Maharashtra exit poll predictions: What do they mean for Mahayuti and MVA?

Several pollsters released their predictions for the closely-fought assembly polls in Maharashtra as voting concluded on November 20.

Exit polls on Wednesday predicted a close fight in Maharashtra between Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) with the BJP-led alliance holding an edge in the state.

Several pollsters released their predictions for the closely-fought assembly polls in Maharashtra as voting concluded on November 20.

A poll of seven exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti of BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP will win 151 seats while the MVA comprising Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar's NCP will be restricted to 129 seats. The majority mark in the state is 145.

The predictions, if they hold true, will come as a shot in the arm for the BJP-led alliance which saw a massive erosion of seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections.

Here's what the exit poll predictions mean for Maharashtra elections, in case they do hold on November 23:

Here are the factors that may helped Mahayuti clinch a victory:

Ladki Bahin Yojana: The scheme, dubbed as a "game changer" by the ruling alliance, provides Rs 1,500 a month to women who are between the ages of 21 to 65 years and whose annual family income is less than Rs 2.5 lakh. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde said at least 2.26 crore women have benefited from the scheme. The Mahayuti has also promised to increase the monthly benefit to Rs 2,100 if it returns to power, This scheme, particularly in rural areas where economic distress is more pronounced, can help Mahayuti garner more women votes too. The Ladli Behna scheme in Madhya Pradesh, which inspired the Ladki Bahin Yojana, worked wonders for the BJP in the "tiger state" of India.

RSS support: A big factor that could help BJP in these polls is active support by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), whose cadres stepped up the campaign efforts. The party reaped the benefits of RSS ground support in the recent Haryana elections too. In Maharashtra, meetings were held across wards and villages by RSS volunteers, especially in constituencies where the BJP was weak.

A battle of perception: Who is the real NCP? Who is the real Shiv Sena? The political discourse of Maharashtra has been dominated by these two pertinent questions ever since the two regional behemoths suffered a vertical split. Sharad Pawar has been claiming the NCP's legacy. Afterall, he is the founder and supremo. But his nephew Ajit Pawar took away the nuts and bolts of the party, including the name and symbol. Similarly, Eknath Shinde claims to be the new Shiv Sena face that will take the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray forward. Uddhav Thackeray, who is the actual heir of Balasaheb's legacy, is struggling to prove otherwise. If the predictions hold, then it will give a vote of confidence to both Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde who are trying to carve out their own path - and with it, the real legacy of their respective parties.

Strong OBC consolidation: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan “Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain', coupled with the Mahayuti’s popular women scheme, may have transcended caste barriers to bring rich dividend for the Mahayuti, show exit polls

Vidarbha factor: The Vidarbha region, with 62 seats in the 288-member house, is the second-largest region in Maharashtra. Traditionally a stronghold of the BJP, the region saw a significant shift in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when the MVA won seven out of 10 Lok Sabha seats. Some exit polls have given an edge to Mahayuti in the region, which is often called the gateway to political power in Maharashtra.

What did 2024 exit polls predict?

Peoples Pulse predicted that Maharashtra would remain with NDA's Mahayuti alliance (175-195) while Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) would bag between 85 to 112 seats. Matrize has forecast that Mahayut will be in power in Maharashtra after bagging between 150-170 seats while MVA will get around 110-130 seats. Meanwhile, P-Marq said the Mahayuti is projected to win between 137-157 seats against MVA's 126-146.

According to the News 24-Chanakya exit poll, incumbent Mahayuti alliance will return to power with bumper wins on 152-160 seats. On the other hand, Congress-led MVA is likely to bag 130-138 seats out of 288 Assembly constituencies.

Poll Diary has predicted a clear win for the BJP-led alliance with Mahayuti winning 122-186 seats while the MVA would win 69-121 seats.

Stakes are high in Maharashtra, which has seen three governments, three chief ministers, and four deputy chief ministers since the 2019 Assembly election.