Bihar’s big fight: 5 factors that will decide winner in high-stakes Nitish vs Tejashwi battle

Bihar will vote in two phases to elect a new assembly on November 6 and November 11.

For the first time in 20 years, Bihar will face its shortest election in two phases on November 6 and 11. Counting of votes will be held on November 14 and the new government will take shape by November 22, when the tenure of the current Assembly concludes.

The 2025 election pits the NDA led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar against the Mahagathbandhan under RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. Political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party is also in the fray this time, hoping to disrupt the two-horse race by contesting all 243 assembly seats.

While the NDA hopes that its delivery of government schemes and Nitish’s positioning as ‘Sushasan Babu’ will help it secure another term in office, the Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD is hopeful of turning the tide and return to power after a two-decade-long hiatus.

As stakeholders pull out all stops to woo voters with lofty promises and rhetoric, here are five key factors that will prove crucial in deciding the poll outcome come November 14:

Caste

Caste dynamics that have long defined Bihar’s politics may once again steer the course of the electoral battlefield. Based on 2023 Bihar caste survey, it is estimated that upper castes consist of Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars, and Kayasthas which comprise 15-16% of the state’s population. The survey stated that  36% of the state’s total population belongs to the EBC category, comprising a total of 112 castes.

This time parties have not only fielded candidates from dominant castes but have also calibrated diverse caste combinations to counter caste hegemony across regions. The BJP and JD(U) are each contesting 101 seats.

The Bihar CM is said to have considerable influence among the EBC voters. His JD(U) has fielded 37 candidates from the OBC community (36.6%) and 22 candidates from the EBC community (21.8%). Also, 15 candidates from the SC community (14.9%) and 1 candidate from the ST community (1.0%) are in the poll fray. It has also distributed tickets to 22 (21.8%) candidates from the upper castes.

Meanwhile, the BJP gave 49 tickets (48.5%) to upper-caste candidates. It fielded 34 candidates (33.7%) from the OBC community. Only 10 EBC candidates (9.9%) and 12 SC candidates (11.9%) are in the poll fray from the BJP.

Catering to its traditional vote bank, the RJD has distributed tickets to 51 Yadavs. The party has also fielded candidates from upper-caste and EBC communities. Meanwhile, the Congress has attempted to broaden the alliance's appeal by fielding 34% upper caste and 15%  NYOBC/EBC candidates.

The NDA promises Rs 10 lakh assistance to members of the EBCs and a commission under a retired Supreme Court judge to assess welfare measures. On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan proposes an EBC Atrocities Prevention Act and higher reservations — 30% for EBCs, 20% for SCs, and proportional increases for STs.

Mahagathbandhan’s M-Y fortress

The RJD has doubled down on its Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) base. Yadavs have received 37 per cent of its tickets- and Muslims 13 per cent. Half of RJD's candidates hail from the M-Y bloc.

Parties have given only 34 Muslim candidates tickets for the polls, even as Muslims account for 17.7% of the state’s population. The RJD has fielded 18 (12.58%) Muslim candidates. The Congress has fielded 10 Muslim candidates while the BJP has fielded none.

Both alliances are trying to consolidate their core votes rather than chasing swing voters or building broader coalitions.

Migrant workers

According to reports, around 2.5 to 3.1 crore Biharis work outside the state, including 80-90 lakh who migrate annually for work in mostly unorganised sectors. Both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan (opposition grand alliance) have urged migrant workers to "stay back and vote," after the Chhath Puja.

It was estimated that nearly 70 lakh Bihari migrant workers returned home for the Chhath festival on October 27-28.  According to Bihar's Economic Survey 2024, over 3 crore people from Bihar live and work outside the state. Delhi-NCR hosts the largest share of migrants (12%), followed by Gujarat (8%), Maharashtra (7%), Haryana (5%), and Punjab (4%).

These migrant workers have traditionally been RJD voters. It is being said that if the migrant workers stay back, it will hurt the NDA’s poll prospects. However, in 2005 and 2010, higher migrant turnout after the Chhath Puja helped NDA secure victories. In 2020 too, migrant voters contributed to a 6% increase in voter turnout and helped NDA win 125 seats. The BJP  been engaging with Bihari migrant workers in 70 cities across Delhi, Gujarat, and Maharashtra since July. It has set up travel and financial aid networks to help them return home and vote.

At the heart of the election campaign is the promise to provide jobs. In its manifesto, the NDA promised to create one crore jobs over the next five years. The Mahagathbandhan too has promised one government job to each family in the state.

The voter turnout, thus, will be a crucial number to watch out for.

Women

A Moneycontrol analysis showed that across the state, the female share of the electorate rose from 47.2 percent in 2019 to 47.7 percent in 2024. Historically, JD(U) has tended to perform better in constituencies where women’s participation is higher. In 2020, even as its overall strike rate fell, women-heavy seats still made up 56 percent of its victory.  It was said to be a decisive factor for the NDA in the 2020 Assembly elections, particularly in regions such as Mithilanchal, Champaran, Tirhut and Saran, even as the JD(U) lost ground elsewhere.

Meanwhile, over the last three cycles, the BJP’s vote share in women-dominant seats has averaged 51.8 percent, according to the Moneycontrol analysis.

Ahead of the elections, both the alliances have tried to woo women with their manifestos. Both seek to empower women economically — the NDA through entrepreneurship and skill-building, and the Mahagathbandhan via income security and employment guarantees.

The Prashant Kishor factor

In a state long dominated by two alliances, former poll strategist Prashant Kishor has positioned his Jan Suraaj Party as a disruptor. His campaign highlights governance issues and alleged failures of dominant parties rather than caste-based politics.

One reason for the promises of employment opportunities in the manifestos of the two alliances is believed to be as an attempt to counter Kishor’s claims that the ruling parties of Bihar have not addressed its most basic needs.