IMD projects normal monsoon for this year, El Niño impact likely in second half

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, on April 11, the country can expect regular rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the developing El Nino conditions.

"India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent (with an error margin of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm," M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a press conference.

This forecast comes as a relief for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains for crop production.

The likelihood of normal to above-average rainfall is 67%, said M. Mohapatra, IMD's director general of meteorology.

He stated that from December 2022 to March 2023, there was less snow than usual over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia.

A smaller amount of snow in the northern hemisphere is thought to favour India's subsequent southwest monsoon rainfall.

On El Niño effect

"If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of a positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere," Mohapatra said.

From 2019, India has seen normal to above-average monsoon rainfall for four years in a row.

Mohapatra said that during the southwest monsoon season normal to below-average rainfall is expected over portions of northwest India, west-central India, and the northeast areas.

"Normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the peninsular region, adjoining the east-central, east, northeast areas and some parts of northwest India," he said.

The Met department head said El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season and its impact may be felt in the second half.

He, however, added that not all El Nino years are bad monsoon years and that 40 per cent of the El Nino years in the past (1951-2022) received normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall.

Leading meteorologists predicted that during the southwest monsoon season, favourable IOD conditions will likely emerge. El Nino, the warming of the Pacific Ocean waters close to South America, is linked to a weakening of the monsoon winds and decreased rainfall in India.

The difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern portions of the Indian Ocean, close to Africa and Indonesia, is used to define the IOD. A positive IOD is seen as favourable for the Indian monsoon.

According to figures from IMD, India received 971.8 mm of rain during the monsoon season in 2019, 961.4 mm in 2020, 874.5 mm in 2021, and 924.8 mm in 2022.

The country recorded 804.1 mm of precipitation in the season in 2018, 845.9 mm in 2017, 864.4 mm in 2016 and 765.8 mm in 2015.

52 percent of India's net cultivated area is dependent on rainfed agriculture, making it a crucial part of the country's agricultural landscape. This practise is essential to India's food security and economic stability since it accounts for around 40% of the nation's total food production.

Rabi crops were destroyed by unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March, which cost thousands of farmers their livelihoods.

The administration asserted that despite the unseasonal rains, wheat production was unaffected.

India, the second-largest producer of wheat in the world, decided to halt wheat exports in May of last year after an early assault of heatwaves adversely affected wheat production.

The government said in March of this year that the wheat export ban would last as long as the nation did not feel secure enough in its domestic supply to meet its needs for food security.