Existential crisis for Congress in Bihar? Defection buzz, wipeout threat and a long political decline

All six MLAs of the Congress in Bihar are said to be in talks with the JD(U). (File: PTI)

• Six Congress MLAs in Bihar may switch to JD(U), risking zero Congress presence.
• Congress has steadily declined in Bihar, now holding just six seats out of 243.
• Defections would be a historic low for Congress in Bihar post-Independence.

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Barely two months after the NDA returned to power in Bihar with a thumping mandate, political churn in the state has once again put the spotlight on the Congress' shrinking footprint in what was once one of its strongest bastions.

Sources in the ruling alliance told The Indian Express that six Congress legislators are exploring a switch to the JD(U), a move which if materialises, would leave the Congress without a single MLA in the 243-member Assembly. Such a scenario would be unprecedented for the party in Bihar's post-Independence history.

In the November 2025 Assembly elections, the NDA swept 202 seats, with the BJP emerging as the single largest party with 89 seats and the JD(U) close behind at 85. The Opposition Mahagathbandhan was reduced to just 35 seats, of which the RJD accounted for 25. The Congress, despite contesting 61 seats, managed to win only six.

Those six MLAs represent Manihari, Valmiki Nagar, Chanpatia, Araria, Kishanganj and Forbesganj. Congress insiders concede that unease within the Legislature Party has been visible for weeks, with MLAs skipping organisational programmes, including the party's traditional 'Dahi Chura' feast at the Sadaqat Ashram in Patna and a recent meeting linked to the 'MGNREGA Bachao' campaign.

A senior JD(U) leader claimed that dissatisfaction among Congress legislators had reached a tipping point. "They feel abandoned by their own organisation and see no political future staying put. They are in touch with us," the leader said, adding that the party's numbers could soon tilt decisively in JD(U)'s favour as compared to the BJP within the NDA.

Congress leaders, however, have dismissed the reports as speculative. Former CLP leader Shakeel Ahmad Khan said there was "no truth" to claims of an imminent defection, while AICC secretary for Bihar Shahnawaz Alam accused the NDA of trying to distract attention from the Congress' campaign against the repeal of MGNREGA.

Yet, the very plausibility of such a defection speaks to a deeper reality about the Congress' steady erosion in Bihar over three decades.

The Congress ruled Bihar almost uninterrupted from Independence until 1990, producing chief ministers such as Srikrishna Sinha, Bindeshwari Dubey and Bhagwat Jha Azad. In the 1985 Assembly elections, the party won 196 of 324 seats, a high point that now appears distant.

The Mandal movement, the rise of socialist politics under Lalu Prasad Yadav, and later Nitish Kumar's consolidation of backward caste coalitions hollowed out the Congress' social base. By 2000, the party had slipped to 23 seats.

In 2005, it was reduced to 10, and despite a brief revival to 27 seats in 2010, the decline resumed thereafter.

In 2015, riding on the Mahagathbandhan wave, the Congress won 27 seats again, but the gains did not hold. In 2020, it fell to 19 seats while contesting 70. Five years later, the tally has dropped to just six, with the party's strike rate and vote transferability emerging as liabilities even for alliance partners.

Electoral data shows a similar trend in vote share. From the mid-1980s, when the Congress commanded well over 40 per cent of the vote in Bihar, its share has steadily shrunk to single digits in several regions, surviving largely on minority-dominated pockets such as Seemanchal. Even there, the party has increasingly ceded ground to the RJD and regional outfits.

Political observers point out that the Congress' decline in Bihar has been driven not just by social churn but by prolonged organisational drift. Unlike the BJP and the JD(U), which invested in cadre-building and leadership, the Congress has relied heavily on alliances to remain electorally relevant.

This dependence has come at a cost. Within the Mahagathbandhan, the Congress has often been viewed as a weak link, struggling to convert seats even when the alliance performs well. The 2025 results, where the RJD retained a core base while the Congress was nearly wiped out, have sharpened this perception.

At the same time, there is talk of a churn within the NDA itself, with reports of Rashtriya Lok Morcha MLAs being in touch with the BJP and speculation about the return of RCP Singh to the JD(U). For the JD(U), absorbing Congress MLAs would further consolidate Nitish Kumar's standing within the NDA and also let his party reclaim the title of the bigger partner within the alliance from the BJP.

But unlike the NDA, where negotiations are more about prestige and positioning, the Congress' predicament is existential. Losing its last MLAs would symbolically mark the end of its journey as a legislative force in a state it once ruled unchallenged.