Elections 2024: How Haryana verdict will alter dynamics in Maharashtra and Jharkhand

Rahul Gandhi, Congress MP, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha. (File Photo/PTI)

Defying all exit poll predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party on Tuesday registered an emphatic win in the Haryana elections and is now set to form a government in the state for the third consecutive term. The victory has allowed the BJP to regain the momentum after a below-par performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

The result, a decisive victory in a key state in the Hindi heartland, comes as a shot in the arm for the BJP a month ahead of elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand – two states which are set to witness a high-pitched battle between the BJP and INDIA bloc parties. While the Mahayuti comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) is in power in Maharashtra, the JMM-Congress-RJD is in power in Jharkhand.

High-Stakes Battles

Both states will witness a battle of prestige between the BJP and Opposition parties after months of acrimony. In Jharkhand, Chief Minister Hemant Soren was arrested by the ED and jailed in connection with a money-laundering scam for six months before being released on bail this year. He clearly has a score to settle with the BJP and has led the charge against the Centre on the misuse of central agencies for political vendetta.

The past five years in Maharashtra were far more tumultuous, witnessing a mid-term regime change in December 2022, and two vertical splits in the MVA’s NCP and Shiv Sena, in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The state will see the Mahayuti take on the MVA in a battle that will decide the political supremacy not just among the rival blocs but also the warring factions on either side.

Narrative Boost for BJP

The Haryana boost, thus, comes at an opportune time for the BJP. Since the Lok Sabha election results, which saw BJP’s tally drop to 240 from 303 in 2019, the Congress (with 99 seats) has asserted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP have been pushed to the brink. Parallelly, they have also sought to position Rahul Gandhi as a master strategist whose caste census push has left the BJP floundering for answers.

However, the Haryana verdict dispels the notion that the BJP has lost its core support base. On the contrary, an increase in BJP’s vote share to 39.94% from 36.49% in 2019 shows that its social engineering of consolidating Dalits, SCs, STs and non-Jat OBCs had worked despite Rahul Gandhi’s push for a caste census and a campaign to increase reservations.

Haryana reposing faith in BJP also solidifies the position of PM Modi and Amit Shah in the BJP and also adds credence to the BJP’s campaign centred around welfare schemes and ‘Modi ki Guarantee’.

Congress’ Alliance Troubles

The Congress’ Haryana debacle, much of its own doing, will also leave the Congress on a weaker footing with its allies, especially when it comes to discussing leadership and seat-sharing. Maharashtra ally Shiv Sena (UBT) was among the first to say that the loss in Haryana, despite the decade-long anti-incumbency against the BJP, was because of Congress’ overconfidence and advised introspection regarding its poll strategy.

Had the verdict been on the lines of what exit polls suggested, the Congress would have gained an upper hand in seeking a higher share of seats to contest in Maharashtra and Jharkhand polls. However, the defeat has also allowed allies to arm-twist the Congress and seek higher allocation.

“What is important is that there was a fertile ground to win. They need to introspect why they lose whenever there is a direct fight. They similarly lost in Madhya Pradesh. For Maharashtra, seat-sharing talks are on. But with the new reality in Haryana, we will also look at that," Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Priyanka Chaturvedi said after the poll results.

Perhaps the biggest dilemma for the Congress is to decide how it shapes its campaign in the poll-bound states going ahead. The party contested the Haryana issues on local issues like farmers’ unrest, Jat anger, wrestlers’ protest and the Agnipath scheme, but failed. On the other hand, the BJP’s successful social engineering has proven that Rahul’s larger ‘Samvidhan bachao’ campaign at the national level has faded after the June 4 verdict.