OPINION | BNP may be the pre-poll favourite in Bangladesh’s election, but don’t write off the Jamaat

The Jamaat stands tall in Bangladesh.

If there is so little excitement in the world’s largest democracy over the general elections being held next door on February 12, it is probably because the Awami League is not in the fray. The pro-India party has been debarred because of the large-scale massacre of Bangladeshis during the 2024 uprising which toppled Sheikh Hasina and forced her to flee to India. But Hasina’s shadow still looms over the whole poll exercise like a ghost which the country is trying to exorcise but can’t.

The AL’s absence has dented the credibility of the polls. But all the blame can’t be laid at the Mohammad Yunus-led Interim Administration’s door. Hasina played such havoc with her country that many believe there is a case for eliminating her AL from the contest.  She won the 2008 polls fair and square but blatantly rigged the contests in 2014, 2019 and 2024, with India unfailingly playing along with the coverup because anything that New Delhi wished was her command. She was easily the most obliging and durable stooge New Delhi ever had the luxury of having at its beck and call in South Asia, much to China’s, America’s and Pakistan’s envy.

Ahead of polling on Thursday, even as the much-hated Hasina is consigned to a hideout, there are heart-warming reports of millions of ordinary Bangladeshis gleefully gearing up to exercise their franchise, secure in the knowledge that their votes will be actually counted – unlike the three previous farcical general elections when ballots were dumped in rivers or left to rot in government warehouses -- to decide who the interim administration will hand over power to for the next five years.

Expectation about Tarique Rahman’s victory

Besides the AL’s absence in the power race, another key reason for the disinterest and apathy in India over the polls in Bangladesh, evident from coverage in the print, electronic and social media, is the foregone conclusion that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party will sweep the elections and Tarique Rahman would inevitably become the Prime Minister, exactly 20 years after his mother, Khaleda Zia, helmed the nation from 2001 to 2006.

A BNP government headed by Rahman would, no doubt, suit India’s security-cum-diplomatic establishment in post AL-Hasina-less Bangladesh, as explained in my previous article, Will the prodigal’s return impart stability? dated December 24, which disclosed details of India and BNP making peace with each other on an equal footing through a structured diplomatic dialogue in Dhaka and London. The gist of my piece was that Rahman returned to Dhaka from London only after reaching a tacit understanding with South Block.

All the surveys so far predict a landslide victory for BNP; some forecasts even projecting 200 plus seats for the BNP out of 300. But New Delhi mustn’t take its eyes off the Jamaat-e-Islami – India’s bug-bear although its resemblance to the Bharatiya Janata Party is eerily unmistakeable – which has dug its heels and could play spoiler. The religion-centric, BJP-like party has the capability to upset the BNP’s – and India’s – applecart.

Why Jamaat is on a strong wicket

Today the Jamaat stands tall in Bangladesh for two main reasons. Firstly, it did not crumble under the Hasina-led Awami League’s no-holds-barred onslaught that did not spare even its women cadre; no other political party in South Asia has weathered the full force of a vengeful regime that the Jamaat has without wincing or falling at the tyrant’s feet. Half a dozen key Jamaat leaders were sent to the gallows. It now claims that it rode out the storm because Allah was on its side! Agnostics might find the assertion amusing but it will ring in the ears and echo in the hearts and minds of the conservative Muslim nation’s electorate more than any political slogan.

Secondly, unlike the two biggest political parties which have ruled the country so far -- the Awami League and the BNP -- the Jamaat is not tainted by corruption charges. In that sense, it’s not a party of pickpockets, burglars and robbers, in sharp contrast to the BNP whose governance record, exactly like the Awami League’s, is tarred by unlimited fiscal impropriety. To be honest, neither Begum had a moral compass. Because of their squeaky-clean image, Jamaat candidates are capable of punching much above their weight in the battle of the ballot and unexpectedly knocking out adversaries.

Rahman, who is being projected as the frontrunner, has confidently announced that the BNP is all set to sweep the polls and he expects the Jamaat to be a worthy Opposition party because no democracy can function without an opposition. He has also turned down the Jamaat’s offer of a unity government, which is a sign of over-confidence and immaturity. Experienced political leaders keep their cards close to their chest, fearing the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip. But a novice has to sometimes eat his own words.

Keeping Awami League out of the election is unfair

I think the biggest weakness, and an avoidable one at that, of the Bangladesh elections is the elimination of the Awami League from the contest by design. Hasina was no doubt a tyrant; nothing illustrates the Biblical saying ‘look how the mighty have fallen” better than her downfall, humiliation and pathetic existence in exile at the mercy of another country. But ordinary Bangladeshis, who have every right to believe in the Awami League’s ideology, are being prevented from casting their votes for the party of their choice – and that’s very wrong. Voters can’t be punished for the sins of their leaders.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics.

(Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.)