OPINION | From Fantasy Cricket to Forecast GDP: A better game for India

GDP

India’s recent moves to restrict money-based gaming, curb lottery-like weekly index options, and tighten regulations on offshore betting aim to achieve a single, positive goal: protect households, maintain market integrity, and keep financial flows within the formal economy. These are wise actions for a system that has expanded faster than many expected just five years ago. The question now is not whether those steps were correct; it’s how to build on them—how to balance a young nation’s desire for immediacy with the slow process of capital formation and policy planning.

Let’s start with culture. A smartphone in every hand, UPI in every pocket, and reels in every spare minute have rewired the feedback loops of daily life. Winners who succeed quickly are applauded; patience rarely trends. That doesn’t make today’s participants reckless. It makes them human in an environment that rewards instant outcomes. Asking this generation to “be patient” while removing near-term outlets for risk will be a poor behavioural fit. A healthier approach is to turn the need for quick feedback into something constructive—into signals that refine policy, enhance business planning, and teach risk without destroying savings.

This is what event-based, onshore, tightly supervised markets can accomplish. They are not casinos; they are civic tools. Instead of gambling on spectacle, participants take small, fully funded positions on measurable, economy-related outcomes—prices determined by official data that become public probabilities. The excitement of being right remains, but the outcome is social: the country gains real-time insight into inflation risks, economic momentum, financial conditions, expectations, or weather stress. In other words, dopamine turns into data.

To be convincing, the product set must be concise and useful—no laundry lists or gimmicks. A compact “Core Five” works: CPI (headline with one core band) as a monthly update on inflation; GST collections as a monthly indicator of nominal demand and fiscal health; weekly power-demand averages as real-time gauges of industry activity and weather stress; monthly UPI transaction value as a leading indicator of household spending and liquidity; and seasonal monsoon rainfall bands to monitor agriculture and food-price risks. Each metric is based on official data and addresses a simple question—“above or below a threshold?”—or provides a continuous prediction of the outcome, turning it into a tradable probability that the public can grasp and institutions can use.

Why this matters?

These prices become real-time expectations that inform policy and monetary decisions. The central bank gains timely insight into inflation risk (CPI) and demand trends (GST, UPI), improving its rate, liquidity, and communication strategies. The finance ministry uses GST-implied probabilities for revenue forecasts, shaping fiscal deficit and borrowing plans. Markets can hedge their main risks instead of speculating: bond desks hedge inflation and fiscal uncertainty through CPI and fiscal revenue data; equity investors rely on growth indicators (power demand, UPI) and GDP outlooks; commodity traders and lenders use monsoon forecasts to manage supply and rural income shocks. In short, five high-frequency indicators can turn quick risk assessments into valuable, onshore signals for policy and hedging.

With the “what” defined, the “how” should be simple. Guardrails should protect without paralyzing. Think light touch, high effect:
* Small, fully funded tickets with no leverage—maximum loss equals the stake.
* INR-only, KYC-compliant, onshore platforms keep flows within rules and benefits within the economy.
* Public settlement sources and calendars reduce disputes.
* Basic position limits and anomaly surveillance prevent cornering without over-engineering.

What would this deliver in practice?

First, better nowcasting for policymakers. Imagine entering a monetary policy meeting with a live term structure of CPI probabilities or a fiscal review with a traded likelihood of hitting a GST threshold. These crowdsourced probabilities complement surveys and models, highlight shifts in expectations, and provide early warnings. Over time, “price vs. outcome” histories become public audits of how well markets and ministries interpret data.

Second, usable hedges for the real economy. Lenders, utilities, rural banks, or payments firms can hedge inflation, heat waves, drought, or seasonal spending surges without exotic derivatives.

Third, safer, smarter learning for households. Young participants still get quick feedback—but on CPI, GST, power demand, and rainfall impacts—not on pure speculation.

Event markets, if well-designed—anchored to public data, capped exposure, and focused on macro and climate events—can minimize gamification and manipulation while aligning with legal norms. By separating the thrill of expressing a view from chasing spectacle, these markets reduce offshore flight, where leverage and opacity heighten risk. Broad aggregates like CPI, GST, and rainfall data, supported by surveillance and position caps, make manipulation hard and data revisions manageable.

If this succeeds, the benefits will outlast any single contract. A generation will see CPI and GST probabilities as essential as a weather forecast. Policy will reflect clearer expectations. Companies will hedge shocks that now surprise earnings. Retail investors will internalize the patterns that make patient investing easier. India doesn’t need to kill quick feedback; it needs to connect that spark to national decision-making. By turning dopamine into data—through a compact, event-based market with sensible guardrails—we can protect families, improve policy, and keep the excitement where it belongs: within the rules and in service of the real economy.

(V Shunmugam is Partner, MCQube.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.