Skymet cuts 2018 monsoon estimate to 92%, says conditions not favourable

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Weather forecasting agency Skymet has revised its monsoon forecast for 2018 to 92 percent of the long period average (LPA) from the earlier normal monsoon prediction, considering the present scenario.

“As of now, the oceanic parameters are not at all favourable for enhancing monsoon rain during the second half of the season. Both the rainiest pockets of Northeast India and West Coast are likely to perform poorer than usual,” Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said.

The weather forecasting agency explains that sea surface warming is continuing in the Pacific Ocean, indicating an evolving El Nino.

Skymet Updates #Monsoon2018 Forecast To 92 Percent: https://t.co/8xj5A270Nr#Weather#WeatherForecast#Monsoon#WeatherOutlook#WeatherUpdate@livemint@ETNOWlivepic.twitter.com/RvW9kdcrfc

— SkymetWeather (@SkymetWeather) August 1, 2018

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has not influenced Monsoon 2018 so far and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), after making its appearance during the onset phase, has also gone into silent mode. It may not become active until mid-September or even later.

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While the Southwest Monsoon made a timely onset, it ended with slightly below normal rainfall at 95 percent of the LPA for June. The Southwest Monsoon is likely to go into a prolonged weak phase during August.

Considering these factors, Skymet Weather has forecasted August monsoon rain at 88 percent and September at 93 percent of the LPA.

Skymet said the June-September monsoon rainfall stood at 92 percent of long-term average.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is also expected to change its forecast, according to CNBC TV18. 

The updated forecast brings along waves of worries as two-thirds of India depends on a farm-based income. Nearly 60 percent of the country’s farms lack irrigation facilities, leaving millions of farmers dependent on the rains.

The monsoon is critical to replenish 81 reservoirs necessary for power generation, irrigation and drinking. About half of India's farm output comes from summer sown kharif crops such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals.