. In addition, groups that have been sponsoring terror from across the border are increasing finding it hard. Pakistan’s free-riding terrorist strategy has taken a beating as the world is tired of its exploits in Afghanistan, and in India as well, especially in Kashmir. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a 39-member international body tasked with cutting off terror funding routes, has refused to give Pakistan a clean chit, and continues to examine its financial system for its many leakages and frauds. That means funding terrorists and terror activities has become vastly more difficult, the hawala system notwithstanding.
Terrorists, particularly the trainers, the guides, the preachers, and those providing the arms, like to get paid. Arising from all this, the Pakistan army chief has declared that it is possible to ‘bury’ the past, and move on. To his credit, he particularly understands the costs that Pakistan has to pay as terrorism turns on its own creator, with 46 attacks this year, mostly against law enforcement personnel, in which 79 people lost their lives. Pakistan is now trying to talk them into peace, and not succeeding terribly.
The Threat To Terror
India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA) has been cracking down on terrorist financing on this side, on a scale not seen before. It’s also been dealing with the groups usually involved, like the Jamaat-e-Islami which has made its millions out of instability. The group is now under threat investigations from State agencies, even though it is alleged to have deep roots in the bureaucracy.
Then there are the failed politicians who have been put under detention; and their party workers, who resent their complete irrelevance. What terrorists fear most is the slow loss of popular local support. Kashmiris are only now protesting the killing of their own people, including not just policeman Saifullah Qadri, but also that of a special police officer and his twin brother, with massive crowds turning up in solidarity against militancy. Now others have begun to speak up, against the killing of Hindus, and urging them to stay. This is the single-greatest threat to terror.
Their Biggest Advantages
The terrorists have on their side, the unsuspecting sympathisers on social media, who are worsening matters by assuming that all Kashmiris are on the side of terror. They’re not; but it is also true that they’re not doing enough to prevent the exodus. The outrage on Twitter and other social media platforms does not help the Pandits.
Then are the issues of Hindu-Muslim divide — like the Gyanvapi mosque — which are used (or misused) by some Kashmiri politicians to whip up their support base. The greater danger here is that such statements hugely benefit the terrorists. If the Pandits yet again leave the Valley, it will reflect poorly on the government, even as criticism is levelled against employment schemes that don’t give Pandits the freedom to relocate. A sense of weakness will at one stroke remove the budding opposition to militancy from within the Union Territory.
There is another development that is no less dangerous. The J&K Police are being provided military grade weapons in a bid to make them the primary counter-terrorist force, replacing the highly-experienced Rashtriya Rifles battalions, which is probably one of the best counter-terrorism forces in the world. While strengthening the police is key to security at the state/UT level, and freeing up the army vital to national security, this is not a move to be undertaken at this point, when the situation is on an extremely delicate balance. This is the time to lay more roots, for the Pandits and everyone else, rather than pull up what has worked well.
As anger grows, it is also up to every Kashmiri to come out on to the streets, and fight for the Hindus. That will not just stop the terrorists, but it will give Kashmiris themselves a sense of who they are and where they want to go.
Tara Kartha is Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.
Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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