Lok Sabha election 2024: How delimitation in Assam puts parties in a fix for naming candidates

In August 2023, the Election Commission published its final report on the delimitation in Assam.

The delimitation exercise conducted last year forced the BJP to revise its candidate list in Assam, prompting a revision a day after initially announcing 195 candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, the Congress has postponed its plan to declare candidates for the 14 seats in the state.

What is Assam delimitation exercise?

In August 2023, the Election Commission published its final report on the delimitation in Assam. Delimitation is the process of redrawing the boundaries of Lok Sabha and state Assembly seats to reflect changes in the population.

Initially, the Election Commission's (EC's) draft retained the number of assembly constituencies in Assam at 126 and Lok Sabha seats at 14. However, in the final order, the existing nomenclature of 19 assembly constituencies and one parliamentary constituency was revised.

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"One Parliamentary and some assembly constituencies gets paired names such as, Darrang-Udalgiri, Hajo- Sualkuchi, Boko-Chaygaon, Nagaon-Batadraba, Bhowanipur-Sorbhog, Algapur-Katlichera, in view of the demand from members of the public," the press release read.

Impact on BJP

According to the first list, the BJP will contest 11 Lok Sabha seats and has left two seats for allies Asom Gana Parishad and one seat for United People's Party Liberal (UPPL). AGP will contest Dhubri and Barpeta seats. UUPL will put up a candidate in Kokrajhar.

The BJP overlooked the delimitation process, leading to errors in their initial list of candidates. Seats such as Mangaldai and Kaliabor, which are no longer Lok Sabha constituencies, were mentioned in the first list. According to the revised list, Dilip Saikia will contest from Darrang Udalguri, Amar Sing Tisso from Diphu, Ranjit Dutta from Tezpur. Meanwhile, Suresh Bora will contest from Nagaon, and Kamakhya Prasad Tasa will fight from Kaziranga.

Reports suggest that the delimitation will benefit the saffron party. According to the final delimitation order, the number of constituencies in Muslim-majority districts has been merged with other districts, while those inhabited by indigenous groups have increased. Of the 31 Muslim MLAs elected to the Assam assembly, none belong to the BJP and its allies. Leaders such as Badruddin Ajmal, head of the All India United Democratic Front, feared that the delimitation would result in a reduction of Muslim seats. It is speculated that the BJP may win these seats, which were changed from Muslim-dominated to SC strongholds after the delimitation.

Roadblock for Congress

The changes due to the delimitation process left two Congress parliamentarians Kaliabor MP Gaurav Gogoi and Nagaon MP Pradyut Bordolo in a difficult position. Both are vying for the Nagaon seat, while Barpeta MP Abdul Khaleque wants a ticket from Dhubri.

The BJP brass is reportedly keen on fielding Samaguri MLA Rakibul Hussain from the seat. “Three-and-a-half Assembly seats from Kaliabor (as Kaziranga was called previously) were merged into Nagaon, while another three-and-a-half segments from Nagaon were merged with Kaziranga, leading to reshuffling in both seats. Gogoi and Bordoloi are committed to the party’s ideology and the party leadership will take a final decision on who will contest from the seat… Personally, I want them to contest from the two seats,” Assam Congress chief Bhupen Borah told The Indian Express.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP in Assam increased its tally from 7 in 2014 to 9. While All India United Democratic Front won one seat, one seat was won by Independents in Assam. AGP drew blank and the Congress bagged three seats. The changed political realities post the delimitation exercise is expected to benefit the BJP, which additionally will lead to an increase in BJP's tally nationally.