BMC elections: Why INDIA bloc minus Congress is good news for Mahayuti in Mumbai

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation is setting up 10,231 polling stations across the city to cater to its 10.3 millions voters.

• Congress allies with VBA, RSP, and RPI for Mumbai civic polls
• Congress cadres fear weakened contest in BJP strongholds due to seat-sharing.
• Split opposition may help BJP consolidate votes in key Mumbai wards

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The Congress's U-turn, scrapping its decision to go solo in the upcoming Mumbai civic elections, has stunned the party's rank and file in the city.

Congress had earlier claimed that it would contest the January 15 polls solo on all 227 wards. However, this week, it joined hands with Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), allocating it 62 seats. It has allocated 10 seats to the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh (RSP) and two to the Republican Party of India (Gavai faction).

Why decision may hurt Congress

The Congress move to ally with VBA and other small allies in the Mumbai civic election indicates a breakdown of the Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The seat-sharing arrangement with the VBA has come as a shock to the Mumbai Congress cadre, as the party has reportedly allotted more than 10 wards to the VBA in each of the six Lok Sabha constituencies.

According to PTI, senior leaders pointed out that never has such an important decision concerning the Mumbai unit been announced by the state Congress president. The city unit president Varsha Gaikwad, however, said she is happy with the alliance and the seat pact.

A senior Congress functionary told PTI that sections of the city leadership had an understanding with the ruling BJP to safeguard their personal interests.

"Giving wards in the Prabhadevi-Mahim belt to the VBA is beyond comprehension. The VBA, which is making its civic poll debut, has been allotted seats in areas that have no Dalit settlements," he said.

Interestingly, many of these wards are considered BJP strongholds, prompting analysts to suggest that the Congress may have conceded these areas without a serious contest. The Congress, on the other hand, believes the move will bring together Marathas, OBCs, Dalits and the traditional Muslim voters.

However, the organisational machinery of the Congress in Mumbai has weakened over the years and VBA remains relatively new with less entrenched booth-level presence. This may hurt the Congress as the BJP and its allies have stronger mobilising structures in Mumbai.

Meanwhile, the Thackeray brothers (Uddhav and Raj) have reunited for the BMC and second, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) factions led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar have united for the civic body polls in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad.

The Congress is the only party in the Opposition alliance that is largely charting its own course with its allies moving in different directions to pursue strategies to preserve their hold in areas considered to be their turf.

The absence of a united opposition front could reinforce the narrative of Congress being indecisive and electorally weak in Maharashtra’s urban centres.

Also, anti-BJP votes are likely to split between Congress, the Uddhav Sena and smaller parties, reducing the opposition’s overall strike rate.

A divided Congress–UBT may also allow Mahayuti to consolidate votes and position itself as the only decisive political force in Mumbai.

Significance of Mumbai civic polls

In Mumbai, Asia’s richest municipal corporation, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, known as the BMC, has been under an administrator since February 2022. With Rs.74,427 crore as its budget for 2025-26, Mumbai civic election also carries political significance. The BMC elections have largely to do with civic issues for the city and suburbs of Mumbai, but the elections are closely watched by even those who do not have stakes in it directly.

This is also the first BMC election that comes after the split in Shiv Sena, which had largely dominated the Mumbai civic body. As a result of the 2017 split, the Sena faction led by former Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde ended up with the highest number of corporators.